I dunno where Nix stands as far as rankings,nor have I looked closely at all of the potential QBs in 2-3 rounds. But I too like Nix. A Question, if we trade back to a team say 15–20 , would we also get a 2round pick?
On the classic draft value chart the number ten pick is worth 1300 points while the 15th is worth 1050 and number 20 is worth 850. Using that chart as a guide trading with the Colts at 15 would leave a value of 250 which is the cost of pick number 68, the fourth in round three. The Steelers are now at number twenty and trading with them would leave a value of 450 which represents pick number 45 near the middle of the second round. Draft Pick Value Chart (patriots.com) According to one report from CBS.com the Colts don't need an OT nor do the Seahawks or Jaguars at spots 16 and 17. The number 18 Bengals, 19 Rams and Steelers all do, so if there is a viable OT expected around after a tradeback the sweet spot would be in places 15 or 16 and 17 yielding second rounders at 60 and 55 respectively.
Excellent points. I am a big proponent of trading down a bit. Further, there is too much hope that at least 4 QB will be drafted before the tenth pick which I think is unrealistic. The top two OL and top two WR will be gone by then, as may be two QB, the rest is a crap shot.
Funny you say that. I was looking at potential teams that might want to move up for a QB ahead of the Vikings. There are definitely teams from 13-22 that I could see making a splash that would include a second with the possibility of more. If Nabers and Alt are off the board and someone wants to move up and give us a second. I’m all for it! Grab a OL in the first and Bo Nix in the second to sit behind ARod for a year or two.
I love the thinking but honestly the majority of good QBs are drafted early first round…sure Purdy is a great example that it can happen, Dak was a fourth round pick, Russell Wilson was a third rounder, but most are first round…looking at the QBs left in the playoffs you have Goff and Baker first overall, Love, Stroud, Allen, Mahomes, Lamar all first round…only Purdy wasn’t. on top of that, we’ve drafted mid round QBs and they all sucked…Clemens, Petty, Morgan etc yes we’ve whiffed on Sanchez Darnold and Wilson but overwhelmingly if we need a new QB it’s gotta be a first round pick not saying that’s what we should do this year but AR isn’t going to be a very long term answer for us…next year and maybe one more after that. This years first should be on OT or WR and then the third rounder on either of those spots and we can deal with QB next draft most likely…I don’t think I’d waste a third round pick on another probable bust QB…especially if we don’t have a second rounder
Agreed. Would just add that the vast majority of QBs who turn out to be good aren't just first round picks, but 1st overall picks. Not exactly breaking news, but the drop off from 1st overall to any following pick is even larger than most think.
Like anything, you can't really make a "general rule" about this. A lot of 1st round QBs were drafted by teams that didn't know how to identify good ones and/or develop them properly. I'd say that's more the issue than where a QB is drafted. The Jets consistently fail to get their FQB because they don't know how to properly evaluate them, and even if they did find one who might work out, they don't build their offensive system around him, or they draft the a guy who doesn't have the skill set to fit into the system they insist on running. IOW, it's not as much a QB talent failure as it is an organizational failure.
Yup for sure…there are many factors involved…first and foremost the college QB has to have the physical skillset, then once he does, he needs to have played enough college ball, and preferably against good enough competition, to be able to develop key skills like how to read a defense, how to get a feel for the pass rush, etc. All that is hard enough to evaluate, as evidenced by the high bust rate with drafted QBs. That being said, I totally agree that you also have to have the right coaching staff who knows how to pair the QB with the right offensive system (i.e., look how the Ravens ran so much RPO stuff with Lamar in his earlier years) that accentuates their skills and hides or minimizes their flaws. Then, on top of all that, you also need to have first and foremost a good to great OL so that your new QB isn’t trying to learn the NFL speed and game while also running for his life every drop back, and then almost as important, you need to have a couple of go to weapons…can be a stud WR like Mahomes had with Hill as well as Kelce, or can be a stud RB, and preferably you need at least 2 but really maybe 3 viable options. IF you can do all that well, you can develop a QB….and then it’ll be on the QB to deliver. I feel like with Sanchez, we did give him a great OL and a great running game, and he had some good receivers to throw to, but in the end, he just wasn’t a very good QB and his accuracy sucked. With Darnold, we didn’t have good players on his offense for the most part…sub-par OL, sub-par receivers outside of a few nice plays from Robbie Anderson, but overall, the talent around him sucked. Same with Wilson. No wonder we’ve never developed a good QB since the Pennington days…
Yes, simply due to demand at the position... look how many were overdrafted with teams looking to find "that guy" before someone else. supply and demand....
We haven't had a first round QB actually sit and learn since Pennington either. Gotta get those young men on the field to sell those jerseys and PSLs. Darnold is the one I feel worst for. Really good guy and easy to root for but there was some seriously dumb stuff going on in the GM office those years. He deserved another shot. Instead, Joe lied right to his face and his parents.
you have to remember though that first round QBs also get the most time to develop and the most opportunity - if a team spends a first rounder on you then they are going to bend over backwards to make it work (unless you are Trey Lance) and you'll be given plenty of rope - a mid-round QB is going to struggle to get reps and will find it hard to break into the team
Completely agree with you guys. Finding a QB mid rounds is a VERY long shot. I know everyone wants to replicate what GB did having a QB learn under Rodgers, like what Love did, but Love was a consensus 1st round pick. His sophomore year was excellent, not unlike what Zach did in his jr year. And he has all the tools, like Zach. You are not going to bring in someone in 3d/4th round with these tools. Ironically the GB model would be someone with Zach's ability sitting behind Rodgers, but that ship has sailed. And we can't really spend a 1st round pick on a QB to have someone capable learning from Aaron. Even a 3d or a 4th round pick with miniscule probability of success is better spent towards OL or WR given the holes we have. At this point with old regime in place, we made our bed. The way I see it now, we need to use 1st, 3d, and 4th round picks to improve the team for this year. Next year, we'll see. Who knows, we may finish on the bottom again, JD and Saleh let go, and new regime will have a high 1st round pick to get a QB. But now, all premium assets need to be spent to improve for 2024.
This is the unfortunate reality. I don't like it and it wouldn't be my choice, but recent moves over the past couple of years dictate that you go for it this year, pull out all the stops. Can't half-ass it or.....well, nevermind. The Jets will half ass it and we'll find out.
Hopefully when we go 8-9 and miss the playoffs en route to a Rodgers retirement, we get a new regime in here that understands patience with a young QB from the start.
BPA at 2 positions in rounds 1, 3, 4, 5 WR and O line. I don't give a shit how they make that happen, this draft has to produce players at those 2 positions to make contributions right away. They hooked their wagon to AR for next year, fine, but I don't want to hear some bullshit they took player X now because in 2 years they may lose a key player, fuck that...
If he got it he'd have done a better job at his job by this point. I can't really say that someone "gets it" when they punt on an entire year because an ego needed to be protected by not having a true veteran backup QB option in case a 39 year old QB suffered an injury.
The issue is always when you take a top 10 Quarterback teams want to play him immediately and it’s just not a great idea. Young inexperienced quarterbacks need to sit at least one season to develop and still carry that confidence of being a drafted nfl quarterback. If Darnold or Wilson who have the tools to be good would have sit behind a vet for a season to be humbled yet know their time will come but need to work for it. They probably would have been franchise QBs. But now they got rushed and their confidence is shattered and are barely able to keep a back up job in the NFL. This is why we need to grab a rookie this year. I love Bo Nix to develop behind Rodgers this year and possibly next. For this to happen we’d have to make some moves. Trade back from 10 and pick up a 2nd rounder take him. Then the rest of the draft use for picks that can help the squad next season.
