The High to Low spread is $54,065,748 AAV & 55 QBR points so actually matches up pretty well. The discrepancy issue is ofc the clustering of wages or if you prefer the QB wage scale of either paying franchise money or having them on a Rookie contract with very little middle ground. At the end of the day you are paying for performance so QBR is a pretty good overall indicator but when you match QBR ranking against the 33 actual contracts currently in play from Hurts down to Purdy you do get a better idea of which teams have bought a lemon; So Zach might be trash but we're paying him as such unlike the Titans, Broncos, Giants and Browns as well as the Raiders and Saints.
I’ll say this…watching Russell Wilson last night against the chiefs…he looked terrible…no better than Zach…
He was terrible against the Chiefs last night. The other games this season he's been okay to very good, but the Broncos defense was historically bad, and that's why they're 1-4. But you get more clicks for blaming him than the defense, so the narrative has been set. The funny thing is if they had a league-average defense, they probably beat us and Washington, so they'd be 3-2 right now, and the narrative would be that Payton fixed him.
If a highly paid professional does his job poorly should he not be open to criticism? Let's not sue the surgeon who amputates the wrong leg because he studied very hard, got good grades and he needs time to polish his performance. When a bridge falls down, killing dozens, because the engineer made an error in a critical weight bearing calculation, let's just pat him on the back because he got most of the other calculations right.
Jeez…I love stats, and I fully believe that in the long run the stats show a great picture of what a player is. But this is such a classic example of having to create some subjective “mitigate negative plays” type minutia stat to justify a belief. How about we just watch the player and look at the tried and true tested stats that do a pretty good job of showing how good or bad a player is playing? For QB, the shit that matters is completion rate, yards per game, more TDs and fewer picks, fewer sacks, etc. QB rating is the NFL’s way of putting that all together, and while it’s a bit unclear (at least to me) as to how exactly it’s computed, it seems to work pretty well as the guys who have higher QB ratings are generally better than the guys who have lower ratings. The eye test matches the stats. Of course, stats aren’t the whole story…so for example that throw at the end of the half actually helps Zach’s stats in completion rate and yards, but was absolutely a bad play that should never have happened. Conversely, missing Conklin getting open for a TD because he never threw the ball because he didn’t see him didn’t hurt his stats exactly because he didn’t throw the ball, but absolutely was a bad play. And he had LOTS of those types of leaving yards on the field plays for example in the Patriots game…and they cost us the game. So while some of this stuff may be interesting, I just tend to go for the simpler the better … Occum’s Razor type logic. I don’t care what minutia stat shows that Zach isn’t the worst QB at something…in the big picture, he’s been the worst QB. Quite literally. This year he’s shown a bit of improvement mostly in eliminating those yips on the layup throws…he’s taking more conservative throws, and the combo of those two things have made a very nice improvement in his completion rate, which to me is one of the most important QB stats. He still doesn’t throw for a lot of yards and he’s still not throwing TDs…he’s got 4 in 5 games. In no measure is that good. So he still has a long way to go. To me, he’s improved from worst in the league to just pretty much a bottom 10 QB…freaking CJ Stroud as a rookie on a bad team is playing way better than Zach. That surprised me. But there are a bunch of QBs looking pretty much like Zach right now…so I would say he’s bottom 10…hope he continues to get better, but the fact that he can’t see the field and process fast I think are critical flaws that I’m not sure he can overcome. He just doesn’t have it. I don’t know if it can be coached up…he’s in his third year, the speed of the game should not be a surprise any longer…
Zach problem is…he unravels. Cowboys 3 INT 4th qtr Chiefs 4Q fumble. Broncos halftime throw inbounds Broncos 4Q INT. It’s a consistent theme. Let’s not make excuses. Everything else looks fine given he was overdrafted and now developing. Not sure you can coach out these clear dumbo columbo decisions he makes.
Zach Wilson slots in just above “Browning Nagle” class where QB’s are concerned. Jets fans would take shots at Mahomes for bad games even if he brought us a couple titles. That’s a fact. Way, way less shots than they take at franchise wreckers like Wilson, but they’d take them all the same. This is spot on. His brain just misfires at least 3-4 times a game, and they can and often have been game changers.
I'm a numbers guy too and agree with your premise. Is his completion % better well yes, but the team is 2-3 and his W-L record is abysmal as is his HC and GM... as others commented and I have over time, he is consistently inconsistent, period. Unless that changes, he will be what you see...
I agree with much of what you say here, especially that stats often don't give the true picture. I've said this myself many times. And I agree with your examples where those two bad plays against the Broncos didn't get accurately reflected (if reflected at all in the case of the missed EZ pass to Conklin) accurately. And also that there are other plays like that we can point to that don't accurately capture Zach's play on the field. That said, what you don't mention is that there are other things and plays that Zach has executed that are positive that also aren't captured or measured accurately. Things like him greatly improving his accuracy on short throws/screens; making quicker decisions; improved reading of the defense. This isn't to say that these things can't be improved - and they need to be - but they're also things that his detractors never seem to mention...it's just all negative, all the time. All of this is why I push back on assertions that "prove" he's a bust and shouldn't even be a backup which some here have posted, even recently. TO put this another way, I believe that if you took the current starting QBs from all 32 teams and put them up in a "draft" right now, Zach would not be the 32nd QB taken, even though based on certain stats that's where he ranks. I'd say he'd likely be taken in the 20-25 range right now. Finally, stats aside, according to the "eye test" you rely on pretty heavily, it's clear that Zach has improved, but he has to continue to improve, and hopefully not take any steps backwards. This game against the Eagles will be another good test to see whether the improvements are solidly part of his game now, or if he reverts back to "Bad Zach".
