Zach Wilson vs Denver: A Breakdown

Sorry for this being a little later than normal, work just wasn't cooperating with my TGG schedule.

All in all, I thought Zach was meh against the Broncos while watching the games live. Not great, but not bad. Which, to be fair to Zach, is better than what most of us have come to expect and I do think he's continuing to show signs of growth. He's also showing some of the issues that have caused him to be one of the worst starting QBs in the league during his first 2 years. All we can hope for is he continues to grow and develop as we progress though the year and corrects some of his issues that keep popping up on the tape. Again, his stats aren't great but we didn't need him to have gaudy stats when Breece runs for 170+.

Anyway, let's get into it, link to every throw from Zach here.

1st Quarter:
14:49, 2nd & 11: Jets come out in a 21 personnel package in a 2 back gun look. Bawden goes in motion to the top of the screen. Looks to be a quick hitter to either Conklin or Breece, he maybe even could've hit Bawden who ran a sort of wheel route after going in motion. Nothing is really open though and Zach gets "sacked". I put sacked in quotations because this play shows why we'll never get another roughing call. 42 (Bonitto) gets around AVT and grabs Zach's face mask as he sacks him. Should've been a penalty.

13:42, 3rd & 18: Jets come out in 11 personnel in an empty set (2x3). Hard to tell what the route concepts are as they all go out of screen but Zach doesn't like what he sees and hits MC in the flat for a gain of 9. (1-1, 9 yards)

12:48, 1st & 10: Jets start this drive in great field position (Denver's 20) after the strip by Irv Charles on the punt return. Jets come out in 21 personnel again but have Bawden lined up outside in a 4 wide 2x2 formation (didn't realize this during the game, wtf?). Lazard runs a slant from the left slot and gets past his man, great throw from Zach in a good spot and on time for a gain of 11. Well done. (2-2, 20 yards)

11:32, 2nd & Goal: This pay might have been Zach's biggest miss of the game. Jets come out in 21 personnel again, offset I formation. GW runs a drag from the bottom of the screen and looking at it from this angle, it just looks like a high pass to GW that wasn't a terrible throw but not a perfect one. However, looking at the All-22 angle, he misses Conklin for a wide open TD on this play. All-22 angle here. Awful read by Zach. This should've been a lay-up TD to Conklin. (2-3, 20 yards)

11:27, 3rd & Goal: 11 personnel in a 3x1 formation, trips to the bottom of the screen. I think Zach wants to go to Conklin here on the seam route but it's covered up so Zach tries to hit Cobb on a zig route. Falls incomplete. Really tough to start at Denver's 20 and settle for a FG here. (2-4, 20 yards)

7:34, 1st & 10: Jets come out in 11 personnel, 3x1 formation, trips to the bottom of the screen. Love this play call on 1st down. It's essentially a bubble screen to Breece to the trips side of the formation where he's got Lazard, Conklin, and Cobb as his lead blockers. Zach throws a good ball to Breece in the flat and the blockers do a good enough job of creating a whole for Breece for a gain of 12. Well done all around. (3-5, 32 yards)

6:21, 2nd & 3: 21 personnel, offset I. Lazard goes in motion from right to left. Not sure if anything else is open and I haven't seen an All-22 view of this play yet so probably fair to assume everything else is farily covered up but Zach hits his checkdown in Breece in the flat for a gain of 2. I like the decision, it's 2nd & 3, no need to force anything. Get the ball in Breece's hands and see if he can make a guy miss and get the first. Unfortunately, he doesn't but it sets up a 3rd & 1. (4-6, 34 yards)

5:16, 3rd & 6: After a false start by Becton, we're at 3rd & 6 instead of 3rd & 1. Jets come out in 11 personnel, 4 wide 2x2 formation with GW stacked behind Cobb on the right side of the formation. AVT gets beat fairly quickly and it doesn't look like anything else was open so Zach flicks the ball to MC in the flat. Not the best throw, great play by MC to reel it in, but he's not able to do much with it. Loss of 1. (5-7, 33 yards)

4:12, 1st & 10: After the safety, Jets get the ball on their own 33 yard line. They come out in 21 personnel, with GW and Gipson stacked up to the right side of the formation. Gipson goes in motion, right to left. PA boot back to the right, Zach pulls the ball down early and gains 5 yards but Bawden gets called for holding. (5-7, 33 yards)

3:49, 1st & 20: 12 personnel, Zach doesn't see anything early and tries to roll out to the right of the pocket, seems almost ready to take off but 42 is able to get to him before he takes off. Sacked for a 1 yard loss. (5-7, 33 yards)

3:05, 2nd & 21: 11 personnel. Lazard seems to run a curl/sit down route from the right side of the formation. Not a perfect throw but that's a ball that Lazard has to catch. Tough break as the pass falls incomplete. (5-8, 33 yards)

3:01, 3rd & 21: 11 personnel, trips to the left of the formation. Seems like it's a screen for MC but Zach holds on to the ball and takes a sack. Not sure why Zach doesn't throw the ball here, I don't think MC gets the yardage needed for a first but the play is there. Zach needs to throw it but instead he takes a sack and loses the ball. Luckily, he's able to get back on it before anyone else. (5-8, 33 yards)

 

2nd Quarter:
10:53, 1st & 10: 21 personnel, I formation, GW and Lazard stacked to the left. Lazard goes in motion from left to right. Hate this play call. Seems to effectively be a max protect where the only person that immediately releases on a route is GW and maybe Bawden? Denver only brings 4 so some receivers start to leak out but Zach sees a running lane and takes off for 9 yards. Good play and decision by Zach IMO. (5-8, 33 yards, 1 rush, 9 yards)

6:50, 3rd & Goal: 11 personnel, trips to the left. GW runs a corner route from the left side of the formation to the pylon. Not a good throw by Zach. I think Zach should've tried to lead GW more to the pylon but maybe he was thinking Surtain is also thinking that so he tries to throw a high-point ball to GW along the back of the EZ but it's not a good throw as it's way too high for GW to make a play. Good decision, not a good throw. Incomplete. (5-9, 33 yards, 1 rush, 9 yards)

1:48, 1st & 10: 11 personnel, 2x2. Conklin runs a curl coming from the right side of the formation, Zach gets rid of this ball as he hits back foot of his drop. Good throw and on time. Well done. Gain of 7. (6-10, 40 yards, 1 rush, 9 yards)

1:29, 2nd & 3: 11 personnel and 2x2 again. Great sail concept by Hackett and great route by GW. GW puts stress on Surtain inside then breaks outside and Zach hits him with a great ball for a gain of 12. (7-11, 52 yards, 1 rush, 9 yards)

1:23, 1st & 10: 11 personnel, 2x2 again. Not gonna beat Zach up too much here. GW runs a great fade route and maybe has a step on Surtain but this a tight-window throw. Zach correctly indetifies GW is open and he could've led GW more up field and not towards the sideline but this is a tough throw. I want Zach to be able to hit this throw but he's just not there yet. Incomplete. (7-12, 52 yards, 1 rush, 9 yards)

1:18, 2nd & 10: 11 personnel, empty set. Love this play by Zach. Last year, Zach scrambles back out of this pocket. He feels the rush coming from the left side of the formation and slides to the right of the pocket. That buys him just enough time for Lazard to come open on his curl route on the right side of the formation and he fires a dart to him for a gain of 10 and a first down. Excellent. All-22 look at the play here. (8-13, 62 yards, 1 rush, 9 yards)

0:51, 1st & 10: I think 11 personnel? Not sure who's down at the bottom of the screen but someone is down there, most likely GW. 2x2 look. Zach doesn't see anything open and hits MC who came out of the backfield for a gain of 6. Well done. (9-14, 68 yards, 1 rush, 9 yards)

0:46, 2nd & 4: 1 personnel, empty set, quads out to the right. I like the playcall here, even if I don't love the fact that it was designed to Uzomah. A little chip, TE screen play to the left side. Executed well by Uzomah who pushes his guy up field and then catches the pass and gains 7. (10-15, 75 yards, 1 rush, 9 yards)

0:25, 1st & 10: 11 personnel, 2x2 look. Zach doesn't see anything open and takes off. Not sure how I feel about the decision here. With only 1 TO left, you either have to burn it now or try to hurry up and clock the ball. But, without seeing the All-22 on this play, I just don't know. Gain of 8 with his legs. (10-15, 75 yards, 2 rushes, 17 yards)

0:19, 2nd & 2: 11 personnel, 2x2. Lazard runs an out from the right side of the formation. Great play call, solid throw by Zach, and a great catch and toe tap by Lazard. Gain of 12. (11-16, 87 yards, 2 rushes, 17 yards)

0:15, 1st & 10: 11 personnel, 2x2. This is up there with the non-throw to Conklin as Zach's worst play of the day. Uzomah runs an out from the slot on the left side of the formation and Zach hits him for a gain of 5. Not a great throw by Zach either as Uzomah has to reach back to his inside, slowing him down, to make the catch. Maybe if he leads him more he could've made it OOB? Regardless, there's 2 places this ball can go on this play, in the EZ or next to the OOB line. This is an inexcusable mistake by Zach, one he even acknowledged during his post game presser. These are the plays Zach has to eliminate if we want to be a playoff team this year. (12-17, 92 yards, 2 rushes, 17 yards)

First Half Breakdown:
Outside of the 2 bad mistakes by Zach this half, I thought he played fine. Those mistakes took 7 points off the board though so that downgrades him to below average-bad IMO. Can't miss guys wide open in the EZ and make bone-headed decisions. Hopefully those are ones he learns from.

 

3rd Quarter:
10:06, 3rd & 4: 11 personnel, trips to the right. What a route by Conklin here. Has the LB on skates. Zach hits him across the middle for a gain of 19. Well done all around. (13-18, 111 yards, 2 rushes, 17 yards)

8:08, 3rd & 5: 11 personnel, 2x2. GW goes in motion from right to left. Excellent play design here. GW runs an out after going in motion but Lazard and his man are able to "screen" Surtain enough for GW to get open. Good throw by Zach and good YAC by GW. Gain of 10. (14-19, 121 yards, 2 rushes, 17 yards)

6:05, 3rd & Goal: 11 personnel, trips to the right. Nothing really doing here. Seems like everyone is pretty covered up unless there's someone open in the corner of the EZ at the bottom of the screen. Zach looks to scramble but runs into pressure and fumbles the ball. Luckily, AVT is able to recover it and save the FG opp. I don't want to say Zach has a fumbling problem but that's 3-4 times in the last few games now he's put the ball on the turf. He needs to tighten that up. Obviously, Becton's big foot was a big factor for this one but just something to be mindful off going forward. (14-19, 121 yards, 2 rushes, 17 yards)

3:11, 1st & 10: 21 personnel, offset I. GW comes in motion left to right. PA pass, Zach hits Breece on a sit down over the middle. Solid. Gain of 3. (15-20, 124 yards, 2 rushes, 17 yards)

4th Quarter:
13:53, 1st & 20: 11 personnel, trips to the left. Good pocket navigation here by Zach. Finds his way to a decent throwing lane to Conklin but the DT gets his hands up and deflects the ball. I am encouraged that he kept his eyes downfield though even with the muddy pocket. (15-21, 124 yards, 2 rushes, 17 yards)

13:07, 3rd & 7: 11 personnel, trips to the left. Broncos bring the heat and get some pressure on Zach. Not a bad decision here by Zach. Conklin is open and he gives his guy a chance to make 1 man miss and get a first or a TD. Conklin catches the ball and gains 4. (16-22, 128 yards, 2 rushes, 17 yards)

10:25, 1st & 10: 12 personnel, singleback. GW goes in motion left to right. PA pass and this was one of Zach's best throws of the game. GW runs a crosser from the right side back to the left and Zach throws an absolute dime to GW. Just past the outstretched arms of GW's defender. Beautiful play all round. Need to see more of these play calls and throws from Zach. Gain of 32. (17-23, 160 yards, 2 rushes, 17 yards)

8:22, 3rd & 10: 11 personnel, 2x2. Zach identifies man coverage early on, sees a running lane, and takes off. Wish he could've gotten another yard or two but oh well. Gain of 9. (17-23, 160 yards, 3 rushes, 26 yards)

4:44, 1st & 10: 13 personnel, singleback. Lazard goes in motion from right to left. Then Conklin goes in motion from left to right. This is another push screen by a TE, this time it's for Ruckert and the Broncos are ready for it. Good throw from Zach but Ruckert isn't able to do much with it. Gain of 2. (18-24, 162 yards, 3 rushes, 26 yards)

3:56, 3rd & 4: 11 personnel, empty set, 2x3. These are the types of plays that give you hope for Zach. He clearly comes off of his primary read (GW) quickly when he sees there's nothing there and moves onto his next one (Conklin). Conklin runs an excellent stick-nod route from the right side of the formation. Zach gets to Conklin just as he clears the underneath zone defender and throws an excellent ball to him. Conklin rumbles down the field with some help from Lazard, Cobb, McGovern, and Mitchell. Need to see more of this and that dart to GW from Zach and hopefully we will! Gain of 37. (19-25, 199 yards, 3 rushes, 26 yards)

2:21, 3rd & 5: 11 personnel, trips bunch to the right. GW runs a fade from the top of the bunch formation. It's a pick so I'm not gonna say this was an excellent play by Zach. However, these are the types of picks I can live with. GW is 1 on 1 with Surtain. Zach needs to throw this more towards GWs back shoulder but it's still a catchable ball. It's a ball that shouldn't have been intercepted. Seems like it went through GW's hands, then through Surtain's hands, but he's able to squeeze the ball between his legs for a pick. Hell of a play by PS2 and is a good look as to why he's one of the best CBs in the league. Tough break. (19-25, 199 yards, 1 INT, 3 rushes, 26 yards)

Half by Half Stat Breakdown:

1st Half:
12-17, 92 yards, 2 rushes, 17 yards

2nd Half:
7-8, 107 yards, 1 INT, 1 rush, 9 yards

Total:
19-25, 199 yards, 1 INT, 3 rushes, 26 yards (ESPN has him at 19-26 so again, I've missed an incompletion somewhere)

 

TLDR; As I said at the top, I thought Zach was fine overall in this game when I watched it in real time. However, after watching all of his throws a few times, I do think Zach stepped up in the 2nd half and made some key throws that put us in scoring position and in a position to win the game. I also didn't realize he went 7-8 in the 2nd half, very nice! A couple of bad mistakes in the first half kept this from being a good game IMO and of course and interception never looks good. Overall, I'm pleased with Zach's progression that he's shown over the last few weeks. The fact that he's been at or above 72% for comp % is a great step for him. He's got a massive test coming up on Sunday against the Eagles. Let's hope this progression hasn't all been smoke and mirrors because we're gonna need him at his A game if we want to pull this one out!

 

Just saw this on Twitter.

Still stand by it's not a bad decision by Zach but if he pump fakes to Conklin and then throws an anticipatory ball to Lazard towards the pylon, that's maybe another TD. Again, he's getting pressured so I understand why he checks it down and it's probably the right read there. Great play by Lazard's man though, he breaks on the ball even though Conklin isn't his man.

 

All-22 look at this play. Not a great play design by Hackett IMO.

 

All-22 look of this play here. This is part of the reason Zach has a 70+% comp % over the last few games. I feel like at times he's a little too quick to go to his check down. It's a clean pocket, Zach needs to let this play develop for just a tick longer and hit GW on this crosser. He's open, GW needs the ball.

 

All-22 look here. Nothing else to add...*chef's kiss*

 

I said that I thought his first half was "below average-bad". So I agree with you!

 

For sure, based off of what Zach sees there post snap, Conklin should be wide open for either a first or potentially a TD. Lazard's man just makes a great play and stops it.

 

I think his pocket presence and decision making have both greatly improved this year. I also think he's improved on his ball placement/accuracy slightly.

For the last couple of years, we saw it all too often where as soon as Zach felt/sensed pressure, he bailed out of the pocket, and typically he would try to scramble backwards which often let to awful results. He's still not perfect but I don't see that much anymore. I see a QB who is making some slight adjustments within the pocket to buy himself and his receivers some more time.

The decision making should be pretty self-explanatory. He's had 2 bad picks so far this year IMO, the INT against Buffalo (directly to Milano) and the first one of the 3 he threw against Dallas (scrambling out to the right and tries to force one deep to GW and MC's guy picks it). But the other 3 are somewhat justifiable based on his though process and/or the game situation, (the deep shot against Dallas, the miscommunication with MC against Dallas, and PS2's pick last week).

In terms of his accuracy/ball placement, he's still not good here but he's much better than he has been which is reflected in his 61.1% comp% this year. That's about 5-6% higher than his career average over his first 2 seasons, which is a good step in his progression. I don't see as many wildly inaccurate balls and the "yips" balls where he throws it into the dirt while trying to hit his receiver in the flat or short are almost completely gone.

Where he can realistically improve IMO is to do a better job of reading a defense pre-snap and working through his progressions quicker. We've seen some examples of this over the past few weeks, the missed play to Lazard against KC and the missed TD opportunity last week to Conklin. My hope is that Hackett and Downing have been helping him with this over the last few weeks and it's great to have some tape to point to. The stick-nod pass to Conklin against Denver shows that Zach CAN make full-field progressions, the issue in this regard is what has been the main issue with Zach during his career so far. Consistency. He needs to understand when to come off of a receiver and do so faster.

Finally, with the exception of a few plays here and there, I think Hackett has done a decent job with his gameplans and play calls over the last 2 weeks. I would like to see him incorporate more RPOs, especially against a defense like the Eagles who is very similar to ours in that they have an excellent DL that can generate pressure with 4. More plays like the "bubble screen" to Breece against Denver. Just get our playmakers out in space and let them do their thing. I do hate the empty sets though, so if those completely went away, I would be a big fan of it. Especially with AVT being out, Mitchell will most likely need some help with Reddick/Sweat/etc. so it would be wise to either have the TE or RB on that side for most of the game.

EDIT: One thing I would like to add to the last point (Hackett's game plan and playcalling), I would love to see them let Zach throw the ball more often on 1st down. This tweet from Nania does a good job of showing why. It was against a bad defense but I think he played similarly well on 1st against KC too.

"Zach Wilson was excellent on first down yet again

8/10 for 78 yards
2 scrambles for 17 yards
1 sack (-2 yards)

Overall: 93 yards on 13 dropbacks (7.2 yards per play)

Need to let him have more than 13 first down dropbacks in a game. Can get some big plays to avoid the red zone"