The problem with QBR is the same problem with all statistical measurements: they try to capture a realistic picture of performance, but without objective interpretation that "picture" can be interpreted to mean a lot of different things depending on your bias. Standing on their own, stats can be very misleading. It's why Mark Twain's comment about them is still so true today: "There a three kinds of lies: lies, damnable lies, and statistics". Just look at the posts on this forum that often use stats to "prove" their truth, and yet, others who see something different can offer up their own stats or interpretations. It's why police will say that eyewitness accounts are often the least reliable. It would be refreshing if, instead of trying to "prove" the other side wrong, if we could try to see the other POV and engage in openminded give and take. Yeah, I know. I'm in the wrong forum. I need to be in the "Wishes and Fairy Tales Forum". Oh well. Carry on with the dead horse beatings.
Of course eye test, watching games, particularly from all 22, etc, are the best. Which is why I don't scoff at PFF ratings: that's these guys do. QBR formula though IMO is too complex to be meaningful. Passing one is relatively simple aggregate of conventional QB passing stats, which is why I think can be taken as a basis to start analysis, though of course with a grain of salt. The passing formula, unlike QBR, is also fully published and survived numerous peer reviews: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passer_rating
Yeah QB involves so much that it’s hard to find just a few stats that are all encompassing. For me, I watch the games. For stats, I look at completion rate, yards per attempt, yards per game, and TD to Pick ratio. Those will give a pretty good overall view, especially over a larger sample size. yes there are other factors but in the end, facts are facts. So for Zach, for example. I hate the narrative that he “improved” after his injury his rookie year. It’s bullshit. His key stats all stayed almost exactly the same. The only one that improved was that he cut down on picks. Ok…good…that is important. But he also continued to throw for low 50% completion and 170 yards per game. That is bottom of the barrel performance for a QB in todays game. so yeah, eye test matters, but over enough games the stats will tend to reflect a players performance pretty well. You can only make excuses for so long… my two cents!
I "Liked" your post because it's a reasonable take. But the part where I have a problem is where you go on to declare definitively what WILL happen with Zach, when none of us really knows. Sure. based on past examples we can say there's a good chance he won't work out, but there are actually reasons based upon stats, and the "eye test" and his historical body of work, that argue that maybe it could turn out differently IF the Jets ever got their shit together and figured out how to develop a young QB, including ensuring that the offense they want him to run jibes with his strengths. Now the odds are that the Jets will once again fail to do that, and yet another promising young QB gets tossed on the trash heap, but until it actually happens we can't say that it will, regardless of how many stats you use - you simply cannot predict the future by relying on the past. You can assess probability and make plans based on that, but that isn't the same thing as what many posters here have done and continue to do regarding Wilson. And what's even more maddening is that many of these same posters want JD to draft yet another QB when they've never proven they can identify a "can't miss" QB prospect and/or develop one they might actually have correctly identified. Frankly, I don't know if Zach can be fixed. I agree that based upon historical precedent the odds are against that happening. But as long as he's on the team, the only conclusion I can draw is that JD and Saleh believe he can, and they've seen a LOT more of him than any of us, have not only the stats, but the film, and their own "eye tests" based upon a LOT more experience than any of us have. If, at some point, they come out and trade him away, and make it clear they were only ever "supporting" him so as to not further damage his value, I'm okay with that, that's what teams do all the time. But if they DO keep him, I'm going to stick with my own "eye" test and believe that he can be a damn good QB with the right system and support. In the meantime, the Jets need to get a good QB in place. I still think Rodgers is the best choice, assuming he wants to, and specifically wants to play with the Jets. If he's iffy about that, then he's not the best choice. Carr then would be my next best choice, but I'd still have concerns about him being too sensitive to play for the Jets and dealing with the fans and media in NY. It would be like nothing he's ever experienced before, and he might well fold under it all. Third choice would be seeing if they can get Tannehill reasonably. Fourth choice is Jimmy G. If it gets past that, I probably won't give a shit. My 10 cent response.
My choice is 1. Carr- go out and put your all into obtaining the best quarterback that is available right now 2. Rodgers- I don’t have him as #1 because of his age. At this point he’s a coin flip every year on whether or not he’s going to play. And also let’s not overlook how fast it all falls apart for old quarterbacks. Remember Favre’s last 2 seasons? 3. Jimmy- yuck. PLEASE don’t let it get to this point! 4. Tannehill- I mean he’s better than nothing, but by how much?
I really can't disagree with your preferences here. While I do think Rodgers would be the best under the conditions I noted, I can't say Carr would necessarily be terrible. After that, things get shaky.
First you say he had no accolades, now you're listing those that you would rather ignore while actually ignoring some others - at least be honest, past awards don't matter to the Jets. What matters is how either guy may perform in the future. You have made your choice clear. I have as well.
I'm assigning the same value that was paid for Rosen and Sam Darnold, which isn't that far off base for young QBs with potential. Zach only has 22 total games under his belt and JD knows trade value. Darnold didn't improve in year 3 and still got a 2nd and 5th. People thinking Zach only gets a 6th rounder are off their rockers. It's such a bad take, JD would never move him for that. Hindsight is a pointless argument because Zach's career ain't over yet. If Zach turns it around and is playing quality football in a year or 2, it changes everything. We don't know the future.
Assign any value you want, just understand that every guy here can assign their own value, none of which will be relevant to any value determined in a deal and that's the only one that may matter. But considering Zach Wilson to be equal to Sam Darnold would be real tough to prove. Precisely what has Wilson accomplished to create a value equal or better than what Darnold saw? I also don't know why you're addressing comments to me about what it would take to move Wilson - that's not anything I proposed. That does not mean that if Wilson turns things around it won't be some kind of miracle.
The fact he hasn't signed here, pretty much tells you, what he thinks about the organization, this will be another wasted effort by the FO
https://nypost.com/2023/02/20/derek-carr-hit-it-off-with-robert-saleh-during-jets-meeting/ David Carr was able to shed a little light on his brother Derek having a “great trip” while meeting with the Jets over the weekend. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35705490/derek-carr-free-agency-long-process-qb-brother-says Derek Carr's free agency is going to be a "long process," according to the veteran quarterback's brother, who says the four-time Pro Bowler will "do his due diligence" in choosing a new team. "He went there to get a feel for how they work, from the top down," David said. "Everyone he met -- and we knew he would love Robert Saleh; I've known Robert for a while ... he's fantastic -- they hit it off, and they would love to work together.
Love it…I respect your opinion and we’ve always had great discussions…more often than not I agree with your positions…on Zach yeah I am not as optimistic as you are. however, in my post I actually didn’t say anything about Zach’s future…I really only talked about my frustration with the talk track that I’ve seen many times on this board about how he “improved” in the back half of his first year, and I call bullshit on that and the stats back that up. however, you’re right in that I don’t think he will become a franchise QB and I think there’s a small chance of him becoming even an average QB anytime soon. He’s been THAT bad. And history shows us that QBs in the past who have been THAT bad over 20+ games hardly ever turn it around and become great. Sure, that doesn’t mean he CAN’T become better…doesn’t mean he WON’T … but I just don’t believe it. Clearly the Jets don’t either because while they’re saying all the right things about not giving upon him the reality is they want no part of him starting next year and they really don’t have a realistic option to cutting him with his guaranteed contract. But I fully believe (and this is just my opinion) that if they had a path to cut ties…say, including him in a trade package for example….I think they would jump at the chance and not look back. Again, that’s just my opinion.
Over a 9 year period, Carr and Tannehill have the same stats, a couple of passing TDs and Interceptions and 2 thousand yards separate them because Tannehill has one more year in NFL.
Frankly I'd say your forecast for Zach's future as a Jet is probably more likely than mine. I agree that the odds are against him turning out the way he was expected to are long, but where I differ from you and others who have decided Zach is a bust, is that because of all the other mitigating factors in his development which I've spoken about ad nauseum and won't repeat again here, there is a small possibility that he could surprise everyone because of his physical ability and his reportedly strong work ethic. It may be more a matter of immaturity on his part, and setting up a situation where he can sit and learn for a year or two might enable him to mature to the point where that catches up with his physical talent. But I also agree that just because the Jets have said good things about him doesn't mean they intend to keep him, and if Douglas got a good offer for him that he wouldn't trade him. I've said that in previous posts on this subject. I don't see anything to indicate that he's as bad as all the other bust QBs he's being equated to, but I could be wrong. I still trust Douglas's judgment way more than my own or any other fan's. If JD decides Zach is a lost cause and dumps him I have no problem with that, other than it adding to the pile of broken QB's they Jets have made over the decades. But at this point, based on my limited access to seeing him play, practice, and go about the business of learning how to be a pro QB, I still think Zach has potential, although realizing it may not happen with the Jets, and that's what pisses me off the most. There are two things that a modern football offense require: an above average to great QB, and a similar quality OL, and this has been known by successful teams for years (decades), and yet somehow the Jets keep screwing that up. I've given up trying to figure out why, I just know that it needs to be fixed NOW, no excuses. If it isn't they can just go ahead and move the team to London and replace it with a team and owner that can grasp this basic element of developing a winning franchise.
I think a huge obstacle for any he highly paid QB we sign is the high amount of taxes and the cost of living in the NY metropolitan area. More and more businesses are leaving the area because of this and I tryly think it is a huge negative when it comes to playing here. So between the blue city taxes and the "Jet Tax" the Jets really have to overpay by a lot to be competitive.
But Tannehill brings with him the 5th highest cap number among NFL QBs. He should not even be entertained unless the Titans release him. That could happen and then you can debate how he compares to Carr but he's also 3 years older
