Since the Jets got eliminated 2 weeks ago against Seattle, I've started to transition into offseason mode (a feeling we're all too familiar with, amirite??). At first, I was all aboard the Derek Carr train (signing Carr, not trading any assets for him to be clear), and I still think signing Carr would be a good move for this team. However, over the last few days, I've felt myself slowly starting to migrate towards drafting a QB and signing a hold-the-fort kinda guy in FA (Jimmy G, Brissett, or even re-signing Mike White) to a short-term deal (2-3 years). My reasoning is this, Carr would give us the best QB we've had potentially since Namath, but is he enough to get us above the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and Trevor Lawrence? I'm not sure. As good as Carr is, to compete in the AFC for the next decade, we need to get a guy that can go toe-to-toe with the elite QB's in our division and conference. With that being said, here is my case for Will Levis. (I might do one of these for Anthony Richardson too if that's something you all would like to see!) The Positives: Standing at 6'3" 230+lbs, Will Levis has the prototypical size that you're looking for in an NFL QB. He has the best arm talent in this year's QB class and while he may not have that elite, elite Josh Allen/Patrick Mahomes arm strength, it's probably just a slight notch below that. He has great-elite touch and ball placement, especially on throws towards the sidelines where that's a necessity. Very quick/concise throwing motion, which allows him to throw the ball even when under immediate pressure/throwing off platform. He can still be effective under pressure. UK's OL this year was atrocious (Levis was sacked 34 times this year, tied for 6th most among Power 5 QBs) and yet Levis still had the 3rd best completion % under pressure (52.4%), was tied for the 3rd fewest TO-worthy plays (4), and had the best adjusted completion % (72.4%) among all qualifying Power 5 QBs. Has shown that he's willing to step up into muddy pockets and throw the ball knowing he's going to take a hit. Has experience running a pro-style offense. Liam Coen was UK's OC in 2021 (left after last season to be the Rams OC and rumors are he's returning to UK soon) and ran a pro-style offense with a lot of NFL route concepts. Rich Scangarello (UK's 2022 OC) ran a similar system, just not as effectively at Coen. He's a plus athlete. No one is going to mistake Levis for Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields but with a 4.7 40 time, Levis is absolutely a threat to take off with his legs and when you combine that with his size, he's incredibly dangerous in the RZ and forces the defense to play 11-on-11. Has shown the ability to work through his progressions and make the correct read/throw. Has shown the ability to throw balls with anticipation into tight coverages/throw the receiver open. Level of competition. No one will be able to make the cupcake/COVID year excuses for Levis like we have with ZW. Levis has played in the toughest conference in college football for the last 2 years and produced. The dude is a gamer and a true leader. Go throw on a highlight tape of Levis and you'll see him making Josh Allen-esque plays (granted at the college level so it's not as impressive), hurdling over defenders, leading GW drives (namely the 2021 Citrus Bowl against Iowa who had a top 10 D), and doing everything he can to make sure his team gets the W. He was elected a team captain prior to last season despite being a transfer from Penn State and if you just watch the games, you can see how the team rallied around Levis after any big play. It's something UK hasn't had since Andre Woodson. The Negatives: The negatives have to start with his regression from 2021 to 2022. As a Kentucky fan, I can give you guys all the excuses in the world. Went from Coen to Scangarello (gigantic downgrade), played behind arguably the worst OL in the SEC this year, lost all of his top targets from 2021 and replaced them with 2 freshmen and a transfer from VaTech, and he had multiple injuries this year (left shoulder and left ankle) that impacted his game. But again, we've heard all of these excuses ad nausem for lots of QBs and the fact remains that Levis did not play nearly as well in 2022 as he did in 2021. Has shown that he can be careless with the football. Since becoming the starting QB at UK in 2021, Levis has 32 turnovers (13 INTs and 5 fumbles in 2021 10 INTs and 4 fumbles in 2022). I do think he's shown some progress in this aspect of his game this year which is evident in the tape and just the raw stats but I'd be lying if I said I didn't think this would be somewhat of a concern. While he's shown the ability to work through progressions, he also has a tendency to lock onto 1 WR and put too much faith in his arm talent. There are numerous examples on tape of Levis locking onto his 1st or 2nd read on a play and just trying to will or aim the ball to the receiver. This is a recipe for disaster in the NFL. His field vision/understanding of coverage concepts is very inconsistent. I struggle with how much of this is it's own stand-alone negative or if it ties into the negative I listed above but there are times where he either doesn't identify DBs rotating into certain coverages or is too trusting in his arm talent which results in bad throws or turnovers. While Levis has shown the ability to make anticipatory throws on occasion, oftentimes he's still a "see it and then throw it" type of QB. Showed he can be skittish in the pocket and look to bail too soon this year. I didn't see this as often in his 2021 tape so I want to believe it's a byproduct of the atrocious OL he played behind this year but we've seen this first-hand with ZW over the last 2 years so it has to be a negative for now. Will be 24 years old when he's drafted. This might not be as big of a knock as it used to be with QBs playing well into their 40's now but it has to be noted that he's a bit of an older prospect. All in all, I do think Will Levis is a 1st round-worthy QB prospect. He's got elite size and all the tools you look for in a modern-day NFL QB. I also think his issues can be corrected, especially when it comes to his ability to work through his progressions and make anticipatory throws because he's done these things on tape they're just a little too inconsistent for now. I also think his skittish-ness has more to do with the OL he played behind this year and less to do with him or his playstyle. The turnovers are probably the most concerning thing for him IMO but even that can be worked on to an extent. It's very likely Levis goes in the Top 10 due to some of the things I mentioned in the positives section but if he does slip to 13, I think he could be a worthwhile investment for a team that is truly a QB away from being a legit contender for the next decade. He may need some time to sit and learn the game at the NFL level but I also think he could step in fairly quickly and be productive due to his experience in a pro-style offense.
I have argued forever that you don’t put a young a behind a bad line. Get a veteran QB. Zach is untradable and costs you money to cut so bench him and try to fix/salvage him. Fixing the online is the priority. AVT is your only “sure thing” . Tomlinson probably has to be back. McGov is a free agent, Brown may retire, Fant gone(no way he returns after getting jerked all over). Mitchell?? Herbig/Tardiff fa but might be worth depth. Becton is back but can’t honestly depend on him. Squint hard and you might see a line but serious reinforcements needed. At least one starting caliber tackle needed, maybe a center and maybe a guard . If we get some extra picks, I could see a developmental qb depending on how good the veteran qb is. Hendon Hooker tore his acl in late November so probably won’t be ready to start the year (don’t want rookie playing anyway) and is a sixth year senior and 25yo. Saw some late third round projections. If he was there at our fourth?? Or if you have somehow gotten some extra picks ? Someone raw later, maybe but really need line fixed first. Also a problem if the staff is under win now or else situation, it is hard to work for future.
If they can get the WR from Ohio State I don't care about the QB. That kid is dynamite. Way better than Garret Wilson.
I really do focus on your pre-draft posts, KY. I’m an avid college fan, particularly SEC, but I confess that I don’t watch with an eye on draft value. So, I put great stock into your posts. All that said, I’ve never understood how guys like Kiper and McShay have been carrying Levis at the top of their boards. I can’t quibble with anything you’ve posted. I don’t question his arm and mechanics, and I get the limitations of his support staff. But I keep coming back to one thing: I’ve never seen Will Levis take over and control a game like I’d want see in a franchise QB. That might be me and how I watch games. Looking around the SEC, though, where shoot-em-up offense is now the trend, I’d like to see Will Levis with gaudier stats in a few conference games. Fully willing to take a closer look. Reading your draft posts for years, as I said, I appreciate your thoughts. I’ll watch some more Levis tape. .
Smith-Njigba is a stud, no arguments there. I'm not sure if JD and co. would go after another 1st round WR but it's certainly possible. WR feels more like a Day 2-3 target IMO.
College QB's that regress for any non-injury related reason are likely bad bets at the NFL level. If they regress for an injury-related reason you need to take a hard look at the circumstances of the injury because injury luck unlike most types tends to carry forward to the NFL.
The Jets should snipe a mid-rounds QB to develop as a backup. Whatever they do for a starter they're going to need a backup and neither of the two guys they have is suited for that role. ZW won't keep things together which is the role of a backup and White is injury-prone.
Thank you for the kind words, I appreciate it! Levis has had a few dominant performances but just not a lot. Not a lot against SEC or quality opponents anyway so I think your argument is a fair one. IMO Levis' best performances were against LSU (2021), Tennessee (2021), and Louisville (2021). Those games showcased how effective he can be with his arm and his legs so if you want to see "the best" of Levis, I'd check those tapes.
I agree, which is the main reason I posted his regression as the first negative on the list. I do think his foot/ankle injury severely limited his mobility down the stretch because even as of a month ago he was saying that his ankle is only about 85%. As I mentioned above, I can't stress how awful our OL was this season and I can't stress how much of a downgrade going from Coen to Scangarello was. It's not often you see a QB go from rushing for almost 400 yards and 9 TDs in a year to -102 yards and 2 TDs the next year.
107 rushing attempts is a lot of rushing attempts for a QB. So the lower body injury probably followed from the play style. Can he play as a pocket passer or is he dependent on getting outside the pocket to make plays happen? If he was going in the 4th round he might be a good bet assuming he didn't have to be on the move to be effective.
The weird thing is most of the top QBs in the NFL right now weren't the first QB drafted in their class. Mahomes, Hurts, Allen, Herbert, Lamar, Rodgers, Tua. Really the only 1.1 or 1st QB off the board picks that are at the top of the league are Burrow and Lawrence. Maybe it would make sense for us to stay put and take the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th QB?
He can play in the pocket. He was much more effective last year when Coen was dialing up rollouts and boot actions to play to his strengths but he can absolutely stand strong in the pocket if need be. My main concern around him in this perspective though is, did playing behind this OL damage his internal clock? I saw him bail the pocket early a lot of times in 2022, something that wasn't so prevalent in 2021. I want to say it's due to the OL he was behind but that's definitely something to be mindful of. We've already drafted one skittish QB in the 1st round, we don't need another.
Great write up how is he between the ears? Biggest adjustment to NFL in my opinion is everything is faster. QBs have to make quicker decisions and get rid of the ball quickly. One huge reason why Zach has sucked and mike white did better. Also why Brady flourished and Bledsoe was meh ( million dollar arm ten cent brain)
Good write up. I don’t think he’s worth a first round pick though. I’ll throw I’ve seen below. I think Levis has a pretty high floor in that I don’t think he’d ever be an abomination. He’s played enough football where he was allowed to manipulate the LOS and change things he recognized for himself, while also playing with an extremely untalented roster around him. Most situations would be a step up, even at the worst NFL franchises. He holds on to the ball way too long and it reminds me a bit of Ben Roethlisberger. He’s not as big, but he can shed arm tacklers in the pocket. He has straight line speed and can pickup yards when there’s an obvious gap and he recognizes it. His short area foot speed is pretty poor though. Once he gets going he’s a big fast aggressive runner, but I think it takes him a bit too long to kick into gear to really fall back on that ability. I would agree that he might have the strongest arm in the class. I wouldn’t say he has the best arm talent though. I’ve been down on CJ Stroud as a whole but he really impressed me against Georgia with his ball placement. I think he’s a significantly better sideline thrower than Levis. I’d think he’s a second round, sit and learn with no chance of playing (which doesn’t happen) kind of guy but I’d definitely have confidence that he can at least effectively run a NFL offense.
None of the QB's this year look like a top 10 pick. Stroud you could argue from 16 onwards. Young is top of the 2nd round at best. The NFL really needs a Come to Jesus moment where they recognize that the accepted wisdom on QB's as of 1998 or so was the right one. You clearly recognize a #1 overall when they are there and you'd better have a great plan for everybody else because you're going to need it. The Jets have the same plan for every QB they draft and based on the evidence it is a very bad plan.
