Wait a minute, are you telling me that because his confidence is low he become dysfunctional? Is it becaue he doesn't trust the system? PCing? Teammates? Is it coaching? The common denominator here is ZW who is, and your statements above support this, inconsistent from down to down, Qrt to Qrt and week ro week. So what is the answer? Benzodiazepines? Psychiatrist? Zen master? If he can not handle the pressure and that to me is what your post and the good/bad stats say, then maybe he is not cut out for the role? just an observation.
I’ve been saying this for a while…so many people talk like it was some revelation or massive change, yet the numbers after his injury look very similar and in line with the numbers before in terms of yards per game, completion rate etc. the ONLY thing that changed was fewer picks, which is great, but it was the result of a very conservative plan. the hard numbers show a very similar result before and after, and further, the number this year so far are also in line. he’s not been good outside of a few flashes here and there. But not even one complete game where you go “YES now THATS the guy we need”. Not one. Pitt 4th quarter, sure. A throw or two here and there, sure. That’s all we’ve seen. people WANT to believe because we NEED him to be great, but you can’t look at him thus far and say he’s the guy. we can make all the excuses we want, even to the point of someone wanting to pull out his throw always and recompute completion rate for gods sake…but it is what it is. I hope he can develop, but every game that goes by and we continue to see the same shit with off target throws and missing wide open guys or not seeing wide open guys or whatever the fuck is going on with him…I lose that much more faith. he doesn’t need to be top ten or top five. Not this year. But holy fucking shit he can’t be the LOWEST rated QB in the fucking league again. That is unacceptable.
uhm…we’re interpreting 55% completion rate… that’s pretty shitty in todays NFL and it’s bottom of the league territory. We’re interpreting less than 200 yards per game…also pretty low on the totem pole. at some point the sample size will be large enough, right? Is it already? Will it be after 4 more games? By end of year? End of next year? Everyone will have their opinion of course but regardless I don’t think you can spin it that’s it’s been good…
so first off…I agree 100% on good discussion, support, and good debate. I like to say attack the post not the poster. So a serious question…not trying to be an ass here … what numbers are being cherry picked? I think the cherry picking of numbers is coming from people who are supporting Zach and making excuses for him….for example, we had people trying to adjust for too many drops because they felt we had SO many more drops than other teams (without considering that a good amount of those drops are maybe related to his off target throws)…a few pages back we had someone wanting to take out his throw always and recompute completion rate because he had SO many more throwaways than other QBs (of course there were other QBs with similar or more throwaways who had much better completion rates anyway)…we get a lot of excuses about OL, drops, top defenses we’ve played, etc. all valid reasons, sure, but guess what, we’ll have to play tough defenses, we’ll have to deal with drops, etc. I think a lot of us are looking at the straight stat lines and saying hey, these numbers are bottom of the league territory, so there is a legitimate concern that he’s not playing well. Yes we won which is great but I think most anyone can understand that we won with defense and Breece Hall making big plays…he was along for the ride, much like Sanchez was a decade ago. People have pointed out that his numbers so far are very much in line, and in fact are a bit worse, than those of Darnold, Sanchez and Geno. That is the territory he’s playing in. are there reasons? Sure. Last year his receivers sucked. His OL sucked and was better this year but injuries have regressed it lately. I get it. my issue is that numbers are what they are. All QBs deal with shit. Drops, pressure, good defenses, whatever. he shouldn’t be THIS bad though. And even outside of the stats, we are still seeing the same bad shit we’ve been seeing all along. he STILL misses way too many open receivers He STILL doesn’t see open guys and throws into coverage when he had easier completions available. He STILL rifles in dumpoff throws that makes them harder to catch He STILL has horrible footwork. He STILL bails from the pocket too early and he STILL runs 15 yards backward like he’s still at BYU playing Bumfuck U where he can get away with that He STILL throws the ball up for grabs I see an athletic kid with a strong arm who can make incredible throws into tight windows once in a while, but who does not yet know how to play QB the question is…can he learn? I was t too high on him coming into the year, and I e seen more bad than good so far…I don’t like that we are not seeing meaningful progress… doesnt mean he can’t improve…he’s still young…and it doesn’t mean cut him…but man we need to see better play.
I'm all for signing Minshew and have him hold the fort for a few years if Zach's play doesn't improve over the last 9 games.
Since you asked here are my thoughts. Saleh has been talking about the issue for a year. He said early last year Zach needs to learn to relax, just play, trust his reads and not over think. Saleh said at some point it will just click for him and he can relax and play. I have been quite skeptical that will happen and he can suddenly relax and play well on a consistent basis. But, as you aware as he has pressed and his confidence has receded things have gotten worse and worse. My general belief is that QBs with mental issues like this never get better and the odds are certainly against him. He did rebound the last 7 games and the 1st two this year, fixed a lot of his mechanical issues (most notably his back leg on his drops) and showed a lot of improvement in many areas from ball fakes which were horrible, moving safeties with his eyes, understanding of scheme and defenses. But these last 3 games the wheels have fallen off and he has progressively gotten worse. It is reasonable to say the odds of him overcoming confidence issues are pretty low. In regards to why or the cause. Robbie Sabo has speculated about this issue a little bit. His basic argument is he presses when he tries to do too much, after a bad play, after he hesitates and does not throw when he knows he should and other negative events. Sabo has said trying to get him in rhythm more would help him calm down but with the offense more focused on running game that will be harder to do. Which I think is the argument a few posters have made. Pavia did a really good video in the off-season breaking down his mechanics when relaxed and when not. There was a second video too by someone else which was also good as well this off-season breaking down his mechanical flaws with similar issues. In regards how to fix him? Really it's up to Zach. Only he can fix himself. Maybe through repetition things will calm down for him.
If he turns it around and goes on a Josh Allen trajectory I’m sure we’ll all be thrilled and will gladly take it
Actually there is a lot that binds them. They were both strong-armed mobile QB's in college albeit the college game being much less pass happy in the early 70's. They both came out of nowhere to be high 1st round picks after their last year in college. They both were drafted by the Jets and thrown onto the field too early in the development cycle. They both were totally over marketed by the organization leaving them in the tough position of having to deliver on over promises. They both had questionable assets around them on the field year one but saw big drafts start to level the playing field in year two. In 1977 the Jets drafted Marvin Powell, Wesley Walker, your namesake, Joe Klecko, Dan Alexander and Kevin Long. The talent on the team was catching up but the QB aside from an occasional game wasn't close to leading the team yet. It would take him 4 more years to get to the point he wasn't a big part of the problem. The Jets BTW treated him just like they've treated ZW, letting him go bombs away at the start and then dialing things back a bit when it was clear that he wasn't blowing the league away. Then they let him throw the ball again in '79 and '80 and lost a lot of games in the process as he threw 33 TD's and 52 Int's over that period. I bring Todd up because he is exactly the right comparison for ZW, both because of the way they were drafted and marketed and because of the piss-poor results they actually gave us on the field - occasional flashes not withstanding.
I was thinking that Jameis Winston (assuming he's healthy) would be a more Vinny-like signing and probably fairly cheap as journeymen starters go. There's a reason he was the #1 overall pick (just like Vinny) and a lot of reasons he didn't completely live up to that (ditto.)
Technically I am right as it was given as an interception regardless of you saying the guys foot was out of bounds, you may have a point as it was very close but at the end of the day it was given so it was an interception. As for me jumping into a conversation I replied to a post on a forum, that is how forums work.
Winston is not right for this offense they need to bring someone new in, I love the idea of a veteran, but it needs to be a QB that gets the ball out quickly to the open receivers
I think you start Wilson the rest of the year. I know we have a shot at the playoffs, but lets be real, if you don't have good QB play, you aren't winning in the playoffs. By the end of the year, either Zach proves he's the guy, or not. And if the "jury is still out" I think we all agree that you bring in an established vet and have a QB competition and Zach will probably lose. Unless we get a superstar like Lamar
Once you get in the playoffs you never know what will happen. The 2000 Ravens made a run to the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at QB. The 2015 Broncos won with an over-the-hill Peyton Manning completing 55% of his passes for less than 6 yards an attempt over 3 games. You just never know how far your defense and running game can take you until you are there.
"By far" may be a bit of a stretch considering there are a few who clock in around the 13 Att/TA mark that both have maintained good-respectable comp % (Kirk Cousins:13.2 Att/TA, 66.3% & Derek Carr:13.16 Att/TA, 62.9%) . Only 3 more Attempts per Throwaway than Zach who sits at 10.14 Att/TA and 54.9%. His completion % is an issue. It would be one thing if he were slightly below average, low-mid 60%, but he's been a 55% passer since last year. That's just objectively awful. Worst in the league awful. I think this whole conversation started in an attempt to see if Zach's throwaways we're significantly high (they're high but not significantly so IMO) and as a way to see if the TAs affected his comp% in a statistically significant way. Let's take a look at that. First, let's just put Zach on par with Carr and Cousins and put him around a 13 Att/TA. In this scenario he's got either 10 or 11 TAs instead of 14 which would put him at either 14.2 Att/TA or 12.9 Att/TA. Let's give Zach the benefit of the doubt and give him a completion instead of a throwaway (which is a large assumption as it could just as easily be a normal incomplete pass), he'd still have either a 57.74% or a 57.04% completion percentage. That's still objectively awful. Let's take it a step farther and give him a league average Att/TA. To set up my dataset for this, I only included QBs that have played 5 or more games this season (same # as Zach or more). It should be known that there are 2 massive outliers in this data set as Jimmy G has only 1 TA on 209 Atts this season (unbelievable) and Mitchell Trubisky only has 1 TA on 128 Atts which puts their respective Att/TA at 209 and 128. For comparison, the next highest Att/TA value is at 46.5 with Tua Tagovailoa. These 2 alone skew the average drastically as if you omit them both (Jimmy G and Mitch) that Att/TA avg drops down from 32.11 to 23.31 Att/TA. However, for the sake of transparency, let's give Zach both of these "league average" Att/TA numbers. To get Zach to both of these numbers (32.11 and 23.31 Att/TA), Zach would only have 4 or 5 total TAs (35.5 & 28.4 Att/TA respectively) or 6 total TAs (23.66 Att/TA). Again, same as above, let's generously assume Zach completes all these passes instead of them being throwaways, that would give him either 8, 9, or 10 more completions on the year. 8 more completions puts him a 60.5%, 9 puts him at 61.2%, 10 puts him at 61.9%. Sounds good, right? These comp % would put him at 30th, 29th, and 29th respectively in the league. Even if we give Zach the benefit of the doubt in a lot of areas and neglect to do so with everyone else, he's one of the least accurate QBs in the league this year. Here's the Excel Doc I used to calculate these figures just so everyone knows I wasn't up to any funny business. None of this is to dunk on Zach. As most on this board know, I've been on team Zach since he was drafted and I still truly believe that he has all the tools to be a successful NFL QB. His recent struggles have given me more reservations as to whether or not I think he can be that but it's still not totally out of the realm of possibility. The one thing we should all be able to agree upon is that Zach just has to be better. He needs to stop back-pedaling, step up into/stand strong in the pocket, and throw the ball with confidence and timing within the structure of the offense. We've seen him do these things, albeit in a limited capacity. If he can learn to do these things consistently, the sky is the limit both for Zach and this offense.
One more thing I will say: teams just don't give up on top drafted QB's. It was truly a borderline decision if the Jets should keep Sam Darnold or not (#3 overall pick in 2018) after 3 seasons, with the third season being truly one of the worst ever, with the Jets going (2-14). Another factor in that decision was the Jets having the #2 overall pick in 2021 to replace him. In my opinion, Zach has played better and looked better than Sam ever did for the Jets. He has made some similar mistakes, which is alarming, but his good outweighs his bad so far. So all you fans hoping that Zach gets replaced or benched or anything like that: change your approach. He is the Jets franchise QB and will be here for a long time, struggles or not. So cheer him on. Wish him well. His success, is the Jets' success.
Sam was better than Zach. Better stats and more importantly he did it under Gase and Jeremy Bates. Put Zach on those teams and he'd look like Nathan Peterman.
I didn’t mean that, I welcome you joining the conversation, what at meant to say is that what I said without the initial thread has caused it to be interpreted out of context. I was not defending Zach performance as you know, and the final call was what it was, but as a direct rebuttal to another poster assessment of a blown call with the shoulda coulda implication on a different game that luckily gave us the win. Matter of fact, even with Zach poor performance in the second half of this game, I firmly believe if our interception return for a TD stands, we win the game. Peace.
Not sure how many times I have to say this but I watch every game, the stats just happen to back up what I'm seeing with my eyes. Would appreciate it if you'd stop making things up.
