There's no chance to hit your ceiling until you start reliably hitting your floor. Good game for our young QB! Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
His passer rating is artificially low; if Breece Hall doesn't get tackled at the 1 twice, it would be 85.7.
Pavia breaks down Zach Wilson and the Jets offense. I have not had a chance to watch the film yet as I am stuck in a zoom meeting until at least noon. But, I am looking forward to it. Pavia is my favorite Jets analyst. I can't wait to watch this video. https://jetsxfactor.com/2022/10/11/ny-jets-offense-identity-film/
Good analysis and breakdown. I disagree with the conclusion he made on the throw to Elijah Moore to the right sideline at around the 6:00 minute mark on his tape. While I do agree that the throw wasn't a good one because Wilson didn't drive off his back leg, it was still "NFL catchable" and Moore could have caught it. IOW, it was not a terrible decision to throw it, nor a terrible throw under the circumstances. The pocket was collapsing, getting pushed right into him. At that moment he had to make a choice: bail out of there and maybe look to make an off schedule play, or stick with the play and try to "short arm" it. Actually "short arming" isn't quite correct...he actually short stepped it because he wasn't able to step up as far as he should have to be able to drive it due to the OL being pushed into him. And Zach has the arm strength to make that pass using mostly his arm, and nearly completed it. Would it have taken a great effort by Moore to snag it? Absolutely. But it was catchable. The only other alternative for Zach in that moment besides trying to scramble and make an off schedule play would've been to throw it away. I think he made a reasonable decision there that just didn't work out. On another play - the throw to Davis on the left side line at about 16:30 on his tape - I do agree that he should've thrown underneath to Conklin. That said, this was clear PI that wasn't called. No real argument that Conklin was the better decision, but again, throwing to Davis wasn't a "bad" decision, and he threw it where only Davis could catch it, and would have if he hadn't been interfered with. I'm also not as certain as Pavia seems to be that the lack of deep attempts by Zach are due to him "being afraid" to make a turnover. I think he's learned his lessons well, and is taking what the defense is giving him - or what his receivers can give him as targets and how much time the OL can give him. Zach has always shown utmost belief in his arm, and if he is given the time and opportunity to throw deep he will. In the meantime, he's playing smart by working the shorter game.
I don't think Pavia said it was a bad decision to Moore just that Wilson hesitates because of Tomlinson being driven back into him. He hesitates for a second and it throws off his mechanics and he does not bring his hips through the ball. Yes, Moore could and probably should have caught it but Wilson could have used better mechanics. Pavia was trying to use that play as an example of Wilson's mechanics degrading under pressure. When we look at Wilson everything is mental and confidence. When he plays with confidence he plays so much calmer and free aand as a result his mechanics are so much better. We see this time and time again. When he gets pressured he sometimes hesitates and makes mistakes. As he gets more and more and more experience these things will likely get better. We can already see his mechanics are much better than last year. His back leg is so much calmer and that hop on his last step seems gone. He looks so much calmer when throwing. We saw Warner point out bad mechanics pointing his left out left on the throw to Hall against the Steelers but we have only seen him do that a twice this year. He has only played 14 games and he has been noticeably better over those 14 games. He is a work in progress that is trending upwards. We should be happy. I am sure there will be lots of adversity and bad play by Zach but as long as he keeps trending up it is hard not to be excited.
It is also important to understand the dynamics of the game. We were going against a third string rookie QB. No reason whatsoever to make a risky throw. The only way we really lose that game is through a mistake ie big turnover.
What I meant by "bad decision" is that I don't think Zach unconsciously didn't set his back leg as Pavia says. I think Zach knew he wasn't going to be able to step up into it all the way, but counted on his arm strength to be able to do it anyway. IOW, it wasn't a case of Wilson's mechanics "breaking down", it was more a case of him not being able to have clean mechanics because the OL was collapsing. Some might argue reasonably that he should've either thrown it away or tried to scramble out of there and make an off schedule play, but Zach gambled that he had enough arm and that Moore has enough athletic ability to make the play. One might also harken to Warner's point that sometimes Zach takes the "safer" play when there are more profitable ones there if he would just hang in there a bit longer. In any case I don't think this was a terrible decision by Zach.
Tim Jenkins looks at Zach Wilson vs. Miami. Jenkins is one of the best if not the best QB gurus out there. I have not had a chance to watch the video yet as I am having a day at work where OI am doing more work than I want to.I am pretty excited to see this video. Jenkins was the 1st big names in 2021 to jump on the Wilson bandwagon ahead of people like Simms etc.
I just got a chance to watch it and it is interesting as he did some of the plays that Pavia did in his interview earlier. Both did a very good job. Pavia seems to spend more time on each play but Jenkins seemed mostly agree just in less words. I liked how Jenkins highlighted the great play design by MLF. Jenkins also does the play that @ColoradoContrails talked about from the Pavia video earlier where he throws to Moore. Jenkins said mostly good mechanics but maybe his left hip comes through to early. That might be a dispute between the two videos.
I really like Quincy's highlighting of the off ball movement of Elijah Moore that really was a key aspect aspect of allowing Breece to break this. The fake out then in, made both defenders collide and gave Zach a bigger window and Breece room to break free after the catch. Too bad they don't have stats for that.
The entire play. the TE moving left to simulate the run. Corey Davis moving right to left the keep the defenders eyes focused on him as Hall runs by. Halls simulated block. The nice fake handoff by Zach. Zach staring at the middle of the field to hold everyone before shifting to Hall. Berrios fighting with the blocks the entire play. The play design was great and everyone executed great. One thing that both Jenkins and Pavia did really well was highlight how well designed many of MLF's plays are and how he helps Zach. Edit: Oh you meant the other Hall play where EM takes out two men. Yes, nice job by Moore! I have watched too many videos today.
One more short video. Sabo breaks down how MLF adjusted to what the Dolphins were doing with the throw to Hall.
