None of this is good, but at least you guys in the gulf dont really have much of a tidal swing... and the NE (strongest) part of the storm will have the wind blowing offshore. I think wind and rain flooding will be a bigger issue. GFS and Euro are currently both a tad west of NHC, so I'm sticking with my original prediction. dug out one of my drainage swales before the game yesterday (predicting 8-10" of rain here).. will tighten up backyard after work today
If they get stuck send me a message and I'll see if I can help out. Would say they could head up to my commercial property in Hernando, has an aptartment in back, but it will probably be just as bad up there. Of course it might pull a Charlie and I'll be right in the path in the middle of the state here.
At least I had already scheduled my fingerprinting, drug test and ID pic for the new job for today instead of waiting until Wed. or Thurs. Then I have to get back and baby proof the condo for the grandbaby, I wonder if I can find a "My 1st Hurricane" t-shirt for her.
next nhc advisory should be at 11.... but next model updates around noon (but euro is way slower to populate the data)
N of Tampa should fare much better in terms of surge vs S. end of Tampa / bay area, but may get more wind damage.... I'm forecast to get 10-15" of rain in a day... may be filling sandbags tommorrow
According to the graphic, right now my area is in the 10-15 inches with the 15-20 inches getting close, my one daughter is in that dark purple that is over 20 inches and I don't think they are going to leave, still trying to convince them. The storm surge is going to be a monster if this stalls like they are saying.
Dealing with the same. My daughter doesn’t want to leave either. Stubborn as hell( no idea where she got it from)
FUCK! Major downturn overnight for EVERYONE! She needs to leave unless she's in a SOLID structure high above ground (and can move their vehicles to an elevated parking garage. Shit just got ALOT worse for us too. Off to fill sandbags
bad part is not just the fact thats ALOT of rain, with the surge it has nowhere to egress. That's what happenned with Irma up here
Slower moving = NO BUENO Don't like this at all... the gap in the windfields = hurricane pathway https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...ographic=-85.04,28.06,2224/loc=-76.788,31.047
All the rain we have had over the last few weeks has already made it bad. Add another 10-15 inches and even in the middle of the state here is going to be terrible. I'll have a good view of it though.
Yesterday they had the shear knocking it down a few pegs in intensity, doesn’t seem to be the case today.
No, they have the storm moving faster to beat the shear.... FUCK THIS SUCKS just got a storm surge warning on my phone. They upped it to 3-5 and increased the rain to over 15" filled 20 sandbags, off to get more Rebuilt my flooded house 5 years ago.... I'm not doing it again
The NWS keeps issuing storm surge warnings that then wind up several feet less than the projection. This is probably because the modeling is still catching up to the emerging reality of sea level rise and thermal expansion. However the attempts to make sure people are warned about what are likely worst case scenarios backfire when the surges don't do the projected damage. This makes people take the next warning less seriously. All of this is leading up to a Key West/Homestead type disaster when people ignore the warning and an actual record-setting surge comes in and drowns a few hundred people.
So sorry to hear about this. It just totally sucks to have your house under threat. You might want to plan to raise the foundation a few feet or even put it up on stilts. Whatever the next few years brings it is pretty clear the tide is rolling in on a lot of Florida over the next couple of decades.
Upped the rain for my area also, up to 15-20 inches now. Looks like tornado watches will be coming soon. @typeOnegative13NY St.Pete is not out of danger but looking a lot better than it was this morning. If your daughter is near 49th st and 54th Ave I'll have regular texts coming in from there tomorrow as long as my daughter doesn't lose service, I'll keep you updated just in case your daughter loses phone service.
