TBH the media had Buffalo taking Hall with pick 57, not pick 25. The highest Hall was predicted to go was 37 to Houston, which is who we jumped to draft him.
Maybe TDN was thinking about this article. NFL draft 2022 notes and rumors - Last-minute updates on potential Round 1 trades, rising prospects, surprise picks (espn.com)
Yes, all this goes to prove again what Mark Twain said: "There are 3 kinds of lies: Lies; damnable lies; and statistics." Not only do they lack context by themselves, they can be bent and shaped to almost any purpose. That's not to say they're useless, but whoever is discussing them have to agree on their value, which often is NOT what happens - people throw statistics at each other, devoid of context and to cross purposes, and so each party feels they've "won", when neither has.
Generally speaking, reducing the number of picks you have for any reason is a statistical loss of value unless it’s 1 pick for 1 veteran player (financial value aside). However once you get into the range of Round 7, these picks rarely bring any more value than UDFA’s. The Jets have yet to make a selection in the 7th round under Douglas… so if their scouting grades suggest that the 5th round this year is equitable to the 7th round in other years, I understand that thought process. Many quality draft analysts suggested this year had a more rapid drop off than usual, including Daniel Jeremiah who said struggled to choose who to put into his top 150 because guys who made it in this year would have been below 200 in most other years
I can see trading up (or down) a few different ways. First, we've all heard "The draft is a crap shoot". Meaning no one really knows how ANY of these kids will pan out in the NFL, so to 'Fall in love' with a player is dumb, especially if you have to part with draft cap just to trade up to get Mr Unknown (but you love him sooo much!!!!). But then, the players kind of sort themselves out into rounds, with the 1st round seeing the best players, and round 7 seeing those with fewest qualities. So, there IS some level of knowledge about these kids. At least as far as how they did in college. Maybe it comes down to your scouting dept, and how good they are at identifying talent and how good the GM is at doing the same. MAYBE JoeD and his band of merry men are really good at scouting and can see a diamond in the rough? And if so, then maybe it's a good thing to go up and get him and let the junk players get drafted elsewhere? On a side note I thought was funny how quickly a GM can start doubting their own board. When Jerimia Johnson starting falling, and falling, and falling Joe D said they were looking around like "What are we missing????" as in "What did we miss that other GMs must have seen?". Saleh/JD were shocked he was still on the board. LOL they had to check their notes to make sure there wasn't some big red flag they had totally missed!
I saw many mocks with Hall to Buffalo in the 1st. To be fair, I did read hundreds of mocks, but still! Yeah, that is one of them! Thanks.
I read more than a handful of mocks that had Hall going to Buffalo at the end of the first. And there were more than a handful of Bills fans who were pissed we got him at the top of the second.
Conversely it’s just as silly to worry about trading away a pick which will not only be just as much of an unknown but an unknown you feel less confident in, otherwise that unknown would be ahead of the unknown you’re considering trading up for. With all prospects being an unknown, the only consideration is your personal judgement on whether you are willing to risk missing out on a player you have to trade up for versus missing out on a player who may not be there on your next pick beyond after the pick you trade away.
Anybody who actually watched him play and dominate games in college would love the trade up and love the pick.
It was genius for many reasons, the simplest of which is when you have a chance to draft an ELITE prospect you do it. Carter is good, but Hall is a tier or two above, and he fits the scheme perfectly. You can't lose sleep over a 5th round pick that odds are against him getting a 2nd contract. Not to mention we still walked away from this draft with a full allotment of drafted players (7).
Not sure how much of the following has previously been said, BUT - Hall was an absolutely brilliant selection(and trade) - he's incredibly versatile being able to run efficiently both inside and out. Most importantly though: 1) He has GREAT hands(Wilson was only 64% with passes within 10 yards a result of mindboggling inaccuracy at times, but also DROPS), 2) He is a VERY proficient blocker(a skill so often overlooked - anyone recall Curtis Martin repeatedly manning up on the blitz). Lastly, he has excellent character and proven durability. He will contribute immediately!
Again…I’ll just point out that we gave up a fifth round pick. That’s it. Nothing to cry over when you can jump a team that many thought was going to take your guy, and you go get the consensus top player at the position. I seriously don’t get the issue here. It’s not like we gave up huge currency JD saw the talent in the early to mid rounds and not so much in the late and drafted accordingly. we still got 7 players….just top heavy thanks to previous and current trades that set us up nicely to manage the draft. We got top three talent at 4 positions of need…of course it’s a bit easier to draft when EVERY position is a need, but I can’t see quibbling over this draft much…I would have liked to come away with a LB and a higher OT, so maybe I would’ve left TE alone and used that third rounder on an OT or LB, but at this point, I’ll trust JD to have a better idea on draft prospects than I do…
to me….this is the second strong draft in a row…assuming most of these guys pan out, it sure looks like we’re building a nice foundation primarily through the draft…imagine that! I think we’re in pretty good hands here…
Or it's like this: You can pick 7 yellow duckies for a dollar. One of them has a magic number written on the bottom that will transform your team. How many duckies would you like, Sir?
If that's how it works, then JD should have traded all of his 1st/2nd/3rd/4th round picks for as many 6th & 7th round picks as possible. But yeah, that's not how it works.
