I said the difference in the post. If your skill position guys are on cheap contracts you don't need to completely blow the team up, because you have everything in place except the QB. It's not about finding someone as good as Deebo in the draft. It's about finding someone who is statistically likely to be 70-80% as good as Deebo at 20% of Deebo's cost. That's a lot of extra money that can be used to improve the team elsewhere.
We have money even after Deebo. The cap is a myth in general... no one contract is going to cripple us especially when we have no other big contracts on the books. We also would have the 4th, 35th, 28th and 69th picks in this draft to find four cheap starters which means you don't have to spend on FAs at those positions... if you hit. And that's why giving up the 10th pick for Deebo makes all the sense in the world, you're eliminating the "if you hit" part from the equation with a premium asset.
Yes 2020 was terrible in hindsight (pun intended), but it was Douglas's first draft with a large part of the previous scouting operatus still involved, and of course Douglas taking his HC's "grocery list" into account. Removing Gase's influence, and another year of experience did wonders for JD and I'm optimistic that he'll do at least as well as he did in 2021 tomorrow night.
It's not about having money man, it's about having more or less money. We'd have a lot more with a WR taken at 10 than with Deebo. The guy taken at 10 doesn't even have to be a pro bowler for it to make more sense than trading for Deebo, he just has to be pretty good. If he does end up being a pro bowler though then it's an absolute home run, you eliminate that huge upside outcome by trading for Deebo because as good as he is he'll never be good+cheap.
I just will never ever agree that in 2022 you can get by with a bunch of guys that "dont even have to be a pro bowler". The formula exists. We can check it.
See, you're not taking into account the downside though. The draft Is an absolute crap shoot. You are speaking as If all these prospects at WR In this draft are going to be 75% of a, Deebo Samuels. The truth Is, these kids are more likely to fail than succeed. So If you pass on a proven commodity and you swing and miss on whichever WR we were to draft. Which Is a strong possibility. Then we are In a very bad spot with wasted opportunity and wasted assets through the draft. It's a worse look to me. IMO
Allen had 29 TDs, won 10 games, had QB rating of 85, and led the league in game winning drives. Those are signs you go full force to support him. We're not close to that yet.
don't see it happening. niners have control of him for 2 years minimum and are asking too much. they'd have to come down on their price big time
That was after his second year. After his first very bad rookie year they went and spent. They signed two WRs in Beasley and John Brown, they spent on the OL, they traded up to get OL/TE. Once you do that, you're committing to the QB you have on the roster. The next season they traded a ton for Diggs... but again they had already committed by that point. Why would we not do the same when we have the opportunity? Because it was one year earlier?
Sorry but they didn't go full force Allen's 2nd year. Their biggest signing was a center for 11 mil a year and they traded a 2nd for a guard. They signed Beasley for 7 million and Brown for 9. It was a pretty normal offseason with no splashes.
Two things: -They absolutely went full force after Allen's second year. -If you meant after his first year.. I never said they did. My point was they spent most of their money on the offense and used assets to trade up for offense in the draft. That means you are committing to the guy behind center even if he had one dreadful year.
Bringing in 4 new starters on the OL, two new wide receivers, as well as drafting starters at RB and TE is a normal offseason?
Receivers taken in the top 15 are by no means more likely to fail than succeed. Even receivers just taken anywhere in the first round are pretty likely to succeed. The bust rate for first round WRs over the last 25 years is about 30%: https://bleacherreport.com/articles...e-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft And that's outright busts, not even guys who just turn out to be pretty good like 700 yards per year guys. There's like an 80% chance that a guy taken at 10 overall will at least be pretty good. The receivers taken in the top 10 over the last 5 years have been Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross. So out of 6 receivers there have been 4 studs, one pretty good player and one bust.
Very logical to pass on an elite player in a sport where the salary cap can be manipulated by even the most strapped of teams, let alone a team with no cap issues whatsoever.
Yes this is a normal offseason. Last year we spent more on WR than Buffalo did during Allen's 2nd year, and also more on o-line. The draft is a normal part of the offseason. The starting RB they drafted split time with one of their FA signings, Frank Gore, who finished with more carries.
To the idea that a player at 75% of Deebo's production on a rookie scale is better... That might be undervaluing what that 25% difference is actually worth. How much is it worth to consistently beat double coverage? How much is it worth to match up against top line shut down corners? How much is it worth to secure a pivotal 3rd down catch when everyone in the stadium knows where the ball is going? There is a reason that game changing stars make significantly more than players who only produce 25% less than them. Sent from my Pixel 5a using Tapatalk
