I really don’t put much stock into that. Maybe I should but I don’t. I just watch tons of film as a hobby and when he has the ball in his hands he’s an incredible athlete.
You draft the best player available at positions of need. BPA is how you wind up taking 5 IDL in 10 years in the 1st round. Luckily there are talented players at edge, WR, and safety (2nd round) in this draft.
Need is subjective though. Is it year 1 need? What about in the case of FAs or cuts a year or two down the road? You draft player that you think fit the scheme & will be with the team for 5-10 years. Free agency and trades are for filling needs and balancing the roster. You don't let vets like Fant, Lawson, Mosley, etc. steer you away from taking a future cornerstone. That's especially true for bad teams that are not a player or two away.
You can't draft solely based on BPA. Vets like Fant or Lawson might not be here in 2 years, therefore OT and Edge are needs. Those guys also play a premium position that should always be addressed.
What's with this mindset of not drafting a guy unless you know 100% he's going to be good? It never works like that. Even the guys taken in the top 15 have a decent chance of busting. Your boy Mac was Mr. BPA and almost all of his picks still busted. You can't wait for a Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, or Ja'Marr Chase to come around to draft a WR early. Very few guys are ever sure things, but you're absolutely more likely to get a good WR drafting one earlier than later. It's a game of probabilities. Regarding our WR corps - For one thing, we don't know if Moore is that guy yet. There's good reason to think he is, but we don't know. Regardless of that though, even if he is that guy, we still need another tier 1 WR. Davis is not a good enough #2. He's a guy who averages about 600 yards receiving per year during his career. That's not an acceptable #2 in the modern NFL where almost all of the best teams are the best passing teams. The Rams' third WR last year had significantly more yards than Davis averages. Same with the Bucs. Same with the Chiefs. Same with the Bengals. And again, that's me comparing our 2nd best WR to their 3rd best WRs. Our current unit isn't good enough to compete with the top teams. This isn't the 90's. Plus, like I said, we don't even know for sure if Moore is that clear 1,200 yards per year receiver yet. There is ZERO question we need another tier 1 WR. BPA is a braindead system because it assumes each position contributes equally to wins and losses and that each position costs the same in FA, which are both blatantly false. Some positions like WR and CB are multiples more important than others and save you much more money if acquired in the draft vs. FA. BPA also doesn't account for the diminishing returns you experience drafting too many players at one position because there's only so much playing time to go around. WR is not a position subject to that because there are frequently 3-4 of them on the field at once.
I few random thoughts on reading the last few pages. -You need a good offense and defense to win. But more importantly, the game is still won up front on both sides of the ball. You need several really good big guys. -Drafting DT so many times was only bad because we drafted poorly, not because its a bad idea to have great DTs. One guys head blew up once he got paid, one guy knocked our frigging QB out for the season with a sucker punch, and another under performed when we changed schemes, only to shine again once he got traded. We've had character/culture problems. -Using a first and 2 seconds on a WR over 3 years is a lot of capital at that position. Especially for a rebuilding team with no proven stars at any position yet. If the prospect isn't on the high end of star potential you don't use a top 10 pick on them.
Yeah, he looks amazing. It’s reported JD puts a lot of stock in RAS score and all his picks last year had very high scores.
What evidence is there for this? I think if you look at the consistently good teams you do generally find good OLs, but you also almost always find good WRs and secondary players. Every attempt at quantifying positional importance I've seen shows that generally the further away from the ball a position is the more important it is. I feel like that makes sense in a league dominated by passing. Regarding the DT point - IDL is the single least impactful position outside of kickers and punters, because they generally defend the run and defending the run is the least important thing to do well among passing, pass defense, running, and run defense.
You misunderstand my mindset. There are many reasons I think a WR in the 1st is a waste. The reply you’re quoting is a specific reason based on his specific thinking. Why did you just compare Van Jefferson’s stats from 1 year to the avg for Davis? Seems a bit apples to oranges. Davis’ avg went down bc of this year. Avg to avg, they’re comparable. Best year to best year they’re comparable. Avg to avg Davis has better numbers. Literally the only was VJ has better numbers is by doing it your way…. If you have to manipulate info, maybe your point isn’t as spot on as you think it is. No one is advocating drafting BPA.
I don’t know what evidence there is that the game is won in the trenches but since that’s what our FO believes, we should probably get on board.
You're correct in the first part. As for the second, you won't know for sure that you have a stud WR, but you'll have a greater level of assurance that you do if your GM is competent.
And so did I, but then he was hurt and didn't play the whole season. I felt the same assurance and was reinforced in that when we drafted Becton, and then look what happened. We simply do not have enough dependable, high quality WRs (among other things).
The thing is, we might have 3 high quality WRs already. We definitely don’t have a game breaking EDGE (as heard ad nausium) We definitely don’t have a lockdown corner We definitely don’t have a running mate for Carter We definitely don’t believe the Jets are happy at LB We probably want to replace our C We can all agree on 5 or 6 positions that could use an upgrade so it all comes down to scouting. If the Jets decide 1 receiver is the perfect fit for the scheme and his talent knock them off their seat, i hope they draft him at 4. If they have 9 EDGE who they like all the same, I hope they wait until the 2nd rd to take one etc etc. Last year when the CS and SD worked together imo they nailed just about every pick and definitely the 1st 4 rounds. We have 7 picks in the 1st 4 rounds so to me that means we come out of this draft with 7 starting caliber players. WR, RB, C, DE, LB etc will all be addressed but I think it’s going to come to to who is available and when. If Tyler or Zion, or Cole Strange fall to a spot where it makes sense, we have a new C this year, if they don’t fall then we rock with McGovern. If we do end up with Sauce, we trade Hall if we don’t get Sauce, Hall is a yr 3 starter for the Jets etc etc I’m sure there’s a ton of moving parts, so something like we NEED to draft a WR with a premium pick is something I can’t get behind.
Why would you "get on board" if it's not something you believe in? You don't think it means the slightest difference in the way things will go, do you? You don't owe the organization a damn thing - none of us do.
On balance I agree that Douglas and Saleh worked well last year in assessing needs and acquiring the players to fill them. I'm optimistic they'll do the same this year, regardless how we on TGG advise them.
