Your initial point was a "hot take" that made little sense. This is a different point that is more on track. Completion percentage is not rocket science and unlike PFFs bulllllshit it's a not a subjective analysis, its a simple equation we learn in elementary school. Accurate passes can be dropped by the receiver, they can be knocked down by the defender, a bird could fly across the field directly in the path of an accurate pass and cause an incompletion. So yes, completion percentage alone does not show how accurate of a passer someone is. but to say "accuracy has nothing to do with completion percentage" is just plain stupid. Accurate passes are more likely to be completed than inaccurate passes, it has a lot to do with it.
Sure, but you have to admit “nothing to do with” was a bit of an exaggeration. The 1st statement was a stretch, the one in your newer post - more people will stand by that.
Are you familiar with the PFF site at all? I’m not a fan of their analysis either but I love the abundance of stats they use… I just can’t find those niche stats to do my own analysis. Do you- or anyone have experience navigating the site who could help me find some random stuff?
Nah I can't help ya, I'm not a subscriber or anything. I used to listen to a radio show that had PFF leadership on weekly to discuss how they develop their analysis so thats all I really know. They watch each player, every play and assign them a score based on how they think they performed, very subjective and even the PFF guy acknowledged its a lot of guessing especially when it comes to line play
PFF grades are flawed, but they aren't biased. So if they keep grading Jets players lower than TGG posters do, the problem is with TGG's evaluations, not theirs. (If TGG posters were really better at evaluating players than PFF, we'd see TGG posters thinking some Jets players are worse than what PFF says, which we virtually never see.)
They are biased, the grades come down to humans assigning them and humans are biased. Whats interesting is that they don't hire former players, coaches, or scouts to assign these grades, they are cheap and hire anyone with interest. So TGG posters could very well be the ones making the PFF evaluations!
Interesting article, especially about the correlation between the high school comp % and comp % by the time they finish their college career. Zach's H.S. Comp % was 61.9%, his average at BYU was 67.6%. While these stats aren't based on a huge sample size according to the article, they seem pretty reliable as an indicator of future performance. Also, very interesting is that: "I have no doubt that Mullen’s assertion that the way to improve accuracy is to improve ball placement is true. I also suspect that it’s improving a player at the margins because the decision-making aspect of accuracy is an inherent trait rather than a taught one." I've posted this belief here before. I linked it to hand-eye coordination, which is a physical act rooted in mental processing, and which I believe people are born with a higher degree or lower degree of ability. This doesn't mean you can't improve accuracy with lots of practice and repetition - see Allen, Josh for a good example - but that's the exception, not the rule. There are people who just come out of the womb being able to be accurate - they seem to have a "sixth sense" about how to connect with a target by throwing an object, even when the target is moving. Bottom line: while Zach's senior year Comp % of 73.5% has to be tempered by the level of competition he faced, his overall Comp % of 68% seems well rooted in his predicted success based on his high school CP% of 62%. Based on this, I think people should feel confident that he'll reach at least his college average going forward. As an aside: did you ever watch Joe Kapp or Billy Kilmer throw the ball? I know, whole different era, but still, the idea that you need a pinpoint passer to win is overstated. What you need is a QB who knows where to throw the ball, and can get it there in a reasonable way that it can be caught.
Is "the writer" some kind of infallible football god, or just another guy on the internet? Is that all it takes for you to accept what is written? Answer this question - do you agree or disagree with the statement "Completion percentage has nothing to do with accuracy"?
It's called a touch pass, and it wasn't under thrown. The irony being, the play you used as an example is a throw Zach cant even make.
Anyone have the OT pass Wilson threw to Cole against TN? He laid that in perfectly. Not sure what Ouchy is smoking these days.
I lived through the most ridiculous “accuracy” takes for 3 years on josh Allen, so please learn from what I’m about to say on “accuracy.” When josh came out, we heard he was not accurate. I really had no way of knowing whether that was true or not because I never watched him play full games of a full schedule. After his first year in Buffalo, his completion percentage was something like 52%. The analysts who didn’t watch any of the games continued to perpetuate the opinion that josh Allen was not accurate. Except, this time, I watched every snap of every game since he was on the Bills and not at Wyoming. From what I watched that year, I did not think he had any issues with accuracy. Let me first clarify how I define the term accuracy: to me, accuracy means, can you put the ball where you want to? It’s as simple as that. After watching josh his first year, I knew he could put the ball where he wanted, that was never an issue. So then why was his completion percentage so low if he could put the ball where he wanted? I dug a little deeper, which the analysts fail to do these days. Here’s what I found: 1. Allen had the highest amount of air yards per throw, meaning that he attempted deeper passes on each play than any other qb in the league. We know that the deeper the throw, the higher level of difficulty and the lower the percentage it’s complete. The Bills had no “easy” throws built in to their offense like most teams. They didn’t throw bubble screens or short passes. It was all intermediate/deep. This hurt completion percentage. 2. Allen had the highest percentage of dropped passes in the league. Just simply adjusting this one stat to the mean brought his percentage over 60% alone. 3. The biggest issue with josh his first year was never accuracy, it was decision making. Allen didn’t really grow up the way top qbs do. He wasn’t invited to the camps, he didn’t learn from any coaches or schools, he was lucky enough to get to Wyoming but I wouldn’t say he had good coaching or played the best competition there either. This is why most analysts said josh would not be ready year one. Of course, he got thrown into week 1 because of none other than Nathan peterman. He had trouble understanding defenses that year, and he struggled with knowing where the ball should go on each play. That lead to him holding onto the football and either making chaotic throws on the run or trying to force throws where they shouldn’t be forced. This lead to many incompletions, but it never had to do with his actual accuracy. Josh busted his ass in the off-season to study defenses (and also continued to improve mechanics) and came into year 2 much improved. He did the same coming into year 3. I maintain that he never had accuracy issues because to me, he never had a problem putting the ball where he wanted to when he had time to throw and had his feet set because he made good decisions. The only time I would say he had accuracy issues was specifically with the deep ball in year 2, which he rectified that offseason with a simple change in mechanics. If I could impart years of wasting time on this to jets fans so you don’t have to do the same, take this away from me: when discussing accuracy, use the eye test. Can he put the ball where he wants to, when he wants to? That’s all that matters. The rest probably has a lot to do with decision making and less about actually hitting the target.
Very sound analysis. Although I will disagree, he looked pretty inaccurate (by your definition) at Wyoming, which is why I didn't think he could do what he did. The other thing that "convinced" me he would be a bust in the NFL was that he was so successful at running that he didn't really have to learn how to be accurate or read defenses. I admit I was completely wrong about him. The one thing I DID think at the time that he would do well in Buffalo with that cannon of an arm that was able to handle the ridiculous winds and cold weather, similar to what he played in at WY. I was right about that at least! And for many of same reasons you gave for Allen succeeding, I believe Zach will also. If anything, he'll do so faster because while his arm isn't quite as strong as Josh's I do think he has better accuracy, and he is actually making the right reads for the most part (based on how he ended the season). You guys caught "lightening in a bottle", although I won't say it was luck. You're very fortunate to have a F.O. and CS that know what they're doing for a few years now and they knew what they were doing with Allen. I think Douglas and Saleh are the right team for us finally so hopefully we can begin to pay back some of the "lessons" you've taught us.
-Zach Wilson's high school stats are completely irrelevant. - Joe Kapp retired from the game of football over 50 years ago so that's obviously irrelevant as well seeing as how the game has changed and lastly, we better hope its not a god given trait and its more of something he can work to improve upon because if what we saw last year is god given then damn
I can’t imagine the PFF “analysts” are extremely skilled football graders or they’d be making more than what they make. https://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/Pro-Football-Focus-Salaries-E1628531.htm Looks like the range for “analyst” ranges from $12-20 per hour. They have a great marketing team though. That’s where they probably pay their people.
