Jets: 6 DB's over last two drafts--don't waste what you paid for

I get what you're saying and mostly agree though maybe not as strongly. I've had similar thoughts. If the goal is to adhere to the build-through-the-draft philosophy, then it makes sense to focus on developing the players you've picked as long as they're showing well and leaving the FO/CS with optimism. You've got to let these guys play rather than potentially hindering their development with free agents or especially high draft picks that would reduce their playing time and opportunities. Trust the plan and process. Of course, every GM is going to miss on picks so it's important to acknowledge this and hope JD will identify when it's not working out and bring in additional draft picks at a position, even if it's the next year. For example, let's say hypothetically the FO/CS has minimal confidence in Ashtyn Davis and think Pinnock is still a longshot to develop into starter, they FS should be a top priority in this draft. If they still really like that group, then they should pass on FS unless it's the perfect player and value.

I do agree that's been the case for the secondary so far as you point out and would not be upset if they passed on DBs in the draft, especially CBs. Reed is one starter for sure (and I think he could be a very good one). Hall is another. Carter is probably another. And depth looks decent (Echols, Guidry & Dunn). S is dicier but Pinnock played well in a limited sample so I wouldn't even be totally opposed to letting Pinnock compete with Joyner and I guess Davis (apparently there's still hope for him with another offseason per Hughes or Cimini). However if the right player is available in the draft, I wouldn't be mad about a S or CB early though don't think it's an absolute must. I think infusing the DL (Edge and interior) with talent on Day 1 & 2 is more of the priority.

 

Here’s the thing, JD referred to those late round picks as “lottery tickets” so his confidence in them being legit starters is not there. He might of said that to cover his ass too but realistically he believes that you field them and if they work out like Hall did that’s great. If not then that’s ok too because he didn’t use high draft capital on them.

 

They arent busts, but no one can deny a lock down corners importance these days.

 

Fair enough

 

Hall is an NFL starter. Not a lockdown corner but definitely an NFL starter. If you don’t think an NFL starter with 2 yes left on a rookie contract doesn’t have trade value, you haven’t been paying attention.

Regarding the 3 CBs we took last year, 1 is a starting Nickel, 1 is learning the S position, the other is still raw but showed potential. None are being wasted.

 

Our secondary got burned badly last year.

Sure we put band aids on in free agency but ignoring the opportunity to improve is never a good idea.

What we spent on our current DBs is irrelevant if their production is less than the value of what we gave up.

All the matters is how good is our secondary now, is the player available a good value, and how much would our secondary become if we add that player?

Anyone who thinks we have to go all in on a WR in a year where we have no shot at winning the SB is nuts.

 

The Jets draft strategy is like whack-a-mole except they're just a bit slow on the whack.

This is because they're constantly trying to flesh out a roster instead of building a team.

If you always take the best talent available then you build hard spots on the field around which the weaker spots can rally or be replaced if it becomes clear they are not up to the task. As the hard spots become dominant you begin to develop a team identity and the lesser pieces become better players in the process because their roles become clearly defined. The team persona develops as players are used to best effect in a clear and coherent plan that does not change much over time. It becomes easier to maintain the quality of play as the systems and players mesh.

Or you could be like the Jets and draft for need all the time and change coordinators like clockwork and watch regimes fall sequentially over the years and eventually over the decades.

 

Maccagnan was probably the purest example of a BPA at all cost GM I've ever seen and he was an absolute disaster for our franchise. Not only because most of his picks underperformed their draft spots, but because they were mainly players at low-impact positions. So even if they hadn't busted it's unclear how much they would've contributed to wins and losses.

Mac's first round picks were:

IDL
S
ILB
IDL

We're currently extremely weak at all of those positions.

BPA completely ignores positional value, despite the fact that some positions are literally multiples more important for wins and losses than others. JD had a bad first draft but his last one was based totally on need and is looking like a very good draft so far.

 

I don't think Maccagnan's drafts were actually the best player available, with the possible exception of Jamal Adams.

Maccagnan's drafts were designed to reinforce the 3-4/4-3 hybrid that the Jets had been running since Rex arrived. They were all solid value picks but not best player available. The ILB was supposed to add a coverage dimension the Jets were missing.

Jamal Adams was a unique case and I hope the Jets never draft another so obviously self-centered player.

 

There's a lot of evidence regarding Mac's draft philosophy of BPA:



He said the same thing regarding the Leonard Williams pick.

Mike Maccagnan Warns Against Drafting Based on Need

Next Thursday through Saturday, in the Jets' meeting room during the NFL Draft, don't expect general manager Mike Maccagnan or anybody else to openly discuss how badly the team must fill a need at a certain position.

That goes completely against Maccagnan's philosophy, as he explained Friday at his pre-draft press conference.

These are topics Maccagnan has covered before -- that he prefers to fill positional needs through pro free agency, and that he would rather pick the best player available in the draft than select based heavily on positional need.

He offered even deeper insight Friday into his thought process, as the draft approaches. He made it clear he isn't a fan of attempting to fill needs exclusively via the draft.

"To me, it's one of those pet peeves," he said. "Need and the draft, I've seen a lot of mistakes being made over the years with that. So I've been very diligent, when I'm given this opportunity [as a rookie GM], I'm going to try to keep it as separate as possible. Now, obviously, every team has needs. I get that. You want to solve them as best you can. But just because you take somebody, and if he doesn't pan out, you're still going to have the same need a year from now. And you won't have solved the problem."

There are a lot of other direct comments from him about how much he believes in the BPA philosophy and that FA is for filling needs.

 

I think the Jets talent evaluation systems were skewed certainly during Idzik's tenure and also into Maccagnan's.

They took an amazing number of flat players with little growth potential between 2013 and 2020. It's absolutely unclear to me that the people rating players even understood what the likely growth potential in the players they liked were.

This resulted in a bunch of picks where the player was at their ceiling when drafted and then just sort of floated along from there until it became clear the Jets couldn't get a lot out of them.

Even a good player, like Quinnen Williams, can be a drag over time if their potential is never reached - then the question becomes was that potential ever there or were they running at 100% of cap when drafted?

Leonard Williams and Quinnen Williams were both good players when drafted, however they were not the hard points you need to grow the rest of the team. They didn't get better year over year, forcing opposing offenses to focus hard on them and opening up room for other players to develop around them. Instead they sat there being the same player they were when they were drafted. In Leo's case the Jets finally had their hand forced and dealt him when the second contract was on the horizon. There is no reason to believe at this point that the Jets will not be forced to do the same again when Q's contract comes due.

With top 10 picks you *have* to find an All-Pro or the economics of keeping them gets all messed up because they're not taking anything less than an All-Pro contract the second time around.

 

Well no one expected the Jets to move up for AVT last year...

Would be a JD move where we are all scratching our heads on draft night only to come here and see everyone say, wow, what a great move!

We got the best Edge or best OT at #4 and the best CB in the draft!!!

Personally if your scouting department is not great past the no miss prospects, this is exactly the move you make.

 

If your scouting department is not great past the no-miss prospects you might as well trade all your picks for average players and wind up going 7-10 every year.

Seriously, if people don't recognize what a disaster the AVT trade up was after the Jets signed a 30 year old LG and moved AVT to RG they never will.

And I get that AVT is a good player but signing a post-prime LG and moving AVT in year two is a really bad look after the Jets traded 2 3rd rounders last year to take him.

 

Can we really consider someone who just made the Pro Bowl, "post-prime"? Seems to me like they're in the peak of their prime.

 

Laken Tomlinson just made his first Pro Bowl at 29. Odds are really good that was his only Pro Bowl and he's now 30.

The NFL is a really tough environment to play and excel in.

When I saw the Laken Tomlinson signing the first thing I thought was: JD is going to make every mistake the franchise has made before he got here and he's going to make them all as big as he can.

 

I'm inclined to agree. If Gardner or Stingley are sitting there at 35, you obviously take them no questions asked.

Outside of extreme value, I'd probably avoid the CB position. I actually though Echols came on strong and had the kind of rookie year you love to see from a sixth round pick. Michael Carter had a strong rookie year in the slot, and Pinnock impressed after the move to safety.

This isn't to say their budding stars or anything, but I was encouraged by the play of all three, as well as Hall.

If you want to hit on late round picks, they need to play. I'm OK with CB going into the season as is.

 

Couldn't agree more……give Echols, Hall, Reed, and Carter a pass rush and see what you have. If it doesn’t work look at CBs next year while filling bigger holes this year.