I've held off on doing a Mock until after the primary FA signings were done, and also to try and settle some questions in my mind. I have to also give due credit to everyone who has already shared their thoughts, either on individual players, and/or having done their own mocks. Here are some of the questions I've been trying to resolve with no way of knowing the answer: 1. What do the Jets really think about Becton? Do they think he can come back 100% and fulfill his potential? Or, if they have questions, are they ready to move on completely, meaning they'll want to draft his replacement this year, or are they willing to hedge their bets, and draft someone who could replace him if necessary, and serve as depth otherwise? 2. Are they going to trade for a #1 WR before the draft? Or will they look to fill that role in the draft? 3. Are they really happy with their LBers, or is that smoke to cover their true draft intentions? 4. Similar to LB, are they really happy with their CBs as Saleh has said, or is this actually a position they want to upgrade? Okay, enough with the questions. BTW: this is a "no trade back" mock since I have no way of knowing who JD might trade with and what he might wind up with. That said, I DO think he's going to trade back. So, here's what I hope the Jets do, and I'll include my justifications: #4 - Ikem Ekwonu G/T - I think Becton's days as a Jet are numbered. Best case is that he returns 100% and achieves his potential, but he's shown some definite "red flags" that argue against that happening, so given how important having a strong OL is, I'm going to err on the side of caution and take Ekwonu who can play both G and T, although he's better suited to G mainly because of height. If possible, I'd try and trade Becton before the draft to get additional assets, otherwise, I'd see what happens when he returns and maybe keep him and let Fant go next year. Okay, this pick depends a lot on whether JD gets a #1 WR before the draft. So I'm doing a 10A (Gets a WR before draft) and 10B (Doesn't get one) #10A - George Karlaftis DE/Edge - They need a true pass rushing DE who can also play all 4 downs and Karlaftis fits the bill. All the other DE/Edges have holes in their game with the possible exception of Hutchinson who won't even last to 4. I think Karlaftis is the best of the next group. #10B - Jameson Williams WR - Even with the ACL injury, he's ahead of schedule to return to 100% form, which was that he was the #1 ranked WR before he got hurt. While there are a number of good WRs in this class, Williams possesses the size, speed, route running, and quickness to complement the current Jets receiving room. Worst case is they have to wait a few games for him to return to full ability, but given his potential it's worth it IMO. The next pick is also dependent on what they already did before. Most likely scenario IMO is they took Ekwonu, so it then depends on did they take a WR at #10? #35A is if they took Williams at 10; #35B is if they took Karlaftis. #35A - If Jermaine Johnson is still on the board, I'd take him, but given how good pass rushers are scooped up early, I think he won't be, so my pick here is Arnold Ebiketie from Penn St. While both these guys are in the "second tier" of Edges, they have the potential to become All Pros. #35B - Christian Watson WR - Like Williams, physically complements the receivers room with great size, speed, natural pass catching ability, and catches everything thrown in his vicinity which should really help Zach. Also, he's been used on jet sweeps which is part of the Jets offense. However the preceding three picks went, in my draft they would already have their OL, Edge, WR one way or the other, so now I'm looking at the best value for TE, Safety, CB, LB, DT, RB. For this mock I'm going to trust them when they say they like their LBers and CBs, so I'm looking for TE, Safety, DT, RB here. #38* - Jaquan Brisker S - I think Brisker brings the most value for the positions of need remaining. Safety was a "Black Hole" in 2021 and while they added two good veterans, getting a potential All Pro to work into the mix makes sense to me. * NCJetsfan pointed out they have #38 not #39 as I originally posted. Thx NC! At this point I think the Jets will have filled their highest positions of need, so I'm looking now for TE, DT, RB. #69 - Perrion Winfrey DT - Since the Jets signed two good TEs as FAs the need to get one in the draft isn't as great as helping the DL and run game, which Winfrey should do. #111 - Jerome Ford RB - Again, since they signed two good pass catching TEs, I'm leaning towards upgrading the running game and Ford has great athletic ability, and I see it as a big plus having played in big time games in college. He'll need to work on his receiving and pass blocking skills, but both are rated as "average" and he should be able to improve them. #117 - Jelani Woods TE - Woods has everything you want in a TE, but he only played 2 years in that position in college so he's going to be a bit raw, but because they already signed two vet TEs this should work out well and give him time to learn and grow into the role. #146 - Troy Andersen LB - This is a "hope for" that he falls to this range where the Jets can get him. Maybe JD even works a trade up to get him. He might fall because he's from the FCS and only played 2 years as a LB, playing QB before that actually. He's got good size, speed, quickness, and I think playing QB sharpened his ability to read plays. #163 - Cade York K - I still think the Jets need to get a stud Kicker and Cade York could be that guy. Some might question using a 5th round pick on him, but Kickers can be the difference between winning and losing - as we sadly saw last season. He's got the leg - made a 60 yarder through the fog in La (heavy air), and is clutch - made several game winning kicks inside of two minutes. Okay there it is for better or worse. I may well do another cut in a week or so taking into account any comments that I think are relevant. Have at it!
I believe that your draft could be really close to how they are going to go about it. Only thing I might see differently is the 10th pick. I believe Jets will select JJ and then use the 35th or 38th pick to jump back into mid 1st round to grab Burks. Great Job CC!
Nice one CC! I think the Becton situation is completely real and we’ll see in a month what the Jets really think of him. Don’t like the Watson pick a fast rising division 2 player doesn’t sit well. His tape isn’t very impressive either… I got to say it’s really amazing that across the TGG board that does mocks. Almost everyone has Jerome Ford on the list!!! I love this player. He’s my #2 RB in the draft only behind Hall but not by much. JD take a hint and draft this stud in the 4th!!! All ur other picks make sense
Yeah, I know Watson is a bit controversial, and also that Douglas doesn't usually (ever so far actually) draft Div. II players, but he's such an athletic freak and he actually HAS shown that he can make all the catches, and I think that transfers at any level. A safer pick there would've been Dotson from PSU who I really like, but since we already have Moore who is similar size and style I really want them to get that big, tall, fast WR to balance things. Now, if JD trades for someone like that, it might change my mind, but at this point I'm sticking with Watson. EDIT: The tape I saw of Watson he looked great. Granted against Div II competition, but still. Is there specific film you're referencing to say this?
He didn’t have 1 dominant game in his entire college career. Not 1!!!!!!!! In division 2 lol Cmon guys.. the most dominant game he had this year he had 6 catches for for 61 yards vs the South Dakota coyotes lol second best was 4 catches for 90 yards and a TD vs the Youngstown state penguins lol… He didn’t break 100 yards receiving nor multi TD game in any games in 2021. He’s the definition of: work out warrior + fast riser = land mine.
To be fair, NDSU doesn't pass the ball much at all. I'd probably be OK with us taking him in the 2nd round as CC has us doing in his mock.
I wouldn’t be ok with taking a bust when we need starters in those first 4 picks.. He played in a pro style offence there is no excuse for his lack of dominance in any game he’s ever played in. If you like that flavour of receiver I’d rather have Alec Pierce. He at least played on the largest stage and had some good games against real competition.
Great effort. Listening to the Connor Hughes podcast it appears he thinks the Jets will give Becton another year and draft a backup insurance tackle in later rounds. Hughes seems pretty certain the Jets are going edge at 4 and prioritizing building the dline with a tackle in round 2 or maybe 3. He also seemed confident they will go WR at 10.
Overall, and as usual, an excellent job. I really like the players you took and your rationale for taking them. I doubt that they take an OL in the 1st round, but if they do, I definitely believe that they would want it to be Ekwonu, as would I. I don't think they would take Karlaftis. He's young and raw, and will work his ass off, but there are Edges with higher ceilings than him in this draft. Before Ojabo got hurt, I think he would have been a possibility, but don't think they'd take him now. Even though there are some negatives with Johnson and rumors regarding KT, I think the Jets will take KT if he's there, and if not, they'll take Johnson. Johnson has work/refinement that he needs to do on his pass rush plan, techniques, etc.,however he may be the best Edge in the draft at setting the Edge and at stopping the run, and he has potential has a pass rusher. If not, I think they could trade down and take Ebiketie. He has an elite burst and bend, and is already a very good pass rusher. He needs to get stronger and work on setting the Edge, but that is something he could do while serving as a situational rusher his rookie season. I like Williams a lot, but I think his ACL injury will probably scare the Jets away from taking him. One thing is for certain imo, and that is the Jets will be taking a WR with speed, who can score from anywhere on the field. Therefore, I don't think London is even under consideration. I think the Jets will look to take one of Williams, Wilson, Burks, Watson, and Pickens. Unless they take Wilson at #10, I think you're correct that JD will look to trade down and will then take the WR he wants. I have thought that they would take one of Brisker and Cine at #38, but if Connor Hughes is correct, and it makes sense that he is in this case, because we know that Saleh wants 8 starting-caliber players on the DL, I think he takes one of Travis Jones, Phidarian Mathis or Devonte Wyatt at pick #38. It is pick #38 by the way. There's one site out there, I forget which one, that mistakenly has the Jets picking at #39. They are wrong. Our two 2nd round picks are #35 and #38. Perrion Winfrey is a great prospect, but he is a 3T DT, and therefore, not a prospect for the Jets even though they coached him and he did very well at the Sr. Bowl. Q, JFM, and Marshall are all 3T DTs. Rankins may be as well. They want a DT who can pressure the QB as well, but they primarily want a run stuffer. Therefore, I believe that they will take an NT-type DT in the 2nd round, and they will take a LB at this pick in the 3rd round. I think Andersen, Muma (if he's there), Quay Walker, Channing Tindall, Darrian Beavers, and Brandon Smith are possibilities. IMO it won't be Leo Chenal, as imo he is not a scheme fit and isn't good in coverage. I love the Jelani Woods pick, and the fact that you still took a TE even though we signed 2 in FA. I definitely think the Jets should do this. Ford is fast, athletic, explosive, powerfully built and could be the pick,. I could be wrong, but am uncertain if he will be the pick at RB. I love his speed and athleticism, but supposedly his vision isn't great, nor are his instincts. Maybe that's not important in the Jets' one-cut and go scheme, but it could be. I do think that he will be among the RB they are considering, and will take one of Ford, Dameon Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, Pierre Strong Jr., Rachaad White, and maybe Abram Smith. I don't think there's any way that Andersen will fall to the 5th round, but even if he were to, I think the Jets would have already taken a LB in the 3rd. They could take a K in the 5th, but I think it more likely that they hold off taking a RB until the 5th round and take another WR in the 4th round, perhaps Wan'Dale Robinson or a similar-type WR/RB type who can be their gadget back and give them some of the production that Deebo Samuels brings to the Niners. Moore could do that, but I think they will look to protect him and not overuse him. They will want to keep him healthy. As you know, I totally disagree with you on Becton, and I think and hope the Jets do as well. I think they will take an OT in round 2 as insurance for Becton this year, to serve as insurance in case they aren't able to or don't re-sign Fant, and be their swing OT for this season.
Certainly if they still believe in Becton, they won't use the #4 on an OL and that changes the picks that follow significantly. I may try to do another mock where they keep Becton because the results would be much different. Thanks for the correction on the draft pick #...I'll go ahead and edit my OP to reflect that. And thanks for the rest of your thoughtful responses.
What? NDSU averaged 19 passing attempts per game. NFL teams average 35. NDSU's QBs also do a lot of running. They don't run anything resembling a pro style offense. To be honest I don't disagree with your larger concerns about level of competition. But if we're just looking at stats then there is some context needed for why Watson's production was relatively low.
Playing "devil's advocate" I came across this review of Watson: First, they don't target him a lot. As Revision pointed out, you can't rack up huge numbers if you don't get huge numbers of passes your way. But there are certainly some questions that I see upon closer inspection, like his route running is NOT crisp and I personally believe that this is something that really can't be greatly improved upon usually - either you have the "quick twitch" muscles to make sharp cuts or you don't. And while he easily runs away from the defenders he's played against he won't be able to do that as easily in the pros. That said, he can certainly improve to some degree his route running. And like you can't teach "quick twitch", you can't coach speed and he certainly has elite speed. You also can't grow bigger hands which he already has. And he's big and tough and a willing blocker, all of which translate to the NFL completely. Would I take him at #10? No. But at #35/38, definitely.
To begin with I disagree with your assertion that route running can't be learned or improved upon in the NFL. Plenty of WRs do imo. Second, Watson has the quick twitch muscles and everything else needed in terms of athletic ability to be a stud in the NFL. His athletic score is a perfect 10. After coaching him at the Sr. Bowl and seeing up close his ability, his attitude towards the game and work ethic, the Jets should have a very good idea of whether they want him or not, and if so how much. They may not take him at 10, but if they love him and think he will be a great WR in the NFL, then imo they shouldn't risk losing him unless there are another couple of WRs they like equally well. If they feel absolutely certain that he will still be there at #35, they shouldn't take him at #10, obviously, but if they think he will or could go before the end of the 1st round, really want him, are not that high on the other WRs, and can't find a trade partner to move down, I think they should go ahead and take him at #10. They cannot afford to come out of this draft without an elite WR prospect.
Well, maybe he has "quick twitch" muscles - look at Jahan Dotson for comparison - but I didn't see it. Maybe he does and just never really had to display that aspect against the competition, but that's unlikely IMO. If he doesn't have that, it's not something that can be "coached up". Yes, he can improve his route running, and I made a point of saying that, but I'm talking about being able to leave defenders jocks around their ankles types of route running. Maybe that can be learned, but it would take a lot of hard work and would not happen overnight - certainly not in his first year or two. It would be the kind of improvement that Josh Allen displayed which is almost unheard of. Don't misunderstand, I'm not knocking him, I'm just trying to be realistic about his abilities and his ability to contribute Day 1. On that score I think he can, but he's going to have to learn how to apply skill to his athletic ability and that takes time. But since there are no "slam dunk" WRs now that Williams got hurt, you have to weigh the pros and cons of the rest. Wilson may be a better "finished product" and might be the safer pick, but even so, he's not that big, tall, fast WR I think the Jets need (JD and Saleh may disagree). Likewise Dotson, who is closer in stature to Moore who they already have. For that matter, Williams is in that size class too. Frankly, after writing and digesting all of this, maybe I've talked myself back into Treylon Burks! I have the same concerns about Burks's "quick twitch" ability and route running, but at least he performed in a big time conference against top competition. I'd say that if they're looking to take a WR at 10, I'd now probably go with Burks, but if not, then I'd take Watson with the 3/4 pick, unless they don't care about size, in which case I'd lean towards Dotson there.
Mims leads me to believe that route running is almost all technique-based. Mims had elite numbers in pretty much every speed/agility/quickness/explosiveness drill yet can't run a route to save his life and it looks like he's running in mud whenever we see footage of him practicing.
Even in a run first offence there has to be a signature game. To me when I see Watson on tape he looks/feels like a track athlete playing football. I don’t see the football IQ to get open with crisp routes and game breaking dominance. I would not gamble at 69 on him never mind 35/38. Fast rising work out warrior from division 2 is the ultimate unicorn. I just think it’s got land mine written all over it.
Nice job! I really like your draft. As you posit, however, ARE the jets really happy with their corps of linebackers???? That position has gotten little attention during free agency. Then I read this a.m. that the jets think their piss-poor run defense last year was the result of their defensive line, not the linebackers ( or safeties?)? Say what? Like you, I hope that is a smokescreen. I hope they use one of the first 4 picks (rounds 1 or 2) on a run-stuffing linebacker. THAT position I believe is one of the weakest spots on the jets right now, and for some reason getting little to no attention, free agency or mock drafts.
TBH, I've never coached football, nor played it beyond H.S. so I can't say for certain that crisp route running can't be learned, but in all my years watching I've almost never seen someone who didn't run crisp routes "learn" to do it. IDK why, if Mims had such great measurables, he hasn't shown an ability to run great routes, but that fits with my observations. If it were learnable, then why don't all receivers learn to do it? That said, you don't necessarily need to be able to snap off cuts on a dime to be successful, but it depends on the role you're being asked to play and the offense you're running. The LaFleur offense obviously requires this crisp route running, and it seems as though this is something Mims physically can't do well enough, in spite of whatever numbers he racked up at his Pro Day. I could be completely wrong, but that's just my opinion based on years of observations, take it FWIW.
If you were looking to see Watson make the kind of cuts as Dotson or Wilson, you were never going to see that. In general, taller/bigger WRs are not going to run in the same way or have the same kind of cutting ability that smaller WRs are going to have. They have to learn to vary their speeds, use their head or feints, and their bodies to get open. With Watson's speed, he can blow past DBs, and they have to worry about that and not be as aggressive or tight in their coverage. IMO Watson could contribute day one on 9 routes and other deep routes to keep the D honest and open things up underneath for the other WRs and TEs. Jameson Williams is not really in the same size class as Moore and Dotson. He may not be 6'4" but he's 6' 1 1/2", which is average or maybe slightly above average.
