I see us trading back from #4 and #10 and trading up from #35 and #38. If we’re taking a WR with our 4th pick, we’d be better off with the 5th yr option.
I would not trade back. unless a QB needy team was willing to give up a ransom. We have four premium picks, lets just get the best available player @ 4 & 10. The best available should be at positions of need the way this draft is shaping up. I think at 4 Thibs is probably the best choice assuming he is there. At ten I would take Sauce or Hamilton if by chance one of them fell, if not go for the best available receiver. If by chance we did get Sauce or Hamilton then we could consider bundling the two seconds if necessary get a receiver later in round 1.
DB is not more important than WR. If the Jets like one ot the WRs and think he deserves to be taken that high, they should take a WR at #10. If not, hopefully they can trade down. If they can't find a partner to trade down with, only then should they take Sauce. Hamilton shouldn't even be under consideration. I understand why you wouldn't want to trade down. I wouldn't want to miss out on a player they covet trying to get greedy, but if they think they can trade down add another 2nd or 3rd this year, and have several players that they have a pretty equal rating on them that they would take after trading, down, I think they should do it. Adding 4 in the top 40 is excellent, but being able to add 5 in the top 40 is even better.
I'm also coming to the conclusion that it may not be a good idea to trade down. I agree that we need top of the line players at two positions, edge and WR. If KT is there at 4, the Jets have to take him. But hell I'd even pick JJ at 4 because I'm convinced he'll be a high ceiling/high floor player at the crucial position of edge. I'm not that impressed with Walker, and Hutchinson will clearly go in the top two, but KT and/or JJ will be there for us at 4. Similarly, at 10 I think we need a dominating receiver who will turn into a #1 target by his second season. I think that Wilson is the best receiver in this draft, and I think Atlanta takes him. If they don't, the Jets will have their choice of any receiver in the draft. If the Jets do their homework, they can determine which of the receivers will be a stud who fits their system, and they should go ahead and draft the available stud WR (be it Wilson, Burks, Williams, or whoever) at 10, BPA (i.e., Hamilton, Gardner, etc.) be damned!
I'm hoping the Jets can trade down from #10, but if not and they wind up with the #3 Edge and the WR they like best, that's fine. I want two topnotch players and I think we could still get two even with a trade down from #10 into the early-to-mid teens. Atlanta needs a WR who can play day 1. They also need a QB. I could see them going either way. If they take a WR, I think they may take Garrett Wilson. I think that he is the most pro-ready WR in the draft. They could take Williams, but that would be risky, as he could suffer a setback in his rehab, or might not be ready to play until a month or two into the season. So the Jets could trade down and still get Williams, or if the rumors are true that they love Burks, they could take him in the teens, or they could take Watson there if they love him. I would be very happy with any one of Wilson, Burks, Williams or Watson at WR for the Jets. I don't want London at all.
I want no part of London either. I heard one commentator say that London reminded him of Davante Adams. I went back and looked at film of Adams at Fresno State flying past DB's for deep passes, and he looked nothing like London. London at USC looks more like Laquon Treadwell at Mississippi than Adams at Fresno. Regarding trading down, it's hard to argue with your logic. I guess I'm just still feeling burned by the years and years of SOJ on draft day. I don't know how many times they've passed on superior players, sometimes with the expectation that the same or similar player will be available later. Mims is only the latest example. That's why I just want to say screw it, take the best players available at the top of the draft when you can and quit fooling around with trading down. Save trading down for the lower rounds.
I hear you, and I understand. There's definitely bad history there. The thing is, one can just as easily make a mistake forcing the pick of a player at a certain point just because you fear making a mistake trading down. For instance, many would say that if Sauce is there at #4, the Jets have to take him. He's definitely a great prospect and would probably make our secondary better, perhaps a lot better. That's the positive side of things. On the negative side of things, he may not be that big of an upgrade over Reed or Hall. Even if he is, there is a cost for taking him. By taking him at #4, we could either miss the Edge we wanted or the WR we wanted. IMO CB is not really a need. Taking Gardner would be a luxury. We have HUGE needs at Edge and WR, and should come out of the 1st round with one of the top 3 Edges and the top WR in the draft in the opinion of the Jets Scouting Dept, CS and JD. If we take Gardner, that doesn't happen. We miss on one or the other. That miss could very easily lead the Jets to make another big mistake in trading up from the 2nd round to take the best Edge/WR left in the 1st round who could wind up being the 4th or 5th best at his position rather than the best or 3rd best. In turn, that would probably cause the Jets to not be able to draft at least two of the following positions: LB, DT S, RB, TE, and 2nd WR. So what looked like a positive, getting a great CB prospect, actually winds up hurting the team. More than likely, one CB, no matter how great, is not going to make up for losing out on a couple of other good players at positions of need, and probably getting a lesser player, perhaps much lesser, at either the key position of Edge or WR. Actually, most of the time, I think it's a complete waste of time trading down in the lower rounds. The talent pool is greatly thinned out, and one just winds up getting more junk. In the lower rounds, it is better to stay put or trade up for targeted players imo.
sure if we played man but we don't really. he'll cover the same amount of ground as reed or hall in our system. also there has been like 2 Cbs who've done that in the past 20 years the idea of getting a lockdown CB doesn't really exist anymore.
Here is an uplifting positive article about Thibs. https://jetsxfactor.com/2022/03/28/kayvon-thibodeaux-work-ethic/
Assuming the FO agrees on KTs character my worst fear is if KT is gone. While I love Gardner, Ekonowu and Hamilton I find them luxuries as they do not uograde the team as much as a quality edge and wr would. My fear is after KT all the edge prospects have question marks. Some people love Johnson others hate his film, same for Walker. The safest edge after KT might be Karlaftis. At 10 we should be able to get Wilson or Jameson. The 4 pick really worries me if KT is not there. To get decent value IMO we need to trade down to the 15 to 20 spot. Which could be really hard to do. Hopefully the rumours of interest in QBs is real.
Value is important, but imo getting the right players/the ones they want is more important. If they really like a player, but can't trade down, I hope that they will just go ahead and take that player and not worry about value. If they're right about that player, he will be a good value. If they aren't right, he would't be a good value even at a lower pick.
Revis is also one of the best CBs of all-time, expecting someone like Sauce to be Revis is unfair to Sauce.
The Jets play a TON of man coverage on 3rd down. They frequently go into a Cover 1 look to send an extra rusher -- Now whether that was because of a lack of pressure from the edge or because they wanted to keep things simple for young CBs is up for debate, I think it was a little bit of both. With that being said, I don't think CB would be a good pick at 4 solely because Saleh's system NEEDS the front four to get home. Adding Lawson and a top edge rusher like KT or JJ to this front would really unlock it I think. They'd be able to kick JFM back into a 3T, which is where he belongs. Lawson + JFM + Quinnen + KT or JJ would be a nasty front. Agreed on your CB take though -- Lockdown CBs don't exist, the closest thing we have to that in the NFL is Ramsey.
Totally agree with this. Value is important but people get too hung up on not overpaying even by a tiny bit. If we really think about it it doesn't make much sense that a guy can be a value at #10 but out of the question at #4.
it was due to lacking a pass rush with the front 4. lawson will be back, we added martin, and likely draft an edge at 4.
It depends on what the FO thinks but after KT all the edge rushers have flaws and depending on who you listen too it can be argued none should be taken in the top 15. While the edge rushers have strong depth the argument can be made they lack blue chip players outside of KT and AH. Which is why I think Karlaftis might be the safest of the 2nd tier edge rushers. I would put out the idea that it is much better to trade back to 15 and take an edge rusher than reach for a flawed 2nd tier guy at 4. But, it comes down to what the FO thinks.
I agree that trading back, getting an extra pick or picks is preferable to "reaching," but the problem with the idea of trading back is that it takes a trade partner. If no one wants to trade up, one can be left with the choice of either getting a player or position or not. That's why the idea of taking a CB in round 1 is absurd. It could cause us to miss out completely on the top WRs or Edges. Since we are in desperate need of a WR, that could cause another mistake in trading up for the best WR who is left. The Jets shouldn't even be considering taking Sauce or McDuffie or Stingley. WR and Edge are much bigger needs. So are S and DT, and probably LB. RB is a bigger need, but thankfully we can get a RB in the 4th or 5th round. Edit: Unless they have concerns about Becton either from a health perspective or play/scheme fit perspective, they shouldn't even consider taking an OT in the 1st round. They still have cap space they can use to sign a FA. There has to be an OT still out there in FA who is better than Edoga or McDermott. Eric Fisher and Riley Reiff are still out there at LT and Darrl Williams and several others are out there at RT. They may be holding out for a starting job in case there is an injury to someone's starting LT, but imo JD ought to contact their agent and offer a backup deal with incentives if they wind up having to play more than 2-3 games.
Nice post. Trading back would be ideal but I imagine it will be difficult to find a partner. I also agree on your thoughts on taking a corner. Unless the FO falls in love with some 2nd round edge or WRs it seems that we are almost locked into drafting a wr and edge in round 1. But again we know so little and we still have 30 days to go. Edit: The Becton injury news might put a tackle back in play at pick 4.
