I think the Jets will definitely be running the ball more. They said last year that they wanted to, but with the problems on the OL early and at RG until they signed LDT, they couldn't, plus Carter got injured.
Reread the original post: You're looking at rushing attempts, or how many total times an offense ran the ball over the course of a season. This stat is skewed because good offenses run more plays over the course of a season, so they'll naturally have a higher number of rushing attempts. That does not mean that those offenses run the ball on any given play more often than other teams. The teams you listed all pass the ball on a higher % of plays than they run the ball, yet you're trying to argue they're "run-first" teams because they have more total rushing attempts than others. 60% of the Bills' offensive plays were passing plays. 54% for the Patriots. 59% for the Bengals. 62% for the Chiefs. 60% for the Dolphins. As for the Jets - we ran the ball so infrequently because we had a horrendous defense and had to constantly pass to try to catch up. We passed a lot because we were bad, we weren't bad because we passed a lot. Teams pass the ball on a high % of plays for one of two reasons: Because they're good at passing, and all else equal it's better to pass than to run. or Because they're a bad team and are playing from behind a lot. Note that bad teams often pass a lot but are bad at passing. They pass out of necessity due to playing from behind. Look at it this way - Let's say hypothetically one offense ran 1,000 plays over the course of a season and ran the ball on 400 of those plays. They have 400 rushing attempts and ran the ball on 40% of their total plays. Another offense ran 800 plays over the course of a season and ran the ball on 350 of those plays. They have 350 rushing attempts and ran the ball on 44% of their total plays. You're trying to argue that the first team ran the ball more often than the second team despite running the ball on a lower % of their total offensive plays. ____ In your subsequent post, this one: You're saying teams that don't run the ball a lot are bad teams. That's faulty causation though. The reason these teams don't run a lot is because they're bad teams and are playing from behind a lot, thus they are forced to pass to try to catch up. They aren't good at passing but they have no other choice because they're usually playing from behind.
On the last paragraph I disagree. The numbers clearly state that teams that run the ball have better chance of winning. There is no proof in the numbers that bad teams are passing more because they are behind. That maybe the reason they are behind. Teams like the browns, colts, ravens, titans are clearly run first teams. Getting back to my point. I do think it is a pass first league but it has been that way for a long time. As defenses change to stop the pass the run becomes more effective. Running the ball is usually the factor in winning in the postseason and winning in the back half of the season in bad weather cities.
Except we don't have a 6th round pick, so if we want them, we'll have to take them in the 5th or trade down
With regards to the bold, what are you talking about? It's common sense and we see it every game. When a team is behind by 2 scores or more or even one score, they usually start throwing the ball more and abandoning their rushing attack. That happens every Sunday and has been for years. I'm sure that there is proof in the numbers as well as with the eyes. I agree with everything else you say in this post, but not the bold.
The only thing you are missing is 3rd down percentage. If your passing offense can't pick up a 3rd down then you have to punt and you are running less plays, naturally, as a 1st down gives you 3 more new plays. The Jets were 27th in 3rd down conversions in 2021 -- That's why completion percentage is important, btw. It helps the running game and the defense, everything. The goal is to stay on the field with the ball, each incomplete pass gets you one step closer to having to give the ball back. People dismiss completion percentage though in recent years
Is that the real reason they are passing more or are they behind because they are not running enough? I am shocked by a well-thought-out and logical post! Sorry, I could not help myself but a good post!
That's not accurate though. Teams with more rushing attempts are generally teams with better offenses, which do tend to be the good teams. Those teams still usually pass more often than they run though on a play by play basis. The top 5 teams by passing YPG: Bucs Chiefs Chargers Cowboys Rams Top 5 by running YPG: Eagles Colts Ravens Browns Titans It's pretty clear that in general it's more important to be good at passing than running. The first group of teams is a way better group of teams. Regarding running usually being the factor in the postseason, I don't think that's the case either. The recent past Super Bowl champions have been the Rams, Bucs, Chiefs, Patriots, Eagles, Patriots, Broncos. Almost all of those were good passing teams. The only one that was really run dominant in the Super Bowl was the Patriots vs. the Rams. I do agree that as defenses change to stop the pass the run will become more effective. Bill Belichick has been an expert at getting ahead of that ebb and flow. I don't think passing will ever truly take a backseat to running though, for the same reason passing will never go out of style in favor of dribbling more in basketball. It's just quicker to throw a ball between two points than to carry it so it's inherently harder to defend.
Yes, it's the reason that teams who are behind pass more. We see teams abandoning the run all the time, even when it's been working, simply because they panic and start throwing the ball more. Running the ball eats up the clock. If it's early in games, then teams don't have to pass more unless their rushing attack just isn't working, but most do anyway. If it's late in games and teams are behind a TD or more, then they have to pass, they have no choice. If they try to keep running the ball, unless they're getting huge chunk plays, time will run out on them and they will lose. Is your last sentence sarcasm, or are you saying that my posts normally aren't logical or well-thought-out, or were you referring to some others' posts? Sorry, but I really can't tell, as I have several of the people with whom you were debating this issue on ignore.
I think it is interesting that only 2 of the 10 offenses you have listed in either category have what I would describe as a running QB. (Eagles/Ravens). I personally would've thought a running QB would boost both rushing attempts and yards per game
2020 Tampa post season Fornette was the leading rusher with 300 yards. 2021 Akers and Mixon were the leading rushers in the playoffs but admittingly their yd per game was weak, but they did have the most attempts with 67. As far as wins the best passing teams as you have listed won 12 more regular-season games. There are a lot more factors that go into winning so running and passing stats alone do not tell the full story.
