Edit*- if you dig into the numbers a little more running the ball has not changed that much and is still key to winning games. Most of the teams wit the least amount of attempts are not winning a lot of games.
We are 1 injury away at every position except maybe CB. How would our OL look if Fant goes down or Tomlinson? Would you be happy at S if Whitehead goes down? Do you like our RBs if Carter goes down? How do our LBs look without Mosley? we need a 1a RB and we need a starting LB. We need an EDGE rusher. Everything else needs depth, you don’t draft for depth in the 1st round.
Drafting London or Wilson in the first is not a depth move. Both of them have star potential IMO. You draft one of them to be your locked and loaded WR1 for a decade. We haven't had one of those in... 20 years? Take Marshall's one year away and we haven't had a consistent top WR since Coles.
Imo we drafted our #1 WR for the decade last year. You’ve already made it clear you don’t think we’ll be using more 2 TE sets. Idt Conklin signed here to be a backup. We don’t need to debate speculation, we can wait until the season starts and see what happens.
The Jets were 28th in number of plays in general. You go 3 and out and you aren't going to be able to rack up rushing attempts. The Jets were also always behind, when you get a lead you can run the ball, when you are behind you can't. Improve the defense so you aren't always behind. Maybe get a QB that can complete a 3rd down pass, and the rushing attempts would bounce way up on their own
We do need to run the ball more, but that's predicated on a good passing attack so that the defense can't just stack the LOS. I think Saleh and LaFleur want to go in this direction, but when you don't have any decent TEs, or any WRs who can take the top off, running the ball is much harder.
Is this stat not extremely skewed towards good offenses, which have longer drives in general which contribute to more rushing attempts? I would think % of plays being rushes vs. passes would be a better metric. 60% of the Bills' offensive plays were passing plays. 54% for the Patriots. 59% for the Bengals. 62% for the Chiefs. 60% for the Dolphins. For what it's worth, we passed it pretty often too, we were just awful at it. There is zero question it's a passing league. Top 5 teams by passing YPG last year: Bucs Chiefs Chargers Cowboys Rams Top 5 by rushing YPG last year: Eagles Colts Ravens Browns Titans Which group contains the better teams? Sorry but that original post is a classic misinterpretation of stats.
We passed the ball on 63% of our offensive plays in 2021. You and cval are misinterpreting # of rushing attempts vs. percentage of rushing attempts. Good offenses run a lot more plays over the course of a season because they stay on the field. That means they often have more rushing attempts. Good offenses are also running out the clock via running at the end of games more often than bad offenses. That doesn't mean they rush the ball at a higher rate (%) than passing.
The only number I added to the mix was #11 in yards per carry. Since you brought it up, where do we rank in terms of % of rushing attempts?
It was a quick glance and I do not have time to review but I also think you are mispresenting the stats. I bet there is not a huge difference in percentage over the last 10-20 years. The teams that have the most balanced attacks seem to win the most games. The rules may favor scoring as defenses get smaller it opens up the running game. With the changing rules just counting pass plays in misleading especially with the Bills where their QB runs even on pass plays. Also factor in the weather the run games get more important. Even though I agree it is still a passing league it is not as skewed as your making it.
not that we won't use more, but that we won't use more of it then 3WR sets. i wouldn't be surprised if we ran 25-30% 12 personnel. but we'll also run about 60% 11 personnel. that covers 86-90% packages and the other 10-15% would be packages for goaline/short yardage and and other misc packages
There will be plenty of good RB's in and around R4 and 5 James Cook, could he be as good as his brother? He looked impressive at the combine, with nice hands and smooth action. Tyler Allgeier, an interesting complement to MC1, more of a bruiser type. ZaQuandre White, is a shifty type, needs to work on his catching, not overused in college football like a lot of backs. Rachaad White, is another smooth and shifty runner with good hands. could easily add another 4 or 5. JD should have no trouble finding a promising RB in the draft if he chooses to do so.
I am not misrepresenting them. Your post looked at good offenses who run a lot of plays because they're good offenses and used their raw number of rushing attempts as evidence that the NFL is a rushing league. All the teams you listed as "run-first teams" passed the ball a higher % of the time than they ran. They only had more raw rushing attempts because their offenses ran more plays than other teams because they stayed on the field due to passing it so effectively. They also ran out the clock via running the ball late in games more often than other teams because their passing offenses led to them holding large leads often. You liked cval's post claiming teams with a higher number of rushing attempts are run-first teams. All of those teams pass the ball more often than they run. Raw rushing attempts=/=percentage likelihood to run on any given offensive play, for the reasons stated above in this post. If you meant "literally, they usually run before they pass" not "they run more often than they pass overall" then I'd point to this: Percentage of first downs where their offense passed the ball: Bills - 58% Dolphins - 63% Patriots - 52% Bengals - 63%
Teams that pass the ball at a high percentage are usually doing so either because they're very good at passing or because they're playing from behind a lot. Looking at the top 10 teams by passing % shows us this: Bucs Steelers Jets Raiders Chargers Chiefs Jaguars Falcons Giants Dolphins Pretty weird mix of elite teams and horrible teams right? Now the top 10 teams in passing YPG: Bucs Chiefs Chargers Cowboys Rams Raiders Bills Bengals Packers Vikings Almost every single one is a very good team. You say most of the teams with the least amount of rushing attempts aren't good teams, but that's because they play from behind more than most other teams and must pass to try to catch up. They aren't bad teams because they pass frequently, they pass frequently because they're bad teams. Again, important to distinguish between rushing attempts which are influenced by the total number of plays your offense runs (good offenses run more plays because they don't have to punt) and rushing percentage which is what % of their overall offensive plays are rushes.
How does that compare to rushing? I never said passing was not important. From the list Chargers did not make the playoffs, Raiders just barely made it, Cowboys got bounced early , Viking did not make the playoffs. When Tampa went to the Suberbowl it was on the back of Fornette in the playoffs. KC got bounced because they passed to much. I think the conclusion is pretty clear that having a strong run game can be the X factor that makes a good team a very good team.
