I would take Hamilton under that scenario. He's the best S prospect in a few years and there's good evidence that S is a lot more of a premium position than most people think. I know we have a bad taste in our mouths from Adams but Hamilton has good ball skills and is good in coverage unlike Adams. I would also say let's not forget that Adams is a great player and had a hugely positive impact on our defense. He's a 3X all-pro during his 4 year career. We absolutely won the trade with the Seahawks but it's also no coincidence our defense fell off a cliff the year after we traded Adams. We went from the 16th ranked defense to 26th the year after we traded him. Regardless of our thoughts on safeties though I still think it'd be nuts to take a guy at #4 overall who isn't even the consensus best prospect at his position this year. Has that ever happened before? WR's taken in the top 5 are the Megatron, Ja'Marr Chase-types almost exclusively. I think our #10 pick is where we should take a WR.
The NFL itself doesn't value the safety position. The average salary for NFL safeties is 2.72M, which is ahead of TE (2.57M), LB (2.53), RB (2.3), and ST like long snapper, FB, K, and P. The franchise tag number also supports this. It's 8/11 on franchise tag value, coming in at 13.54M, which is only more than TE, RB, and ST. Hamilton is a fantastic player and anyone comping him to Adams has no idea what they're talking about. If the Jets didn't have so many holes, I'd be all over taking him at 4. Hamilton is the kind of player I'd take to finish a defense, not build a defense around. The Jets are going to be able to land one of Ekwonu, Neal, Hutch, or KT. Edit: Below are the sources I used. https://overthecap.com/franchise-transition-and-rfa-tenders/ https://overthecap.com/positional-value-in-the-nfl/
NFL teams are behind the trend all the time. These salary numbers don't mean much to me because of that. About a third of the teams in the league are longtime losers who can never consistently figure it out. A lot of teams have spent the last 10 years trying to build teams that worked in the 10 years prior to that, the Jets being one of them (by trying to win with a running game and defense.) Passing well and defending the pass well are by far the most important things you need to do well in the current NFL. NFL teams also pay RB's more than TE's, C's more than WR's, ILB's more than CB's, and K's more than TE's. All absurd. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/ The contract numbers you cited indicate that QB is less than 2X more valuable than LT, that's just patently ridiculous and obviously not true. Most attempts at quantifying WAR for different positions in the NFL have S as one of the top 3-5 most important positions in the game. I can get behind taking KT over Hamilton if he's there but what's the rationale for taking Neal or Ekwonu? Assuming Fant gets extended, which I think he will, we'd be spending #4 overall on an insurance policy for Becton or a G if Becton gets his act together. There are way too many contingencies for that to be a good move. Hamilton would probably instantly be our best player on defense at a very important position.
We picked a bad one, a one that was meant to be a 1st round selection and we waited and traded back and still got him, JD wanted Mims supposedly, so who did we pass on if JD wanted Mims? We let a lot of good players go by, there is no doubt about that but what can you do? When I say lower rounds I mean late second early third possibly. Claypool went two before Mims, we would have been happy with him, Davis @128, Mooney @173 Osbourne @176 even People-jones @187. Then just to show how much of a crapshoot it all is the top WR in that draft was Ruggs @12 career total to date 921 yards 4 tds UDFA Callaway 911 yards 6 TD's Hindsight is a great way to draft lol BTW I'm not having a go at you, I don't want you to think that anyway lol Let's hope we just pick some probowl caliber players for a damned change
Could've taken Lamb at 11. That means no OT, Sam missing him when he has time, and Gase finding a way to give a washed up WR more touches.
There's only 5 OTs in the NFL that make 20M a year (I'm including two players than make 19.5 or so). Half of the starting QBs in the NFL make 20M or more. I wasn't using the positional value numbers there because it didn't really make sense to me either, was only using it for the average salary for players at each position group. The league obviously values QBs more than OT, which is shown in the AAV I just said. Safety is important, but using premium assets to address the position isn't the way to solve it. Teams need serviceable play from those guys; i.e., don't get burnt deep. The Jets have glaring holes at OG, edge, CB, and WR, but they're going to use a 4th overall pick on a safety? Doesn't really sit well with me. Ekwonu is a perfect scheme fit and can fit right in at guard. Neal can play both tackle spots and both guard spots. Taking one of those guys gives the Jets the flexibility to let Fant walk if they don't want to pay him a lot of money or if he reverts back to previous form. Remember, Fant just had a career year and his run blocking leaves a lot to be desired, so let's see if he does it again. FWIW, I think Hamilton goes 3rd overall to Houston anyways.
Great points. Ekwonu or Neal would be great selections. Picking at 4 they are guaranteed one of the top 2 pass rushers or one of the top 2 OLmen. Its a great spot to be in, you can't go wrong with any of those 4 players. Just dont screw it up by taking a DB there or reaching for a WR
I’m not a fan of hyperbole but there’s a 0% chance we take a WR at 4 when there’s a 90% chance the guy will be there at 10.
All 4 of those players are blue-chip prospects, as is Hamilton, but positional value to me puts OL and edge as priority. The versatility of Neal is ridiculous. 15 games at LT, 13 at LG, and 12 at RT.
I dunno, the combine & pro days always change things 1 great 40 yard dash in gym shorts and a WR could go rocketing up the draft boards
I don’t disagree. I’m just saying Jets GMs, and Joe Douglas, have fallen in the trap before of overvaluing workouts
With who? Becton and Mims? Idk their tape is good too. Saleh isn’t even going to the combine. Tape > all
In Saleh's presser this week, he was asked whether he would ever consider drafting a safety in the first round. His response was basically, "I wouldn't say never, but..." He explained that a safety would have to be a unicorn for him to want to draft one in the first round. Not just in the top ten, but in the first round. Saleh's body language coupled with the clear sentiment that he doesn't generally see the safety position as warranting 1st round investments means that there is very little chance we take Hamilton in the first. I agree with that view, but regardless of whether I agree with it, I don't think it's going to happen.
Eh, can’t believe anything anyone says this time of year. There were reports literally last week saying they loved Hamilton.
That wasn't the point of my comment. The report that the Jets "love" Kyle Hamilton is meaningless because every team loves him. Every single team in the NFL would love to have a Kyle Hamilton on their team.
