https://jetsxfactor.com/2022/02/06/first-round-nfl-draft-prospects-alarming-stats/ Interesting. It may not mean anything, but it could be significant.
Good info! Of course it's just one person's opinion, but still it's an informed person and certainly something to consider.
What do you think of the idea of drafting 2 Edge guys? If there are two of the top Edge available at 4 and 10 and maybe 36, I would do it. Wasn't it Ernie Accorsi who said you can never have enough pass rushers? As I pointed out in another thread, even the top drafted edge rushers are not likely to crack 10 sacks a season in their first 2 years. Having two good edge rushers might put enough pressure on opposing O-lines that they would have a hard time countering it. If you just draft one and hope he turns out to be TJ Watt, you're setting yourself up for disappointment IMO.
I don't like it. While they desperately need to find a stud Edge after all these years, drafting two unproven college players won't automatically solve that problem or even increase the odds of getting one much. Second, they need to fill other big holes - even if they got lucky and both Edges worked out it would still leave them with at least one major hole possibly not filled. Third, by your words you note that it often takes 2 or 3 years for an Edge to become a stud, so we would be using two premium picks on players who wouldn't pay a dividend commensurate with the investment this year and maybe even next. Fourth, they expect Carl Lawson to return and he still has a lot of untapped potential so investing two high picks on that position again is overkill. In fact, because they expect Lawson to return and be in shape, I don't see them using the #4 on an Edge unless it's a guy they believe will become a superstar, which is why I think that Johnson will the Edge they target - high ceiling, but if he doesn't become a superstar, as long as Lawson plays to his former level, they'll be in pretty good shape.
Carl Lawson is averaging 5 sacks a season. That's not going to get it done. There's nothing more critical in today's defensive game than getting pressure on the QB. It might not work out, but it's a draft with a high number of good edge prospects and the Jets are in a position to take a few, and that opportunity may not come again soon. All other positions pale in importance to QB and pass rusher and we already have a QB.
You're right 5 sacks won't get it done, but Lawson was projected to get much more until he got hurt, and he looked like he was capable. And yes, Edge is arguably - along with WR - THE most premium position behind QB. So for me what this boils down to is: If one of the two stud Edges fall to us at #4 you take him without question. But, if one of them aren't there at #4 - and assuming you don't trade back - you need to pick a player who has value commensurate with a #4 pick. I don't think any of the WRs this year fit that value from what I've seen so far, but maybe I'll change my mind after reviewing more film, and the Combine, etc. So I see Douglas taking Neal or Hamilton (although I don't like taking a S this high). That means the #10 pick would be the next place to get an Edge, but are any Edges available "can't miss superstars"? I think the answer is no. So at that point JD has to decide: I need a #1 type WR and a stud Edge. Is anyone available at this point in either of these positions that fills that need without reaching or overdrafting? I think in the case of WR the answer is Yes; but for Edge the answer is No. To address your point about taking a few Edge prospects, the really good ones, the ones that would be most likely to make an impact this year or next would require using several of our top picks, but beyond KT and Hutch, none are certain to even be starters and every-down players, so using those picks on such players isn't a wise investment IMO.
Yes, Lawson only averaged 5 sacks per season, but take a look at how many pressures and QB hits he averaged per season. Those stats can be just as important as sacks. A sack ends a down, and if it's a strip sack (which doesn't happen all that often), can result in a turnover. Pressures and QB hits can cause the QB to rush his throws, which affects timing and accuracy and can lead to incompletions or interceptions, which I believe happen more frequently than strip sacks, but I don't have the numbers in front of me. The reason Lawson only averaged 5 sacks per season are two fold. One, the Bengals didn't make it a priority with their scheme, and two there was no one else on the DL contributing consistent pressure, so Lawson was often double-teamed. If he's healthy this season, I think you will see him get more, perhaps a lot more sacks than 5, or he will enable others to get sacks.
I agree with all of this. IMO the drop off from Hutchinson and KT to the next tier of Edges is less than the drop off from Wilson and Burks to the next tier of WRs, so the pick at #10 should be WR if at all possible. In addition, as I've already said many times before, if Zach doesn't develop, it won't matter how good the D is or isn't, so if there's any doubt or a tie, the tie should probably go to the WR position. The only exception to that would be if the Jets view the Edge there at #10 to be a perfect scheme fit and the WR that they have rated there is not an ideal scheme fit and the Jets think that a WR they're really high on will be there at #35
I believe we have the 5th or 6th most money invested in our defensive line in the league. Simply from an asset management standpoint, it’s not a smart investment. The JFM signing looks pretty stupid right about now. And Rankins needs to be cut because he can be cut.
Why is the signing stupid? JFM is a good player, who can go inside where he is most effective when we have (hopefully) good edge players with Lawson and a perspective rookie.
I’m on board with signing a proven vet for 2 years and drafting one in the 1st or 2nd. You can never have too many edge rushers and adding a top twilight vet would help the development of whoever we get.
I think if you're going to bring in a vet DE, it should be about production, not about mentoring. Any vet DE with good numbers is not likely to be unsigned or released by their teams.
I mean a much older and probably overpriced vet like C. Jones or C. Campbell. Obviously productive but also someone to be looked up to.* I wouldn’t be opposed to trading a 3rd or 4th for D. Hunter especially if JD recoups the pick with some DDay trades. Edit: *kinda like we did with V. Curry last year.
You can argue the contract he got, signing JFM wasn't a stupid move though. IMO It Is concerning the drop off from his play after signing that contract though. Despite that though, this past year was still his most productive year for the team and he seems to get better every year.
Edge at 4 and 10 would be crazy, but you could talk me into doubling up with a mid-to-late 2nd or 3rd. As for the talk about JFM's contract, it's a classic example of perception vs. reality with NFL contracts. The reality is that he got half the fully guaranteed money Lawson did so if he struggles the way he did at the end of last season, you can get out of it after this year with only a $1.2 million dead money hit for 2023.
I’m shocked at how many jets fans overvalue a guy who’s never had more than like 6 sacks in a season and is coming off a torn Achilles. Draft one of these top edge rushers if they’re there. They’re almost as difficult to find as qbs and you usually have to be at the top of the draft to get them.
Few, if any, would pass on Hutchinson or Thibideaux at 4. The question is how much of a drop off there is after those two and who else, if anyone, is truly a top-level edge rusher after those 2.
At least in terms of talent and potential, I may be mistaken, but I don't think the dropoff after Hutchinson and KT is all that big. I think the dropoff in talent is much bigger at other positions like WR and CB.
It seems to me there are 3-4 WR's who are all roughly of similar caliber. Same with CB's. I think the dropoff from Hutch/Thib to the 3rd best edge rusher is much larger. Hutch and Thib are both guys who are or were arguable #1 overall picks.
I wasn't speaking of exact numbers, but rather from Tier 1 to Tier 2. Still, maybe you're correct. That said, Johnson and Karlaftis are thought by many to be close to KT, and I don't think that Ebiketie, Ojabo, Cam Thomas, and Enagbare are far behind that in terms of talent and potential, not production. At WR there is Wilson, Burks and London and then there's a pretty big dropoff. Williams would have been in that top tier if not for his injury. At CB there's Gardner, Stingley, and maybe Kaiir Elam. After that it drops off pretty steeply.
