The edge guy to draft..

I get it if you don’t like Thibodeaux but you’ve posted several times about Oregon defensive ends. They’ve produced one bad high draft pick (Dion Jordan) and two very good high draft picks (DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead) along the defensive line.

So you should probably remove that from your list of reasons why you don’t like Thibodeaux.

 

So your saying the Jets should consider drafting Jermaine Johnson at #4 overall over Thibodeaux, Ikey, or Neal?

Who knows... maybe you'll end up being spot on but he seems to be ranked in the 30-50 range on the big boards. At that range he could be relatively safely gotten with one of their 2nd round picks.

 

felt the same way about Jadeveon CLowney he turnede a good player... but as a #1 a disappointment

 

Johnson has looked great at the Senior Bowl practices but I don't know much about him otherwise. My gut says taking him at 10 would be a reach though. I'm all for it if we trade out of #4 and can snag him in the later part of the first round though.

I think 10 is the pick for a WR. We wouldn't be reaching but would still have our pick of one of the top 1-2 guys.

 

The thing about the top 10 is that it is obvious who should go on that caliber pick.

If it isn't then trading down is the only sound move.

Why?

Because top 10 busts really kill a team and if it isn't obvious that somebody should go on one of those high picks you really shouldn't take them. The upside on a top 10 pick is limited and the downside is limitless.

 

At 10, or following a little trade down, the position choices the Jets will have will probably be WR, Edge, OL, and LB. This is a extremely good and deep class at Edge. Depending upon the ranking of the prospects, I'm not taking Johnson or any other Edge at that point over Burks. IMO Burks is the best WR for the Jets, that is a critical need for Zach, and I think he could take our offense to a whole other level with his height, hands, versatility and explosiveness. There are a number of excellent Edge prospects who could be available at #35, and WR is more important to Zach and the offense than LB, so it is more important to the team. If neither Hutchinson or KT are available at #4, that means, the Jets most likely took one of Ekwonu/Neal, so there is not a need to take another OL at #10.

 

This would all be true if the Jets analyze Burks as the best WR for the Jets that will take Zach and the offense to the next level and all of that. Once they get their hands on him. Obviously it will be interesting to see what they do with these top picks. At this point I can see many many different ways they could go.

It will be interesting to see what conclusions they draw. I watch some of these analysis where they don't even seem to remotely consider Burks as one of the top WR in this draft. Let alone THE guy the Jets should be targeting. For the record at this point I'm with you. If I had to pick one WR at this moment he'd be the guy for sure.

 

I've seen some of those same analysis videos/scouting reports, and I find it odd. I've seen nothing negative written about Burks at all. In one of the analysis videos I watched of him Matt Waldman and a guy that used to work for thedraftnetwork pointed out that he needs to refine his route running, but then pointed out that they think he has the ability and football IQ to do that as he shows other refinements in his routes. They (Waldman and his guest) also mention that he doesn't always high point the ball with his hands above his shoulders/head and sometimes tries to basket catch balls with his hands down around his waist/midsection, but then they showed other catches where he does high point the ball with his hands right, and they pointed out that he dropped fewer passes than most of the other top rated WRs in the nation.

I think the reason he isn't rated as the best WR or one of the top 2-3 is because he's so versatile, because he didn't line up as the #1 WR outside, but lined up in the slot, lined up in the backfield, took direct snaps, ran the ball, etc. A lot of people in the NFL and who cover the NFL, and even fans suffer from group think. If someone doesn't have prototypical size or speed, or doesn't fit some standard profile, then they discredit that player. They (Waldman and his guest) said that he's not a gadget player, but I think others look at him in that way and that causes them to discredit him. They don't stop and think that he has the size, speed, hands and ability to be a topflight true #1 WR. I think it was that video or another video or article that said, the thing is that while he's working on those other things that he needs to to become a true #1 WR, he could give the Jets all the things that Deebo Samuel does for the Niners starting in his rookie season. The other thing is that Burks accounted for a huge amount of Arkansas' offense. They had a pretty good RB and their QB can run the ball, but in the SEC, the best football conference in college, he not only succeeded, but he thrived. He had a huge game against Alabama. He didn't against Georgia, and that may be working against him as well. The thing is about that game is that he had missed the week or two before that with an injury, wasn't 100% and I don't think had practiced. They ignore those things, however, and just look at stats.

We could be wrong about Burks, but I don't think we will be, unless there is something amiss about him that we just don't know like a character issue, or that he doesn't love the game or have a desire to be the best he can or something. I think all those doubters and all those who prefer Wilson, are going to wind up wishing that we had taken Burks (if we don't) or be glad that we did if we do take him. At a minimum, I think he will give us everything that Deebo Samuel gives to the Niners. If he wants to be one of the best and the Jets work with him to develop him into a prototypical #1 WR, I think he could very well become a star and join the ranks of Chase, Lamb, Adams, Jefferson, Thielen, Hill, and the other top WRs in the NFL.

 

It's been real odd to see the evaluation of Burks given the raw talent and Deebo + AJ Brown's success. Everything on tape says top flight first round WR but there's a weird infatuation with the Garrett Wilson types who are "refined". Refined almost always means high floor, low ceiling (see Jerry Jeudy). He looks like a 2, same with his teammate, Olave. Burks is the only receiver I'm seeing with #1 ability (other than some boom or bust guys who won't go until much later).

 

You’re buying too much into the refined thing with Wilson. What makes him an elite prospect is his quickness and ability to separate. The plus route running is just a bonus. Wilson also has incredible balance.

I like Burks a lot because I think he adds the size that this group needs and doesn’t sacrifice speed.

 

I should add that I really like Wilson, I just don't think he'll be a true #1 in the NFL. He'll probably be a good player, but I think the ceiling is a high end #2. The ability to separate is huge obviously, but you pretty much never see these types able to dominate on their own like a Julio Jones, DK Metcalf, Nuk Hopkins or Devante Adams can. Maybe Antonio Brown?

Wouldn't be the first time I'm wrong but we'll see.

 

What “types” are you referring to?
Jones, Hopkins, and Adams were all praised for their route running and separation coming out of college.

 

There's a pretty obvious common denominator between those 3 that Wilson does not possess. I don't think I need to spell it out. Let's just say he's not open unless he's OPEN.

 

I think you do need to spell it out…

It seems like you might be referring to the 1” height difference but that’s kinda a stretch (especially since his vertical leap and contested catch rate amongst the top in the class)… so I’m super curious, what is this obvious common denominator?

 

Yes, it's size. Not just the 1 inch but the 20+ pounds. It makes a huge difference on contested catches and I have not seen evidence that he did that well in college, would love to see it if you have it.

Wilson will never be able to go get it like those guys. I like his ability to separate and the speed, but he looks like a #2. Would love to be wrong unless he lands in the AFC East

 

Unfortunately Wilson broke too many ankles to have a long highlight reel of contested catches.

If you’re looking for a contested catch monster, why aren’t you higher on London?

Found this on a Reddit post.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B4jnXD0pvj0j5aa8ybNHVnGcEFcZARtMBAMSq8osGpY/htmlview