I don't like safety's at 4. Nah, I'll pass even though we have huge holes at safety. We can pick them up later rounds. Stay with the beef at 4 to protect Zach is my choice. Especially with Becton being a lazy fuck.
Ekwonu is a no brainer pick. I am hearing whispers the Texans like him. So he won’t be available. Lam
That’s fine if they take him. Becton is coming back next year wether we like it or not. Fant too. At this point, we need to see if another 1 on OL is worth it? I’d draft Neal then only if JD sense or tell sooner Becton is out of shape and lazy OR, Fant is walking.
If they take Hamilton at 4 I might throw a remote through my TV and I'll join the crowd that wants JD fired.
I don't really understand why people are so anti-Hamilton. He is not similar to Adams whatsoever other than both being elite prospects. Their playstyles are totally different. Adams is basically an OLB who can't cover. Hamilton is great in coverage with good ball skills. That type of safety is much more impactful on wins and losses. The NFL is a passing league. You have to be able to cover receivers and TE's or you're toast. It's no coincidence that the best teams year after year are always the best passing teams. The Bills have the best safety duo in the league and were coincidentally the #1 defense. WAR indicates that safety is literally among the 3-4 most important positions in the game, behind only QB, WR and CB. It's a premium position and Hamilton is a premium talent. We also are very weak at safety currently. There are a ton of good reasons we should want a guy like Hamilton. He honestly might be the best player in this draft.
It's got nothing to do with the player, it has to do with the position he plays. I don't really care what WAR says when it comes to football. You could add prime Ed Reed to the 2021 Jets and they probably win 1-2 more games, I'm thinking Carolina off the top of my head because Robby burned them deep once. The name of the game is protect your QB and hit the other teams QB. Taking a safety at 4th overall is a luxury pick my friend.
Is there a good reason to distrust WAR? Hitting the QB is definitely important, coverage has a synergistic relationship with pressuring the QB. Pass rushers help the secondary and the secondary helps pass rushers. For what it's worth I'd take Hutch or Thib over Hamilton if either is there at 4, I just don't think they will be.
I don't like WAR because it feels like an individual statistic in a team sport. It makes sense in a sport like baseball because individual performance can truly lift a team. For the most part in the NFL, you need the entire team on the same page and executing or else a play can fail miserably. Also, if I'm not mistaken, aren't IOL ranked low in positional importance according to WAR? I feel like I remember reading that in the Trading for AVT thread and if it is true, that's something I strongly disagree with. I really do like Hamilton as a player and he probably is the best player in this draft, I just don't like him for the Jets. I'd rather have the Jets address S in FA by signing a Marcus Williams or Jesse Bates. Hell, even Tyrann Matheiu would be a good signing. #4 should be used to get an edge or one of the two OTs.
I don't think JD would take Hamilton, but if he did, I could understand why. He would be the consensus best player available, and he would perhaps do more to improve our D than any other player not named Hutchinson or Thibodeaux. Especially, if he approaches the level of Ed Reed-type play. That said, I hope he doesn't take him, but if he does, I won't want him fired for that one pick. He's done too much else right and has us on the right track. I'll wait and see how Hamilton plays, how the rest of JD's picks pan out, how his FA moves pan out, and how Saleh and his CS do this coming year. The only way I think the Johnsons should even think about firing JD is if his whole draft class busts this year, he whiffs in FA, and Saleh fails to improve the team this season.
All good points, but if Zach got seriously injured because Edoga was having to play LT again, it wouldn't matter if Hamilton was better than Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu combined.
Individual players have less of an impact in football, yes, but that is reflected in WAR. Every position other than QB has a WAR under 1. It's still valuable as a tool to see which positions are more impactful than others for wins and losses. OL is middle of the pack in WAR. RB is the lowest. I'd love an edge at #4 but I don't think Hutch or Thib will be there and Karlaftis would be a massive reach at 4. I also hate the idea of taking yet another OL with our first pick. If we resign Moses and Fant there is very little need to add another OT. Even if one of them walks we only need another OT if Becton flat out busts next season. We need playmakers. The Bengals should be proof of that. Hell, even the Rams, Chiefs and Bucs are proof of that. The biggest common denominator (other than great QB's) among those teams is great weapons.
The Jets have 2 offensive linemen under contract in 2023. I love the idea of having Becton + Neal/Ekwonu and if Becton doesn't work out, you have an insurance policy. I'm all over WR and TE with 10 and 35 or 39.
Spending #4 overall on an insurance policy is really hard to stomach. You don't take a guy #4 overall if there's any chance he won't be starting immediately. As of now there's a reasonable chance Becton will still work out for us. I'm not the biggest believer, but he's not a total bust quite yet. I agree on WR and TE.
It’s not an insurance policy. Both Ekwonu and Neal can line up at guard for 2022 then slide back out to OT once Fant’s contract is up.
The things is it wouldn't be just insurance. Ekwonu and probably Neal as well, could play RG in 2022, and then move out to RT in 2023 after Fant's contract has expired or if Fant has become the LT, and Becton isn't working out at RT.
A couple of responses on the above. RB is not or should not be at the bottom when you have a young QB that you're trying to develop. I totally agree that Karlaftis would be a massive reach at #4, and I would add also at #10. There are at least 3 edges not named KT orr Hutchinson that I would rather have than Karlaftis (Ojabo, Ebiketie, and Myjai Sanders. I might prefer Cam Thomas, Enagbare, and Sam Williams over him too after I watch more film on them. I disagree regarding OT. Edoga and McDermott should never see the field again for the Jets. If nothing else, the Jets need better depth at OT. If Becton is as injury prone as you claim, and with Fant getting injured this past season, we need another OT besides Moses. We definitely need playmakers at WR, TE, RB, S, CB and LB.
I’m not completely against taking a tackle at 4, but I think it’s a bit lackadaisical to say things like “no worries, he’ll play guard his rookie year and tackle the next!” As a general room of thumb, it gets easier as you move in on the offensive line. It takes a special player to go from guard to tackle. Elgton Jenkins did it for the Packers but he’s elite. Joe Thuney had to do it in a pinch in Bengals/Chiefs in round one and got beaten like an absolute drum when Orlando Brown went down. It’s not impossible but it’s also not always that easy. Ereck Flowers was an awful tackle for the Giants and is a pretty serviceable guard.
Reports about Becton now saying LT is an open competition and drafting an OT is a possibility. The Jets will take Neal or Ekwonu at 4, take it to the bank.
