Should the New York Jets draft Tyler Linderbaum in the 1st Round?

I don’t think he’s going to fall that far. However if the Jets are able to trade down from 10 to say 14 or 15, get an extra third this year and still get Linderbaum, that would be a championship type move.

 

I’m talking about the all pro center who fell last year and the one who will certainly fall next year or the year after.

 

I'd love to add Linderbaum, but at #10 or after trading down a little bit, it could very easily come down to a choice between Linderbaum, Dean/Lloyd, one of the Edges, and Burks, and I'd take Burks every single time, even though I'd love to add any of those other three and maybe the Edge (depending upon who it is) to the team.

 

So people keep saying but why haven't we drafted one there yet?

 

Well if this one falls this time, we will be well placed to take advantage with two picks in the 2nd

 

We need help at guard also but decent guards can be found in the middle rounds.

Yes, but so can good players at other positions be found in the middle rounds. As an example, let's look at a list of the better TE's (which you indicate is a top position priority, and I agree):

1. Mark Andrews BAL 17 154 107 1,361 9 190.1 11.2, Round 3
2. Travis Kelce KC 16 135 92 1,125 9 172.8 10.8, Round 3
3. Kyle Pitts ATL 17 110 68 1,026 1 108.6 6.4, Round 1
4. George Kittle SF 14 95 71 910 6 129.0 9.2, Round 5
5. Dallas Goedert PHI 15 76 56 830 4 107.0 7.1, Round 2
6. Dalton Schultz DAL 17 104 78 808 8 128.8 7.6, Round 4
7. Rob Gronkowski TB 12 89 55 802 6 116.2 9.7, Round 2
8. Mike Gesicki MIA 17 111 73 780 2 90.0 5.3, Round 2
9. Zach Ertz PHI 17 112 74 763 5 106.7 6.3, Round 2
10. Noah Fant DEN 16 90 68 670 4 91.0 5.7, Round 1
11. Darren Waller LV 11 93 55 665 2 78.5 7.1, Round 6
12. Cole Kmet CHI 17 93 60 612 0 61.2 3.6, Round 2
13. Hunter Henry NE 16 75 50 603 9 114.3 7.1, Round 2
14. Tyler Conklin MIN 17 87 61 593 3 77.3 4.5, Round 5
15. Dawson Knox BUF 15 71 49 587 9 113.1 7.5, Round 3
16. T.J. Hockenson DET 12 83 61 583 4 82.3 6.9, Round 1
17. Jared Cook LAC 16 83 48 564 4 80.4 5.0, Round 3
18. Tyler Higbee LAR 15 85 61 560 5 86.0 5.7, Round 4
19. Pat Freiermuth PIT 16 79 60 497 7 91.7 5.7, Round 2
20. C.J. Uzomah CIN 16 63 49 493 5 79.3 5.0, Round 5

For comparison, let's look at a list of recent Pro Bowl guards:

G Quenton Nelson, Round 1
G Zack Martin, Round 1
G Marshal Yanda, Round 3
G Brandon Brooks, Round 3
G Joel Bitonio, Round 2
G David DeCastro, Round 1
G Trai Turner, Round 3
G Larry Warford, Round 3
G Andrus Peat, Round 1
G Elton Jenkins, Round 2
G Brandon Scherff, Round 1
G Ali Marpet, Round 2
G Wyatt Teller, Round 5
G Kelechi Osemele, Round 2
G Richie Incognito, Round 3
G TJ Lang, Round 4
G Josh Sitton, Round 4
G Mike Iupati, Round 1
G Kyle Long, Round 1
G Jhari Evans, Round 4
G Evan Mathis, Round 3

At first glance, it's interesting that the list of top recent tight ends includes [edit: four] players who were picked in the 5th and 6th rounds (including Kittle and Waller), whereas [edit: only one] of the Pro Bown guards was picked lower than the 4th round. I'm not saying that higher picks don't on average have better chances of being decent than lower picks. But as Jets fans, we know that our front office has historically proven quite capable of finding high pick busts at any position; history shows that teams that draft well can find good players at any round in the draft.

 

So in short, good players can be found in all rounds at most positions.

 

consider that players drafted in later rounds have been passed over by all teams many times. It is all a matter of luck at that point. the only real way to "guarantee" a quality player(we all know the uncertainty involved) is to draft one early. Teams have multiple receivers and running backs, multiple linebackers, defensive backfield and defensive lineman. But teams ONLY have 2 tackles, two guards and one center. it is damn hard to get high quality at these positions. So if you can draft such a player, DO IT!

 

Not by the Jets


edit

Kittle in round 5 wow, what did they not see on his tape lol

 

So you're saying that teams should actually prioritize offensive lineman in the early rounds? That's the opposite of what REVISion seemed to be saying.

Looking at examples like the Bengals (who have drafted only one guard above round 4 since 2002 and one center above round 4 since 1998 but have chosen high WR picks repeatedly), it seems debatable whether interior offensive line positions should be prioritized. I think we're back to not being rigid about any position, since good and bad players at any position can be found early and late in the draft (depending on the quality of your scouting department).

 

There are no absolute rules in football. But unless i have e great QB and a couple of excellent receivers who can overcome poor line play, I'm going for excellent OL before anything (except QB obviously). how did the cinncy line look last game? But every game is different. looking back at the jest win over cinncy, the cinncy line was a contributing factor to the defeat.

 

Actually, the Kittle pick is one prime exhibit in support of JD's apparent inclination to value athletic ability as highly as college production. Because of situational factors, Kittle highest reception total at Iowa was 22 catches in his senior year, but he tested athletically off the charts. JD went with athleticism over college renown in picking players like Echols.

By the way, situational factors seem to have cut down Ruckert's TE production at Ohio State (26 catches in senior year) in a similar way to Kittle's at Iowa. If he tests in Kittle's ballpark, he might be an excellent mid round bargain! [Edit: forgot to mention that Kittle was known as a great blocker at Iowa whereas Ruckert perhaps not so much.]

 

Scouts and GMs across the league will be relieved/disappointed to hear their jobs have nothing to do with quality of work and it’s all just dumb luck.

I guess it should be expected from someone who uses guarantee and uncertainty involved in the same sentence.

we should find our next GM in Vegas. No skill needed, just need to find someone lucky.

 

Hmm. What to say. I put the word guarantee in quotes indicating I don't really think there is such a thing as a guaranteed player .I guess you didn't get that.
Of course the success of many picks is dumb luck (I was referring to picks in later rounds but it could also apply to early picks)., especially when the selecting team decided not to pick the player 4 or 5 times before. Almost all the picks are heavily scouted and when teams continually pass on a player they feel he was not good enough to be selected at a particular draft position. If the team really thought they had a gem, don't you think they would have made an earlier selection. Gm's and scouts are human after all and prone to all kinds of prejudices, distortions, illogic and other sources of error leading to total misjudgments on players. They are lucky (no quotes here) if their judgements turn out to be correct. Look no further than the jets drafting of QB the last 10 years.

I suspect there is more art than science involved

 

I never understood how Kittle fell to the 5th round. I loved him and wanted the Jets to take him in the 2nd round. I truly thought that ever GM in the NFL was blind or had lost his freaking mind. It has to be some kind of groupthink that was biased against him for one reason or another.

 

Yes, I was smitten with Kittle's athletic profile also, and wanted the Jets to draft him. As far as why he fell, it seems to have to do with his injury history as well as his poor receiving production.
49ers news: Why did star tight end George Kittle fall in the 2017 NFL Draft? - Niners Nation

 

Probably different reasons every year.

-Last year we drafted a guard early
-The year before we drafted one there, but injuries have contributed to his lack of development
-The decade before that, we had shitty GMs

Building the trenches:
I think we’re going back to OL in the 3-4-or-5. It’s only a 2 year sample but we’ve drafted a developmental lineman both years. , let’s see if the trend continues.

 

I vehemently agree with your last sentence… which goes against (how I’m reading) the rest of the post.

You imply past Jets scouts and decision makers have been unlucky (you mention QB), my stance is they were bad at their job.

Luck can be found at the intersection of hard work and skill.