Sam had more touchdowns than turnovers as a rookie. So did Mayfield and Jackson (and even Mason Rudolph). As well as Murray, Daniel Jones, and Minshew. And Burrow, Herbert, Tagovailoa, and Hurts. And Mac Jones and Davis Mills. What's rare is a rookie who has more turnovers than touchdowns and doesn't go on to become a bust.
Zach IS pretty nifty handling the football... scooping up low snaps... clean hand-offs... etc. Hey... it's something...
I think this is a eye opening post. Does it mean that ZW going to fail? No. It is a little concerning imo. That being said it doesn’t mean I won’t support ZW, and he s our QB next year and we re going to live and die with him, hope he improves and be efficient. I keep saying this, I don’t need him to be. Herbert or Murray, or Burrow as far as numbers and an uprising QB. Just don’t make TOs, move the chains, put points on the board. Hopefully we ll get a good draft and we see this team win 7-8-9 wins next year….
The point of this stat is that it is very hard to address TO issues in NFL. Zach lead NFL in TOs after first 6 games by a relatively wide margin. However, he has second fewest TOs to only I think Rogers over that last 6 games. He had 8 TDs (5 passing, 3 rushing) and only 2 total TOs (1 INT, 1 lost fumble) in that span. Also, this is considering he had terrible supporting cast for most of the time, throwing to the guys, as someone pointed out, he just met in the tunnel on the way to the field. OL was also depleted significantly. These are the nuances that must be considered. Finally, the eye test. I tried to analyze every play he had. Honestly, I got an impression that no matter who the QB was, they wouldn't be able to do much better, but could do a lot worse. Yes, there were a few bad throws here and there, but that was a very small number, Majority of the misses were either throw aways, dropped balls, heavy pressures, which explains low completion %. Most times receivers don't get open before pressure comes. Zach had little to work with, and looks like he made most of it. He took a big step forward in last 6 games compared to first 6, even though he had shit to work with. That's what gives me confidence there is a good likelihood he will take a significant leap forward in the second year, which Sam didn't really take. But he needs help from JD. Another top WR, a really good TE, better quality depth of non injury prone players, improved OL. Then we will know what we have with Zach, but I don't think what he has done so far screams bust, it's feels more like he needs better help, and he will take another big step forward.
The problem with Zach's second half is the way he cut turnovers was by avoiding any throw that had a remote chance of being picked. Which meant that aside from the lack of turnovers, his stats were still awful.
I really don't understand how this "Zach isn't a leader" narrative came about. I guess the 3 car garage thing and Bart Scott going on a ridiculous rant about being selfish started that. Everything I've seen shows that his teammates love him. Hell, his own teammates voted him a TEAM CAPTAIN.
I don't think it is true at all. He didn't make stupid throws, but there were plenty of throws where had he missed slightly, he would have been picked. There is a clear pattern of improvement mid season. Whether he is FQB or not, I just think this question has not been answered, and it's trending positive. It would have been nice to know now, but we will have to wait until next year, where hopefully he will heave cast better than McDermott, Montgomery and Black (a guy whom he met on the way to the field).
His yards per game average in his games before the injury was 223.4 (excluding New England PT II) and it dipped down to 179.8 and I generously excluded the Buffalo game. So it would seem that he was not throwing down the field as much, which are plays that are generally much more likely to get picked off.
I need to look at all his picks, but were most of them made downfield? I recall a lot of shorter passes that were picked off.
The last 5 games Zach turned into what Sam was last season. Being overly conservative, even when we were trailing late. The difference is when Sam was conservative he'd still manage to throw an INT. So I'll give Zach credit for being better than Sam.
Yeah, most of them were in the 12-20 yard range. Those are chunk plays in the NFL for the most part. His yards/attempt and yards/completion went down about a yard. And like I said - I’m giving him a mulligan on that Buffalo game.
He did better in his 2nd game against Buffalo with almost 0 on-field support than Mac Jones did in both his games against Buffalo with huge on-field support.
Consider the fact that Zach played against weaker competition in college and thus, had a bigger jump to make when transitioning to the NFL. So it's fair to say he had a low floor. I also think he has a top-level skillset and thus, a high ceiling (meaning high potential). Sam played against tough competition in college and was well prepared for the NFL and performed pretty well as a rookie, but never improved. Apparently, Sam had a high floor, but a low ceiling.
yeah, its hard to throw an interception when you run backwards 15 yards and chuck it desperately at the sideline
