Good. I’m looking forward to hearing back from you as I don’t think those examples exist. Thank you!!
Huh? We're complaining about a slight overpay? Some thoughts: - Last time I checked, we traded Jamal Adams for two #1s and a #3. We STOLE the OG that our GM and HC deemed best for our system. We STOLE AVT. (let's not forget we got AVT and the #7 pick in this years draft). - This board has plenty of rascals who called out JD for being too cheap with free agents. Now we're saying he overpaid. - At the time, our biggest hole was OL. On the line the biggest hole was OG. We went after the guy who JD believed was head and shoulders above the rest. Great business people NEVER let a consultant or outsider assign value. It's on leadership to assess and eVALUate. We have a front office that's doing it right for the first time in a generation. I just can't stomach folks second guessing JD's ability to assess value.
No it really isn't. In general, perhaps, but not in this specific draft. The next highest-rated OL was Christian Darrisaw. I believe that he was coming off a major injury, and then even when he started playing, he struggled at first, and he's an OT, so that wouldn't have helped us at LG, unless they had played him at LG for a year and then moved him to RT? What sense does that make? The next highest-rated OL (by the media) was was Landon Dickerson, a walking wounded, injury-prone player who wasn't a scheme fit, and there's no way that we should have even considered him with his injury history. After him was Teven Jenkins. Again he's an OT, but we had talked about taking him, playing him at RG for a year and then moving him to RT in 2022. That would have perhaps been a possibility, but not switching sides of the line. In addition, JD may never have taken him because he probably knew about Jenkins' back issues, whereas we didn't. After Jenkins, was Liam Eichenberg, again an OT. We could conceivably have switched him to OG, although at 6'6" that's a little tall for OG. Has he been any good? He was taken at pick #42. So, JD would have either had to roll the dice with Dickerson or take an OT, switch him to OG and hope it worked out. I've already mentioned the 3rd round picks, and I don't think that would have worked out, either. Chances are, that at point, JD wouldn't even have taken another OL, much less two, because there would.have been better players at other positions of need he could have taken and the quality of the OL was dropping off rapidly.
I read the article. It confirms my stance of “all trade Ups (esp in the 1st)” are “-EV”. I’m hoping to read something that’s more aligned with your stance. As a reminder, as I understand your position, you walked back “all early trades are bad” into all -EV trade ups are bad. My stance is “all rd 1 trade ups are -EV” and your article confirms it (for this year at least).
Where did I ever say all early trade ups are bad? I just said it happens to be that most trade ups are -EV because teams fall in love with individual prospects and overrate their own ability to select winners.
Ok--I get what you're saying--you're looking over the long run whereby a low twenties first-round pick and 2 thirds will on average, over the long run, produce better value than a single #14 pick. I think that's true statistically so you are right. If Team A takes the 14th pick 5 years in a row and Team B takes the low twenties pick and two 3rd rounders 5 years in a row, Team B will be better after 5 years all else being equal.
You say all -EV trades are bad (you’re reasoning behind the AVT trade being bad) I say ALL trade ups in the 1st round are -EV therefore by your logic, all 1st round trades are bad. I’m requesting any example of a 1st round trade up that’s not -EV to see your point of “not all 1st round trades are bad” in action. Capeesh?
We should figure out the -EV for the Chicago trade up to get Trubisky VS. the -EV KC paid to trade up for Mahomes to see who made a good trade and who made a bad trade.
Julio Jones was definitely a trade up for a missing piece kind of trade. Didn’t the Texans trade up for Deshaun Watson? Not to say they’re frequent but they do happen.
Browns trade a top 6 pick for a couple in the 20’s… can you imagine rooting for a team that dysfunctional? /s
How about second guessing his team building skill? I haven't followed the other discussions on this that closely but my point was pretty straight forward. We were 2-14 with one of the worst rosters in the league. Using 3 picks on a guard is not a good way to rebuild through the draft. Its not about if AVT is a good guard or not. Its about squandering resources on one player with a team full of holes. The trade we made for AVT was something that a rising team (8-8 or better) might do to get over the hump. When a rebuilding team does that it reveals the GM is in over his head. Our roster this season proves that.
My opinion of JD isn't quite so bad because he's been phenomenal at trades but yeah, the best GM's in the league almost never do things like the AVT trade. There is good reason for that - they are trying to optimize every single little detail that they can. That means never doing a 9/10 move when a 10/10 move is possible. Those things add up over time. This isn't to say JD is a terrible GM or anything. He's the best one we've had in quite some time. Let's be careful not to anoint him a genius just because he's better than the garbage we've had in the past though.
Gotcha. I think trades involving a QB change the entire equation because they're essentially a prerequisite to success and have so much upside if you do happen to hit on one.
Absolutely absurd. He acquired three extra picks in the first four rounds of this years draft, two of them being in the first two rounds. Turning players that have no future here into draft picks doesn’t matter? It’s almost as if you’re cherry picking to help support your opinion.
I agree trading is JDs strength. (taps bold for @BroadwayZach). But his team building is ass backwards and the last draft proved that. Our 1st round was the type of first round a team has in year 3 of their rebuild, not year 1.5.
this again is just pure absurdity. This draft class was a triple if not a homerun and you’re writing it off because it happened too early? My god we have to be the only fanbase out there that can complain about a draft class being TOO good.
It is slightly different. While in average you are correct, the big part of it evaluation of players. If JD evaluated that AVT is much better than the next guy, then it's not the same as a random move up. Yes, in average, the GMs are more often wrong, and the next guy turns out to be almost as good. In this case though JD's evaluation was right and he beat the odds. Ultimately end result is what counts, and he end result is great. For example, JD moved down a year before in the second round because he thought Claypool, Jefferson, and Mims were close in value. So, Jets ended up with Mims, James Morgan, Clark and Hamsah. Claypool was the next WR taken. Basically, we lost Claypool and gained 4 guys. And yet none of these guys are good and are easily replaceable, while Claypool is good and hard to replace. There are only so many people you can put on the field. We ended up losing a high end guy and gained 4 scrubs. So, yeah, generally this trade makes sense, but he misevaluated and end result was not good. That's why when we look at JD's performance, Mims trade is not going to score him any points. AVT one, however, is a big win.
I think he has the right idea on how to build a team - prioritize the most important positions, accumulate draft capital etc. - but his execution has been mediocre so far. OT and WR are very important positions but he totally botched the Mims pick and the Becton pick is looking questionable or downright bad considering Wirfs' success. I know we don't agree on the Wilson pick.
If he knew he would have traded the #2 pick for building capital instead of rushing into another top 3 QB pick, and not overpaid for a guard. He is never going to build a team that is more than one and done before his 6 years ends.
