It's not this black and white at all. We have 5 picks in the first 70 picks this year. Beyond the fact that we got a great player at a position of need which is the one and only justification you need to trade up... we have tons of assets sitting in the bank. You're going to tell me we'd be in better position without AVT who we KNOW is good and with three guys we took a shot on just because they are warm bodies? That's just not logical. I'd also be interested to hear what team traded up for the final piece as opposed to rebuilding teams that traded up for a big piece. Bills, Texans, Chiefs, etc. And I can't reiterate enough that the calculator and spreadsheet mean close to nothing.
Statistically, yes, we'd probably be in a better position. As good as AVT has been he's unlikely to be that much better than an OL taken 23rd, our original pick. Having a good OL is more about having no glaring weaknesses than about having a superstar at one spot and disasters at others (GVR). Our OL would've likely been better as a whole if we had a guy slightly worse at LG than AVT and someone slightly better than GVR at RG (which we'd probably have if we took two OL with the two 3rd round picks we gave away). Recall that halfway through this season GVR alone was responsible for allowing almost half of our overall pressures allowed. JV?
This is so exciting to learn something new, I’m very eager to hear about some +EV 1st round trades. I did a quick look at the last 3 drafts but couldn’t find one… can you provide some examples?
Not an exact answer to your question but this article talks about it: https://overthecap.com/valuing-the-top-trade-ups-in-the-2021-nfl-draft/ An excerpt from it: The Jets, by far, gave up the most to trade up this year. Guard is one of the lower valued positions that a team can draft and the Jets lose value just based on that alone. The expected return for pick 14 would be around $8 million for a guard, around the level of player as Gabe Jackson- basically the 13th or so highest paid guard in the league. To balance out the trade the Jets need him to increase that figure to $14.8 million. Among players on a multi-year contract that would mean he has to end up the second highest paid guard in the NFL. That’s a huge hill to climb and a very bullish assessment by the Jets as it would be the highest expectation level for any player in this years draft.
I don't get it. Next in line was rumored to be Jenkins who had back problems, just had a back surgery, and ended up with his career in jeopardy before he played a single snap. If we took him, we would end up not with a guy slight worse, but a total no show. Also, it is absolute misnomer that we traded 3 guys for 1. We actually traded 23d and two other 3d round picks for AVT and a 4th, then converted that 4th to Pinnock and Echols, who are decent. So we ended up giving up these 3 picks for a really good LT, who is not injury prone like the inferior alternatives, plus two other decent players, who are contributing on the team. We gave 3 picks and took back what ended up 3 productive players. What's not to like?
I'm really prepared to search for examples. Its just a known team building philosophy. We cant really judge this trade up because its too early and we will never know who we could have gotten if we didn't. It could have been a score or a bust. But when rebuilding its not a good look to spend 3 high picks on one player. I'm just glad it hasn't been a shakey bust.
See this is where evaluating a trade based on numbers and values loses me. The next OL taken that we would have gone after was Teven Jenkins who had injury issues and then played horrendous when he was finally forced into the role. So yes, AVT was much better than him. We can quantify that. And then if you're talking about landing a guard in the 3rd round... who was it? You need to provide a solution rather than "well probably" if you're gonna make the argument.
We've done this over and over - but its always speculation at this point. We could have gotten Moore (23), Dickerson (34), Humphry (62), and a LB/DB with Seattles pick. Humphry would have required trading up from 66 to 62 - but would have been a major score. Or whatever flexibility we choose as the draft progressed. Also, Darrisaw went with our pick 23, not Jenkins. Again, we will never know though. We left a lot of players on the board to get AVT.
We can't say any of these things because we have no idea who JD's second choice at OL was behind AVT. What we can say, for sure, is that doing the trade up that we did usually isn't the most optimal thing to do for a team with as many holes as we have. It may work out in our favor but again, that doesn't mean the decision was a good one, just that we got lucky and got a positive result. Again, the 4th and 2 decision is a good analogy. It was the right move to go for it. The result has zero impact on the decision itself because we base the decision on what USUALLY happens, not what happened to happen this one single time.
Not for nothing but Ashtyn Davis is a starter. So is that safety that gave up the game wining TD against Brady. Shit, we have 22 guys that are "starters." I don't know how you compare one player at a position to a other at a different position. The Jets needed a good/great guard and they went and got him. I'm not sure how you can say getting two JAG starters is better than getting a good player at a real position of need. It's all hypothetical I guess. Anyway, thanks for answering the question. Personally I'm happy we took AVT. Guy is good and only going to get better....my opinion of course
You're looking at this all in hindsight though and that's not a fair way to judge a trade either. You don't know what we COULD have had because a.) you don't know where AVT goes and how that throws off the following picks and b.) you don't know who was ranked where on our board so yes, if everything went absolutely perfect we would have had all those guys. But that's just not reality.
It wouldn't have required much to "go perfect". It would have required solid scouting though, rather then just locking onto the one highest rated guy.
Davis is a temporary starter because of multiple injuries. What I'm talking about are guys who become consistent, long term starters for a team. The comparison with AVT is not AVT vs. two JAGS. It's AVT vs. an OL a tiny bit worse than him (the 23rd pick) AND two JAGS. Odds are one of those JAGS would've at least been better than GVR considering GVR is an absolute disaster of a player.
If it doesn't require much for a team to make the absolute right pick every time then how come so few teams are able to do it? Come on man, that's crazy hindsight. Bottom line is we ended up with 1 absolute instead of 3 maybes. That's a victory no matter how you look at it.
