4th and 2

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by JetFan20, Jan 2, 2022.

  1. bicketybam

    bicketybam Well-Known Member

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    Has the Clinton kabal asked your to visit Ghislaine Maxwell yet? 5 minutes of talking Jets football and she will be surely swing from the rafters.
     
  2. bicketybam

    bicketybam Well-Known Member

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    That's not the definition of often. Coin flip is 50/50. Genius.
     
  3. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    Huh? Percentages don’t offer an advantage ever. It’s just math

    I don’t think the Jets were really playing percentages there, by the way, I don’t think they are that smart.

    It wasn’t a calculated decision, if it was they woulda been better organized and deliberate. They wouldn’t have ran a fucking QB sneak haha
     
  4. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    Every other flip you lose.

    That would be one of my definitions of often.
     
  5. bicketybam

    bicketybam Well-Known Member

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    So then would be winning, right?
     
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  6. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    There's more than one game in a season. Playing the percentages results in more wins over time.
     
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  7. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    This is ridiculous. It's one thing to think Zach won't be the guy, it's another to just make shit up about his character.
     
  8. LAJet

    LAJet Well-Known Member

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    To me is quite simple, Jets were not able to stop Brady in the last half of the game, period. Our offense had a much better chance to put the game away with one play. Great call, awful play called for it. End of story.
     
  9. bicketybam

    bicketybam Well-Known Member

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    I rarely agree with you but I'm glad to see what I see. I'm not sure what @Br4d is smoking these days.
     
  10. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

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    Whether it was Wilson or Saleh's fault, the percentages assume the play the coaches want will actually be the one that the players try to execute. It seems like that was not the case for us.
     
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  11. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    The ironic thing is I think Zach sneaked it because the coaches beat it into him that he's to run exactly what LaFleur calls and not improvise. And this time LaFleur made a mistake with the verbiage of the call, and instead of realizing there must be a mistake and not sneaking it, Zach sneaked it. In other words, Zach was trying so hard not to play hero and not to take matters into his own hands that he messed up.
     
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  12. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    Well we're back to me disagreeing with you. That didn't take long.

    I admit that my first thought after seeing that play live was "I think Zach tried to take the game into his own hands". I was wrong. As Saleh admitted - and Zach explained (while taking responsibility for not getting the 1st down) - the play was a designed option, with Option A being "Read the A-gap. If it seems like it'll be open, keep the ball and go for it. If the A-gap doesn't seem like it'll be open, hand it to Berrios on a sweep". Zach said he saw the A-gap open and did what he had been told to do. That was NOT "hero ball", it was a QB doing what he was told to do.

    That said, IMO he did make a mistake: he got fooled into thinking the A-gap was open. But the Bucc's defense is experienced and is well versed in disguising looks so I'll forgive him for that.

    But where to you get the idea that "But give him the opportunity to make it all about him and he'll do that."? WTF? This kid has stood up in front of the most difficult press corps in sports week after week and answered questions - quite a few posed as "gotcha" questions - and always acknowledges where he made mistakes - and is specific in pointing these errors out. Never once have I heard him make it about himself.

    Honestly, I'm beginning to wonder what your real motivation is for hating Wilson. Do you have a large bet with the sports books that you'll win if he flops?

    No, he doesn't have Rodgers's skills...yet. But if he stays healthy and the Jets get him the support he should have, he'll get to that level.
     
  13. LAJet

    LAJet Well-Known Member

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    Seems to me you have an agenda against Wilson to feed, and you do that consistently with or without facts. This whole ego mode play from SNY Scott is utter nonsensical BS. The play call was an option and totally wrong with two yards to go. If there was ego it was by the OC.
     
  14. CotcheryFan

    CotcheryFan 2018 ROTY Poster Award Winner

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    I can understand being against taking Wilson at 2. There were other paths to take and he wasn't the QB I preferred. But calling him arrogant or thinking he has a big ego is just ridiculous.
     
  15. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Does it though? There’s only 17 games in a season. How many identical scenarios come up over the course of a 17 game season? It’s not like baseball where you come up in the 3rd with no runners on, no outs, 85 times in a given season against a righty.
     
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  16. Acad23

    Acad23 Well-Known Member

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    Wow.

    I guess you didn't vote Zach for team MVP... :confused:
     
  17. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    I agree that trying to apply analytics to football like they do in baseball is incorrect. Certainly the far less number of games, and therefore the number of plays you can derive the numbers from makes a big difference. But I do think that you can derive valid analytics in football as long as you take that into account.

    But as to this specific situation - the 4th and 2 and going for it - I don't think you need analytics or a degree in statistics to see that going for it in this situation was the best choice. The play call however was horrible. But just sticking with the situation, the Jets had nothing to lose. If they didn't make it, they still had the Buccs pinned deep in their territory with less than 2 minutes to go. Even for Brady who is the absolute best at come backs, that's a tall order. But say they kick the FG and go up 7. Now Brady gets the ball with essentially the same amount of time, but at a minimum he gets to start from his 30 - almost 20 yards closer. And given his history of successful comebacks, it was highly likely that they would score a TD and then have the opportunity to either go for 2 and win it right away - also a high chance of success with Brady at QB - or tie it and then have a great chance to win it in OT. OTOH, if the Jets had made that 1st down they win, period.

    Another factor to consider is that Saleh is trying to build a winning culture, and to get his team experience in winning close games at the end. You don't get that by playing it safe and basically putting the game in the hands of the other team, especially a team led by the GOAT.
     
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  18. bicketybam

    bicketybam Well-Known Member

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    He just showed his hand. If I'm a homer, he's the polar opposite.
     
  19. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    That exact scenario won't come up again, but there are tons of 4th and 2s that come up, 4th downs in the red zone, 4th downs late in the game where converting it ices the game, etc. So unless you a crystal ball about exactly when going for it will or won't work, it's best to just play the percentages. And you do have to consider the specifics of the situation, but in this case, the specifics bolstered the decision to go for it. It really came down to whether you thought, before the screw up with the play call, that the Jets had a better chance of getting the two yards or of beating the Bucs in overtime. And given the Bucs being the better team, it was the right choice to have it come down to a single play than a bunch of plays in overtime where the law of averages would tilt heavily in the Bucs favor.
     
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  20. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    It basically comes down to: Would you rather try to ice the game by making 2 yards and if you fail having them deep in their territory, or would you rather give the ball to the best come back QB in history 20 yards closer to the EZ?

    Also, don't minimize the jolt of confidence they got from having their HC believe they could get it.
     
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