Remember when we used to have "Keys to Victory" threads every week? The good ol days when hope still survived.
How do you figure that? Not trading up for AVT doesn't mean we wouldn't have taken a guard. If we hadn't traded up for him we'd probably have drafted someone slightly worse than AVT for LG and ended up with someone slightly better than GVR at RG. We could've also landed Humphrey who's already an elite center and moved McGovern to G.
How would the draft have played out if did not trade up? Please use names. it is easy to say slightly lesser.
Well Idk much about the Jaguars but I do know the Lions lost their 2 best linemen to injury most the year (they played center and left tackle). And I know the Bears have a geriatric at left tackle it appears it could be because of bad tackles
JD has been collecting picks which gives him the flexibility to move up the draft if the opportunity arises, which it did for AVT. Even with trading two 3rd rd picks the Jets have more draft picks last draft and this upcoming draft than most if not all teams. This isn’t like the Tannenbaum days where we traded all out picks and ended up with 4 man drafts. We’re stockpiling picks and moving up and down the draft.
We could have traded pick 66 and a sixth and gotten Creed Humphrey (went pick 63), and gotten Dickerson in the 2nd. The first 3 rounds could have easily been Wilson, Moore, Dickerson, Humphrey, and a DB/LB with Seattle's 3rd.
That's not a game you can play because changing earlier picks changes the trajectory of the later picks. The talent level differences of guys taken 14th or 23rd are usually negligible though, and third round picks have a pretty good shot at becoming starters. Given how bad GVR was it's probably fair to say that one of the guys taken in the 3rd round would've ended up better than him. Humphrey went in the late 2nd round and he's already an elite center. We also could use another tackle because of the uncertainty around Becton.
We still have multiple question marks on the OL despite investing premium draft capital into it the last 2 drafts. That's what happens when you trade up with a roster that has a ton of holes. We're probably going to have to take another OL high in the next draft which is just unacceptable. Had we kept the picks there's a pretty good shot we could focus solely on WR, edge and CB early in this draft. The domino effects of trading up when you have too many holes to do so are really bad.
The bold is why you take the best guy for the highest priority position of need when it's your turn. You don't know who will be there later. We can all say with hindsight: "He could've gotten Humphrey in the 3rd", but maybe ho could or maybe he couldn't. And if he didn't, then who, and would that guy have panned out? Douglas wound up getting the guy he believed would fill the next highest position of need on the Jets at the current time, essentially in exchange for a 3rd round pick, while also getting two guys he targeted with his next two picks. None of know how things would've worked out had he not traded up and instead stayed where he was. On balance, he seems to have nailed the first 4 picks. Looking at this another way: How many here have been crucifying Douglas for taking Mims and not taking a better WR? He actually traded back, and didn't trade up to where he could've gotten a better prospect. The point is, it's not the trading up or trading back that's bad, it's the execution.
What you say is true, IF...you hit on those picks. And that means that the players that are available for you to take are a fit for your team, which isn't always a given. There are too many variables to be able to say "Well if he had stayed put, he would've had Player A". We can't know that, nor can we know that Player A would be a fit for the team. Look at Becton: if Saleh had been the HC in 2020, I doubt JD would've taken him given the zone blocking scheme they now use.
Not really my point, but yes they did get some picks out of it because of this league's inflated QB draft value. Had they never made a trade, which never would've happened, I'm sure they take Nelson at 3 because he was their guy. AVT has played 12 games so I'm sorry but he hasn't had a chance to be a perennial all pro. There's a good chance he becomes one next year. You keep harping on these 2 3rd round picks but you're also complaining that "JD is a terrible team builder", which how anyone can come to that result so far is amazing to me with what he was given and how long he's had. Since you think he sucks so much do you actually think those 2 picks would've been any good? You're just finding a reason to complain about JD. He slightly overpaid to get a top talent at guard. The horror. With your comments I'm supposed to believe he wouldn't have drafted anything good at 66 and 86 anyway, so at least we got an NFL starting player.
I wouldn't trust a site that uses mostly fans to gather its numbers in the first place over a site full of fans that watch the games with investment. I think PFF is lazy and grabbed respect just by being owned by Cris Collinsworth but the same inconsistent data that plagued that site a decade ago is still there. People use it when it suits their purposes and bash it when it doesn't.
Regarding the bold - The NFL is extremely competitive. Seemingly small, suboptimal moves compound pretty quickly. Trading up for AVT wasn't bad per se, but I don't think it was the most optimal thing to do given how many holes we had on the OL. The NFL is so competitive that even if you do everything right you might still fail. You're a lot more likely to fail when you start doing lots of suboptimal things. Because of the AVT trade up, we'll likely have to draft OL early again this year. That means another year of not drafting an edge, CB, S, LB, TE or WR early. Not replacing GVR prior to the start of the season also had a notably bad impact on Wilson's development. These seem like small missteps but the ripple effects of them can be very big.
I get it that an extra pick in the draft would have been useful to the team. However, everyone's talking hypotheticals and could have done this and done that with the power of hindsight. We had the capital to move about and we went and got player we felt would be a stud for years to come. We go on about GVR and I fully feel that if anyone knew how bad this fool would be, he wouldn't even made it past the off season. Sent from my M2007J20CG using Tapatalk
Do we really need to draft OL early again? Becton should be back, and Fant will move over and we can still resign Moses. Maybe Douglas signs a RG in FA. After this historically bad defense, I suspect we're gonna be going defense with most of those picks in the 1st 3 rounds. If we're talking ripple effects, what if we didn't have AVT? There most likely would've been a lesser player there which could impact Wilson just as bad as GVR did. We drafted a NFL starter. Good chance he could be an All-Pro player at some point. And we're worried about 2 3rd round picks that may or may not have become NFL starters. As someone else pointed out, we still had more picks than most teams last year. It's not like we had 4 picks and we traded half of them.
Becton is suspect right now because of weight and injury history. Fant is probably solid but nothing special at LT. Moses is 31 next season. McGovern is 29. RG right now is a hole. You can make a really good argument that the Jets 2023 line has 3 or 4 holes in it.
Not necessarily, they could, but not they don't have to. Free agency does exist and the Jets realistically only need to fill one starting guard spot. OT: Becton and Fant, I'd probably try to move Becton to RT as Fant has been very good at LT. They should re-sign Moses. IOL: AVT/McGovern/Unknown RG As for TE, there are a ton of solid FAs available to sign. O.J. Howard, Dalton Shultz, David Njoku, Hayden Hurst, and Mike Gesicki to name a few. So let's just go with your scenario and say the Jets have to take an IOL with one of the two 2nd rounders. That leaves them with 3 top 50 picks to address edge, CB, S, LB, TE, and WR. They should absolutely be singing one of the free agent TE listed above, which leaves the Jets with 3 picks in the top 50 to address Edge, CB, WR, off-ball LB, and safety. The Jets need run stuffing linebackers, rounds 3 and 4 are practically built for that. So the Jets can use those 3 top 50 picks to address CB, edge, WR, and safety after taking an IOL. I don't know about you, but taking an IOL with one of those seconds isn't the end of the world to me. As a final note, it is IMPOSSIBLE to address every hole in a single offseason and it is near impossible to have ZERO flaws on a football team.
I think Moses has done well enough for himself that he'll seek a contender that needs a vet tackle, hell maybe even in a backup role. That is if the Jets don't opt to throw too much money at him in order to keep some stability. Becton may be gone but we really only have glimpses of the whole story so we're really basing that on assumptions. McGovern is only going somewhere if that Seattle pick drops into an acceptable area to draft Linderbaum, but I'm in the same boat as Max, it's a scary thought to have a rookie center in front of Zach Wilson next season. RG isn't a huge question mark, and I'm assuming LDT isn't the guy for their future plans so I can see that one being a new starter. Fant and LDT both under contract for next season. I think it's between a possible 2 and 4 new starters next season but I think realistically close to 2.
