@REVISion is comparing Wilson's projection to Herbert's actual NFL performance, whereas you're comparing Wilson's projection to Herbert's old projection. Two different comparisons.
Some quite generous yardage stats in these predictions. I think completion percentage will be high and INTs low but I think yardage will be low too. I’m expecting a lot of ground n’ pound and short yardage situations. The training wheels will only come off in garbage time.
It's nearly a complete outlier in the data set I linked. I'm still with Luck. 2-14 to 11-5 and they beat three playoff teams to get to that point. RG3 was sick though.
If he plays anything like he did in college, I expect the INTs total to be high. If they simply try to have him manage the games, then I can see it being low along with everything else though.
Many of the passes he threw in college would be interceptions in the NFL, but he seems to learn fast. I predict he'll improve over the course of the season.
He'll modify his choices, which may mean making higher probability throws for less yardage or throwing the ball away or tucking the ball away and running. Or it may just mean modifying the throw itself. The bottom line is that Jets management judged that he has the raw skills to be an NFL QB and the intelligence and drive to learn to modify his game to be successful at the next level.
I can't really make Year 1 projections for Zach Wilson because we don't know so many factors and variables at the moment. I just hope he has a solid season. With 17 games , I think something like 30 touchdowns and 15 interceptions is possible. 4,000 yards too. If he does something like that, fans will be delighted.
I don't care about stats.. I just want him to not shit the bed, look competent, and show he belongs. Otherwise, SOJ. Hoping to turn the page on the SOJ mantra at this point.
I agree with all your predictions except for yards. I believe he can reach the 4000 mark, (235 yards per game). He is a big play QB, not a dink & dunk & he has a good receiver corp. I can easily see him average 235-250 yards per game. I can see E. Moore having a 1100 yard year..(65 yards per game) & 7 TD's. This would be a nice start for the 2 rookies. The key to all these stats is staying healthy for all 17 games.
