No chance at all. That's why you make them. So that 15 of them *do* make the roster. If you trade a bunch of them to move up, well you'll have 10 or 11 make the roster. If just simple reductionist math. Some of your picks are going to fail very quickly. So you make as many of them as you can to have more work out and make the roster.
You make as many picks as you can so that as many good young players make your roster as possible. No, there's no chance at all that 21 picks make the roster. However you're going to have some of your picks fail almost immediately to the practice squad and you're going to have others who get hurt or just don't make the grade. If you want a huge wave of young players to remake the roster with you have to make a lot of picks. This was a 2-14 team last year. If 21 players can't at least threaten to make the roster you're drafting very poorly. The current occupants of the bottom 21 spots on the Jets roster and practice squad are marginal to non-NFL players as it is. I'd make every pick the Jets have accumulated for the next two years and let them try to push the trash off the roster.
To add to my point. 10 of those 21 picks will be in rounds 1-3 and should be assumed to make the roster for the next 2 years. That leaves 11 picks I. Rounds 4-7 fighting for spots. Sorry but using a 5-7 to increase the value of a 2nd or 3rd is just smart money. You want to throw a dollar at a scratcher, I’ll put $5 on black and take the better odds.
I love this approach. And don't forget the $ saved when cutting Lewis and/or Van Roten if we manage to pull this off. There are plenty of free agents still available that can help us this season and even more that will become available after the draft once teams plug holes and start making additional cuts.
damien woody had a great point. we have 21 picks in the next 2 drafts and they all ain't making the team. trading some late to mid rounders to move up and get the guys we want makes a lot of sense. out 2nd rounder could be moved up into a 1st or our 3rd into a 2nd depending who falls.
I agree...it’s like when Idzik used all 14 picks...that’s typically too many to make the roster, so that’s when you either (a) trade back for future year picks (the Pats do this a lot), or (b) package a couple and trade up for a better player who would have a better shot at making the roster depending on how good the team is, you may only have 9 or 10 draft picks make the team...so that’s when you need to maximize the picks values
You're still going to fail on some of the trade up picks, even if you can't admit it after you make the trades up since so much more value is involved. Just make all the picks. If 9 or 10 people are going to make team you are more likely to have 9 or 10 good people make the team if you picked 11 times than if you picked actually 9 or 10 times. Nobody is smart enough to know who is going to fail - that's basically random with some observer's bias built in.
That’s the beauty of having that many picks if someone falls that you like you can try to go up and get him. I can’t see moving back into the 1st but I could definitely see moving back into the 2nd
not that it's realistic but i've been doing a alot of mock drafts and there is a lot of value in rounds 2-4. trading down with 23OA and 34OA and stockpiling picks then trading up for more 2nds and 3rds seemed to work best for me. some 2nd rounders I got are asante samuel, wyatt davis and 3rd rounder like pete werner, dwayne eskridge, walker little, jalen mayfield. could get like 4-5 of those guys. it'll be interesting to see what JD does
I can see us moving around the board from 23 onwards, get the targets you want. Got to think that we also have the UDFA class to bring in too, and there's usually a couple that make a roster, and as always will hope 1-2 make the grade this year too. Could be a FB for example. Who knows but I would be happy to walk away with 10 players in the draft. Sent from my M2007J20CG using Tapatalk
Picks are the currency of the NFL. Thinking you have too many picks is like thinking you have too much money.
picks are currency but players are assets. if mahomes cost 100 and you have 100 dollars only would you spend it on mahomes or buy 10 players for 10 bucks? it's all a balancing act of using the currency to get the most for your money. "overspending" only is bad when it doesn't work out
