Really I'm done with mocks because they are a lot of smoke at this point. I want this "mock" to focus more on the big questions on this overall draft. So many teams have a lot of options and hard choices that will change their fortunes one way or another. There are more touted QBs then I can remember, and more blue chip players then usual. This is going to be the most interesting draft in a long time. We all know the QBs at this point. So before we start I'll list the other players I feel are blue chips: Kyle Pitts (TE) Jamaar Chase (WR) Devonta Smith (WR) Jaylen Waddle (WR) Penei Sewelll (OT) Patrick Surtain II (CB) Micah Parson (LB) That's my blue chip cutoff. Yes there are still a ton of quality players that are just below blue chip ranking, and maybe your list is bigger. But I wonder the most about where these guys will land. Lets start. Picks 1 & 2 are pretty straight forward. They are exciting for us because they both impact us. I mean, if we start out with the Jags passing on Lawrence,...hah! Not likely though. So I'll pick up at #3. 3. Forty Niners. Who did they give up all that capital for? I'm dying to find out. Jones, Fields, Lance....really Lance? It will be a fun pick. To be safe I gotta go with: JUSTIN FIELDS 4. Falcons. Still the biggest mystery of the draft. Nobody knows what they are thinking. That alone makes this pick fascinating. Will they groom a new QB - and if so, which one? Do they want Pitts? They really need DL help - would they pick DL that high? The whole draft is wide open to them. But I think they will either go QB or trade down to someone who wants to go QB. My pick: MAC JONES 5. Bengals. Here is where things really get interesting. Everyone knows its all about helping Burrow and the projection are about 50/50 Chase or Sewell. Chase makes sense because his big year was with Burrow so they have chemistry. But they MUST protect Burrow. Considering Burrow probably wont even be ready to come back by opening day I gotta believe they go the protection route. My pick: PENAI SEWELL 6. Dolphins. Even if the Bengals take Chase the dolphins still have a hard choice. Sewell would be a great fit for them. But since I have him going to CInn. their choice will likely be for a big time WR. Most analysts have them going Chase. I don't believe that at all. They will go Smith or Waddle, both guys that helped Tua look good in the past. Plus they have worked this draft so intelligently that their pick is almost certainly going to be: DEVONTA SMITH 7. Lions. This is a bit of a mystery but we do know that the Lions also need some help at WR with Geoff coming in. Otherwise I think Parsons would have been their pick. Pitts and Waddle will both be tempting. IMO I think they will choose: JAYLEN WADDLE 8. Panthers. Will the Panthers help Sam in a way that we didn't? Yep, and I think they take the first non blue chip/QB of the draft. Their pick: RASHAWN SLATER 9. Broncos. They could go QB, but I think they wont be able to pass up: KYLE PITTS 10. Cowboys. While there are sill some blue chips on the board I think the cowboys look to protect Precott even more this season. In my most controversial pick I think they go with: ALIJA VERA TUCKER That would leave both defensive blue chips, Surtain and Parsons, still on the board. IMO defensive studs are going to fall and I think it will be too tempting at 23 to not to take a CB/DE. Either way, the drama of this draft is going to be great and I cant wait to see where everyone lands - and what trades happen that we didn't expect. Grab the popcorn guys because this is going to be a heck of a first round.
I could really see the Falcons going with Lance at 4. They have Matt Ryan under contract for a few more years but I believe they could get out from it with a negligible hit after 2021 so I could see them swinging for the fences with this pick.
I see the falcons taking Pitts, brees out of New Orleans, panthers a meh team and Tom Brady having to reach the cliff eventually, falcons have to think they can be a player for the division.
Yep. Because JD is JD I actually have no inkling of what the Jets are going to do outside of the media speculation on Wilson. However I think a lot of the rest of your list is pretty good. If not for the year off due to opting out I think Sewell and Chase would be the 2nd and 3rd picks in the draft with the QB's resuming at 4 or a bit later. Also I think Trey Lance is much too high in the media projections. His program opted out, limiting his play last year and he only has one season to go on. If that's enough to go high in the NFL draft then really people should just be throwing darts at a board to make their picks.
I could see the falcons trading down with Denver to do that. I'm not sure they would take him at 4 with all the blue chips available and they really need defensive help. But maybe they would?
The restructure leaves Ryan with $40.525 million as dead money in 2022 and $15,612,500 in dead money in 2023. I don’t see it I don’t see drafting a QB at #4 and having him sit 2 years. I don’t see eating $40 mm in dead cap space.
The Falcons are probably the one team that could draft Lance and sit him for two years. The question is whether they really want to do that when they could give Ryan a great weapon to work with over the next couple of years?
I would say no to both of those questions. The new HC is supposed to be an “establish the run” kind of guy so another weapon doesn’t add too much value IMO. Plus if you look at their MO, it’s losing leads. I have them trading back at least once and taking Surtain ||. They took a CB at the end of the first recently but it’s still their weakest group. Drafting a top CB will also help minimize their cap nightmare.
