So, the general question is how far can the guy throw from a set stance, with the usual one step up? Guys that can throw 60+ yards from the pocket from a set stance and not just rainbow the ball are few and far between. On the throw in question Wilson retreated from his 41 to the 35 and then took a running start and released the ball from the 37-38 yard line. There are a lot of people who can do that and do it better than throwing into a cloud of defenders at the 1 and getting picked. That ball should have been up for grabs in the endzone where the two receivers were waiting. Now, I'm not saying Wilson doesn't have a good arm. Just that the throw he made was nothing special given the way it was made and where it wound up.
Yes, QB's are slightly more likely to bust than other positions. However, QB's are also multiples more important to wins and losses than any other position.
The number 2 pick is usually for getting the best non QB in the draft. They are usually guys that become top players at their positions and center pieces to build a championship core. The second pick is a better player then the Jets have had on their roster in a long time. Think Nick Bosa, Saquon Barkley, and Chase Young, just over the last three seasons. But this draft has been way different. Everyone went QB crazy and now the best non QB could fall as far as 5. Its hard to point to another draft where swapping the 2nd pick carried so much value while still offering the potential to get a blue chip player. Heck, the third pick got 3 firsts and a third for a swap. Imagine what we could have gotten. The fact that our 2-14, rebuilding asses, passed that up...again, I struggle to find any other adjective for it then stupid. But to be polite I'll just call it "super risky".
I was obviously referencing Russell because his arm strength was his PRIMARY selling point, but even if he hadn't been drowning in "purple drank" he still would have failed because he did not have the mental acuity to process everything a successful QB needs to be able to process in the limited time allotted to them.....(reading defense, pre and post snap, going through progressions rapidly, etc.) Same thing with Michael Vick. If you want me to name other guys who had "big arms" who were drafted early who failed bc they didn't have much else going for them aside from being "strong athletic dudes who could heave a football", here are some more and none of them were addicted to purple drank or fat: Kyle Boller, Ryan Leaf, Dan McGuire, Heath Shuler, Akili Smith, et. al.
Even if Barkley gets healthy again, as a running back, he isn't that valuable. And Bosa and Young, while very good players, aren't game changers the same way a top QB is.
^^^Well-said, CC. I couldn't have said it any better myself. I have often had the same exact thoughts regarding why NFL teams have such difficulty scouting the QB position, right down to your comment about why, with all of the technology available to the human species in the year 2021, nobody has come up with some sort of virtual reality/simulator which can really put these guys to the test and at least begin to reveal their ability (or lack thereof) to rapidly process information from a defense, and make the correct decision more often than not in the limited amount of time allotted to them post-snap.
QBs are game changers when they throw INTs. You can get a QB anywhere. You cant get a Bosa, Barkley, Young, or Devonta Smith anywhere. Top skill players go early for a reason. Just never to the Jets. Top skill players contain the least amount of risk.
Rosen, Kolb, Beck, Leinart, your favorite McNown failed too. What does that have to do with the QBs in this class?
Not slightly more likely to bust. Not when they are taken up high and another QB went right before them. That's called QB fever and it happens when a particularly good prospect that nobody but #1 pick has access to is available and several other QB's have been compared to them over the course of the evaluation process. It happens when several teams need QB's and so all the QB's in the process are being over-evaluated by staffs with questionable capabilities to actually evaluate QB's. That kind of pick has a very high bust potential compared to other high picks. This would be obvious if we were talking about any other position. If two LT's went right in a row at the start of the draft with one of them being compared to all-time greats and the other being compared to him? Well the second LT was likely way over-drafted and is more likely to bust. However a LT bust may wind up at RT or LG eventually and mitigate the bust potential. This draft cycle did not start as a strong draft cycle for QB's. The only real name out there as of a year ago was Trevor Lawrence. Then the pandemic screwed everything up for everybody. Suddenly with not enough information to go on and no combine physicals and no in-person interviews the evaluation process changed. Things like experience and injury history got reduced in importance, not because they were actually less important but because the teams had less access to that information than they usually do. Now at the end of the process it appears as though the Jets will wind up with a QB who has both an injury history and who was not a cinch to be his college team's starter at the beginning of last season. They will wind up with a player who they likely have not been able to fully evaluate in terms of his surgically repaired right shoulder and unknown status left shoulder as well as the right hand he broke in 2019. They will wind up with a player who does not appear on the face of it to have an NFL-ready body. Welcome to the NFL kid, which is what the first 300lb defensive lineman who lands on him will likely say, is going to be a major shock to him.
so your picking the guy with less concerns over the one with more talent? that's fine we've all done it before but if that's your stance you should say that instead of making things up to smear campaign other prospects. fields also doesn't have close to elite arm strength he has average NFL starting QB arm strength. wilson has above average but not elite. I'd love to see these so called 60-65 yard bombs he did regularly. very rarely do QBs make throws of that distance. less then 1% of their passes. why pick a guy who supposedly can do 1% really good and ignore the 99%? makes no logical sense. russel, boller, cutler, hell even hackenberg has a cannon. doens't make them good.
Is there a QB alter somewhere on this site that I don't know about - and is it surrounded by pictures of Joe Nameth and Zack Wilson?
Good to know after the last 20 years of being a Jets fan that you can get a QB anywhere. That's news to me. Also nice subtle Devonta Smith troll job. Not subtle enough to be a game changing troll job though.
I think you have it the other way around. Top QB's, with some exceptions, tend to be 1st rounders while skill position players can be found on day 2. Wilson, Prescott, and Brady are the exceptions. Meanwhile, there are lots of RB's, WR's, and TE's who were taken on day 2 and have become stars.
wilson is preferred here obviously but it's far from worship. all the wilson supporters seem to be pretty reasonable recognizing his flaws along with the good. it's the fields supporters that have been the "religeous fanatctis" and resorted to name calling, trolling, and personal attacks and got the thread locked yesterday
I do see your point, but there are no QBs in this class who are closer to Mahomes than Wilson. And when can we expect another "Mahomes" to become available? Not any time soon because he truly is "generational". When you made me aware of him in 2016 I saw that and was - and still am - so pissed that Maccagnan passed on him, so I am well aware that Wilson is not as good as that, BUT, he's as close as I've seen. If you're concerned about his shoulder, what more proof do you need beyond what he did this past season after a year+ of healing? If it was his rotator cuff, I too would be concerned - although with what they've been able to do with Tommy John surgery even that's not the issue it once was. I think the "shoulder issue" is a red herring. I don't understand your concern about Wilson's decision making. I'd say that's one of his strengths, although by that I'm saying he doesn't make mistakes, but he makes plays and moves his team down the field consistently. Mahomes wasn't - and still isn't - flawless. Guys who gamble like he does are going to make mistakes, but they more than make up for that with the big plays their gambling enables. I know none of my counterpoints will change you mind, as you said it's your opinion, as mine is mine, but I did want to answer them with an alternative POV.
The two best QBs since I've been a Jet fan were both drafted 16th or later. Not 3rd, not 6th, and probably not 2nd.
Evidence? Here's one source that reinforces my claim: https://bleacherreport.com/articles...e-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft There is another study I can't locate at the moment which had similar conclusions. When you combine this bust rate with the fact that QB's are literally 3-4X more important than any other position it's a no brainer to take the best QB you can as early as you can. The bust rate of picking any position increases with every subsequent pick.
