10%-15% is probably high for a non-#1 QB becoming a FQB. If it wasn't, then Pennington would be our FQB. And if not Penny, then Nacho. And if not Nacho, then Geno. If not Geno, the Hack. And if not Hack, then Sam. And if not Sam, then.......you get the point. It's very (very) rare for ANY QB becoming a FQB, especially when not taken #1.
The people hyping Trevor Lawrence as a better QB prospect than Patrick Mahomes will have egg all over their faces very soon.
Again I think many of you are conflating prospect grades with career projection. I don’t grade Trevor higher than Mahomes coming out but I can see why many have an extremely high grade on him. He checks a ton of boxes. Doesn’t mean his career will be better than Mahomes.
I understand. But we drafted them as a QB to become a QB. The later a team takes a QB, the more the pick generally has to sit and learn b/4 being tossed into the fire. No team drafts a QB w/o seeing something they think could be 'special'. But it almost never works out, no matter where the dude was drafted. Being drafted early just means the team is under pressure to give that guy everything they can to make it work out sooner rather than later. Picked later the team can let the dude sit and learn out of the lime light (James Morgan for example). But the the expectations are the same regardless of where they were drafted: We see something in this guy who could become 'special'. Unfortunately, it almost never works out.
I think it's the opposite. The class of 2018 surprised me actually thus far. I thought Mayfield would bust, he has turned decent. I thought the only QB who had elite potential was Josh Allen but Lamar Jackson has shown more than I thought he would. Rosen, Darnold are underwhelming based on their hype but let's be honest they had major question marks about them too. The question mark regarding Lawrence, Fields, Wilson and Lance are mostly related to experience and level of competition not talent. I think this year class has way better talent but with less experience. I mean Fields, Lawrence, Wilson, Lance all have elite arms, accuracy and they are mobile. Is it possible they turn into bust? Maybe but they have the tools and I am way more excited about this draft class than I was in 2018.
That sounds like excuses already being made. If Mahomes was drafted by the Bengals he wouldn't have won a Super Bowl in the first 2 years but his ridiculous talent would have them in every game. Recall Mahomes 1st year starting he had no defense. Didn't matter, he was a coin flip in OT from going to the Super Bowl anyway. If you believe he's generational then he needs to be better than guys drafted less than 5 years ago. Unless a generation is now 2 or 3 years...
Mahomes is amazing but it is crazy to believe that you can easily find Mahomes in every draft. I could see Lawrence turn into a similar player as Manning does that make him a bust or under your expectations? Like 60,000+ yards, 500TD+ and 1 Superbowl
There isn't a Peyton Manning every draft either. Lawrence doesn't have the vision, anticipation, or poise of a P Manning. Burrow was the guy if you wanted those high mental traits, processing.
Mahomes didn’t win the Super Bowl by himself. It’s a moot point. Bottom line is that if he was drafted my the Bengals, he’s still be good. That’s all you can ask of your QB.
The only person that can be blamed if he flops is himself. Not sure why you're so defensive against people making excuses when I haven't seen anyone do so. He's the best prospect in a long while. He's not quite at the Manning/Luck level in my mind because both of those players had more exposure to running their given offenses at the LOS in college and demonstrated the ability to audible and align the offense correctly. But he's right below.
Size and accuracy. I mean when you see him throw he hits players in stride and right in the facemask. Not to mention his floor in my eyes is 2019 Josh Allen. He's a better runner than everyone gives him credit for because he has good vision. He needs to protect himself. Not to mention the experience and somewhat unmeasurable it factor.
So did Brock Osweiler and Mike Glennon also rate as having elite size? I think of larger size as having an impact on utility of athleticism but not as a QB trait in itself. I think Trevor has the nicest deep ball in this class, but he doesn't really jump out as elite in ball placement. Wilson is better. So was Burrow.
I guess but those two were statues. I should've stated it as elite size and athleticism paired with it. Burrow certainly had elite ball placement but his arm was weaker on zing throws outside the numbers. Lawrence has a cannon but I guess I dial it back from being elite because I don't think it's as strong as the Allen/Mahomes class.
If he's not as good as Mahomes then what's the point in drafting him since he'll lose the big one to Mahomes anyway? If your answer is "He can still win if he's on the better team", then maybe we should use #2 on team building and just go with Morgan?
Right on. I guess I view this as splitting hairs In reality with some of these guys. It's different times. Covid impacted a lot of things that way as well. I think that big game experience Is valid too, which should be part of that process In my mind. I think for me. For me. I'm more worried about Zach Wilson's experience than I am Mac Jones or Justin Fields. Just based on competition alone. That's a bigger issue for me personally. I get what you are saying though. I mean. Justin Fields started like 25-26 games, played In more. It's not a concern for me personally.
