Is Lawrence REALLY the best QB prospect this year?

You keep bringing up numbers and if you're using that as a barometer he's on par with all of them.

He threw for more yards, touchdowns and less interceptions while only a 0.4% below Luck in career completion percentage. 1,200 less yards than Peyton but he played one less season and still threw for more touchdowns. I won't compare Elway because he was from a different era but he beats him in all categories as well. And he ran for nine less yards than Luck. His measurable are all equal except for slightly under their weights.

What numbers are you using?

I don't think he's on par with any of the three although he's right below as a prospect. But I don't get what numbers you keep referencing? He also has a trophy, which none of those three had.

 

Those names are not projections on his ceiling but comp grades as prospects coming out. That’s a huge difference.

 

For people who are using the big arm as a litmus test.

That's being on the Ryan Leaf train in 1998. Leaf had a much better arm than Peyton.

A great arm is indeed a great attribute however it is one of many and frequently the guy with the great arm is not as good as the guy with the better rounded package, including having what it takes upstairs to be an exceptional QB.

 

Yes, he gets credit for the game against Alabama. But Clemson was keeping things super simple for him and their overall coaching just had Alabama dead to rights.

Yes, that LSU team offense was awesome. So was their QB. Lawrence was just bad though, he didn't make enough plays. Burrow was absolutely special. He looked like everything was in slow motion, he was killing people.

Ohio State. Again, there was a nervousness here. You want your QB to elevate your team in these moments.

In the end, what makes NFL qbs elite are how they find your weaknesses and then rip your heart out.

Lawrence doesn't exploit a defense like a Mahomes, Joe Burrow, or Kyler Murray.

He will be an NFL starter but I don't think he's special.

 

Do you have Luck, Elway and Manning's PFF numbers to compare? They've been recording full NCAAF grades for six years and they're nonsensical anyways. It's not a metric. It's subjective grading by a bunch of guys that make $18 an hour based on what they see and deem good plays or bad plays.

PFF has done a wonderful job marketing it as a metric and keep coming up with these new ones to fill their database up.

"True career dropback passing"

 

ESPN already making excuses?!

Well, he is a great prospect but if it doesn't happen...

 

Regarding Fields, I wasn't talking about his playing time; I was talking about his supporting cast. Lawrence's best teammate was Travis Etienne, who's very good but is a running back, so there's only so much he can help Lawrence out. Lawrence's top receivers were Amari Rodgers and Cornell Powell, who are probably Day 3 picks, and he had a decent left tackle in Jackson Carman, who's probably a Day 2 pick. Wide receiver Justyn Ross could be a first rounder in 2022, but he missed the 2020 season, so he was of no help to Lawrence. Whereas Fields had Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave to throw to, who are likely first rounders in 2022. He also had a pair of Day 2 picks on his offensive line in Wyatt Davis and Josh Myers, and his left tackle Thayer Munford is also an NFL talent, albeit probably a Day 3 pick in 2022.

 

lawrence starting 10+ games while winning the title >>> tua starting one half

 

This QB class is definitely over-rated.

I'd say Lawrence is maybe 33% All-Pro/Pro Bowl caliber, 33% good starter, 33% bust. It's possible that's a bit optimistic but I'm not going to look at that spread in a few years and say "how could I have been so wrong about him?"

However the other guys in the class are way below that level. They all have something good about them but a huge number of question marks and an easy for a bad team to ruin quality about them.

Zach Wilson is a one year wonder in which the one year was a year in which the pandemic created competitive imbalances all over the place, particularly in second class powers like BYU's scheduling and overall strength of competition. Wilson wasn't highly rated coming into the year because he did not have a good body of work at the college level. One great season doesn't fix any of the questions about him - it just opens up more questions.

Justin Fields is a great talent with not enough experience to make the sale and some major questions about attitude and translation of skills coming in the door. He has lost the most of all the major prospects to the quirks of the pandemic and he would have been well-advised to remain in school for another year and prove his worth as a top pick. He is the player most likely to be ruined by getting put on the field early by an organization that has no plan for his success and is looking just to market a fresh QB. He's the guy who if you gave him to Andy Reid he might turn out to be great but Reid has already done that just a few years ago and that door is closed to Field. The organization most likely to take him high and get something out of him is probably the 49ers. We'll have to stay tuned to see if they are blowing smoke about Mac Jones.

The other two guys are just a joke as 1st round picks. Any QB can work out but spending a 1st round pick on Mac Jones because he's a competent QB is laughable. Trey Lance has ONE year of play at the college level and it was in a joke conference against inferior competition. He might be a late 1st/early 2nd kind of guy but you have to be projecting him to be at the top of his range to make that pick and then you better be right.

 

What QB class has ever had 1 or more prospects with no question marks? Seems to me every QB prospect since the dawn of football has had question marks. If they didn’t, there would be no need for scouts.

 

Eh .. If we take Wilson .. Not gonna lie .. It's gonna take me at least 2 years to warm up to him .. I have been major wrong with QB's before so .. let's roll ..

 

The question marks are really big this year for a supposed prime QB class.

The biggest ones are all about experience and those tend to be the questions that cause the most anxiety after the fact.

 

I agree with Brad .. Based off this Covid season . which Trevor caught ..

 

I just have this feeling that 2018 class of Allen, Darnold, Jackson , and Mayfield in 10-12 years from now will be looked at as the better class over Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance and Mac.
One of those 5 will be the Josh Rosen, I’d bet on Lance.

Other than the QB who lands in SF, I would be surprised if any of them looked better than Sam in Carolina next year.

 

Lawrence does look the part. He is on a team that is almost always superior to the opponent.

But when his team doesn't have the advantage...

Wilson, Lance, and Fields all grade higher for me in poise or when stressed.

I put more importance on those plays than others because those plays tell me what you are as a QB.

Poise under pressure translates.

All the Qbs that have hit recently have it.

Dak
Mahomes
Watson
Etc

 

Athleticism is on par with Luck and similar arm. Luck was a bit thicker Trevor a bit taller and they both were very intelligent with off the charts instincts and most of all the ability to make players around them better. That for me is my all time favourite trait and all the GREAT QBs have it.

Peyton was the the master at this he was the smartest QB I’ve ever seen on the field. He knew what defences were doing most of the time. The guy was a wizard. But coming out a lot of pundits had Leaf ahead of Manning which I laughed at but nonetheless that’s what happened. Crazy.

Elway on the other hand way the perfect QB in pretty much every way the dude had everything. Prototypical Size, incredible arm strength, athleticism, accuracy in and out the pocket, made players better, pocket presence, QB IQ etc etc he was truly the best prospect of all time. I doubt there will be another of that ilk coming out. Trevor, Luck, Manning and even Aikman are all in that similar conversation in my opinion

 

What do you mean experience?

What classifies as enough experience heading into the NFL draft to you? How do you gauge that exactly?

 

It changes from era to era but generally speaking about 30 starts over 3 seasons is what you need to be considered qualified to be a high draft pick at QB in the NFL draft.

In earlier eras people wanted Seniors who had started 30+ games and graduated as their future leaders. These days Juniors who have 30+ starts, like Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes hit the mark to be a high pick.

Of the QB's in consideration as high picks this year three do not hit that mark, those being Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Trey Lance. Another who hits the mark, Zach Wilson, lands on it squarely and before the pandemic season had not started a full season. He was in a 3-way competition to be the starting QB last year at the beginning of the year.

That's what I mean by inexperienced.

 

Lawrence is the best QB prospect of the 2021 draft. No doubt about it. Zach Wilson is getting a lot of hype, and as Jets fans we hope he lives up to it, but the edge goes to Lawrence. He is healthier, comes from a bigger school, won a national championship, has better size, and is already a star before he even puts on an NFL hat. That is big for any franchise picking #1 overall.