I'd say more than 50% and a lot higher than those for any of the other QB's. I also think the odds are 50/50 there is no franchise QB in this draft.
The Peyton comparison is a good one as is the reminder that Peyton was kind of unique in his approach to the game.
There are 5 prospective first rounders. If we conservatively assume nobody else will be a franchise QB, which is far from certain, that means the odds for each of the 5 QBs of being a franchise QB would have to be in the 10-15% range in order for the odds to be 50% that there's no franchise QB in this draft. That seems awfully low; first rounders, especially those taken in the top 10, have a better success rate than that.
I think there are maybe 3 QB's that should go in the 1st round. Mac Jones and Trey Lance likely will go in the 1st round but they are the kind of picks that get GM's fired fairly predictably. Put another way: the only QB I see in this draft who would have gone ahead of Blake Bortles is Lawrence. Another factor that we're not discussing is how rare it is for multi-franchise QB drafts to happen in close proximity and we apparently had one 3 years ago in 2018. I'm still not sold on that being a multi-franchise QB draft but it has the look at this point 3 years out. I think the pandemic squeezed schedules and lowered competitiveness and a couple of guys are coming out way early and that has created the illusion that this is a deep draft when really it is 3 QB's deep at best.
This Is a no brainer. I would easily take TL over every other QB In this draft. TL has flaws, most rookie QB's do, nothing overly concerning though. He is special though. If he has what It takes between the ears, he's going to hurt a lot of teams In his career.
Lawrence's biggest potential flaw is his injury risk. Hopefully the Jags will create a flow for him that prevents him from taking a lot of hits and also does not force him into a ton of throws. If they put a Matthew Stafford load on him early he is not going to last much longer than Luck did.
I respect your opinion, but why is he "special"? What makes him so? Because based upon the numbers and measurements, he's behind Wilson and Fields and even Jones. I just don't see where he matches his P.R..
Based on the results so far, I'm a little surprised that the Fields supporters aren't sticking with their guy. Was all the justification and rationale used to argue Fields over Wilson applicable to placing Fields over Lawrence? IMO it does, so why no love for Justin now? The numbers seem to support Fields over Lawrence.
Lance can run, has a big arm, and can play under center. He is incredibly raw though. He's ideal for a team that has a QB for 2021 and doesn't need to rush him into action. The Falcons are one such team.
This is the easy question with yes being the obvious answer. It gets a bit tougher when comparing Wilson vs Fields.
I don't think It's about that. I know for me. I don't have a "My Guy" mentality. I want the best QB possible If that Is In fact what we chose to do. Obviously at this point, that's what we are going to do. It's not just about stats. It's about who will be the absolute best option for our team. I don't dislike Wilson because I like Fields. I don't dislike Fields because I like Lawrence more. There Isn't biased In this for a lot of us. At least not for me. I just want the best option for our team and through all my years of knowledge and study, I can conclude my preference based on that knowledge. Lawrence Is highly touted for a reason. I think that Fields Is closer than people realize, especially on this board, but, he Is not there for me overall. TL has the tools to be that generational talent. He is physically gifted, strong arm, athletic, great build, great In the pocket, smart, calm and collected, makes others better, etc.. There's a lot to like. A lot. I have some things that I don't like but the good far out weight the bad. His just as good of a pure passer to Andrew Luck from watching his tape, only Lawrence Is an even better athlete than Luck. There Is a reason why this kid has so much hype behind him. He's special because he carries so many positive traits that you would want from a QB. That potential would be absolutely foolish to pass on. Justin Fields Is special In his own right. IMO He doesn't have the same level of "completeness" as Trevor Lawrence though. I still fully believe they are 1a and 1b In this draft though. Without a doubt In my mind. We shall see.
Lawrence is seen as special because since his sophomore year in high school he has been seen as one of the best QB prospects of all time. That hype, when he was making things look easy in high school like so many before him, translated directly into him being the most recruited and highest rated QB prospect in 2016. His exploits at Clemson did nothing to cool the hype down and that's how you get from being a freshman high school QB prospect to being one of the best college prospects to being a great NFL prospect. Really he is very similar to Peyton Manning at this point in his career. The biggest difference is that Peyton finished his college career and came out as a 4 year starter.
Yes, you perfectly stated the reason for the immense hype. I'm a contrarian here though. Lawrence was a 5 star, Mahomes was a 3 star, Watson a 4 star, Russell Wilson 3 star. You know who else was a 5 star QB recruit? Hunter Johnson. He was supposed to be the next star at Clemson. No good. Turns out if NFL teams can't pick the best QB or often miss after years of college tape, why are we glued into high school star crap from a few years ago? But it is a tradition and you do get special hype if you were supposed to be special early.
I don’t get the 5 star recruit reference. Is Hunter Johnson in consideration for top 5 overall pick in the NFL draft? Not every 5 star recruit get to where Lawrence & Fields are now just like not every 3 star recruit get to where Wilson is now.
For the Jets, doesn't matter who is the "best" What matters is, whoever the jets draft is GOOD! The 2 really important positions are coach and QB. Hopefully, we have made great decisions on those 2 (no one really knows at this point), and the combo of off season moves and drafts over the next 2 years will see a complete reversal of Jet fortunes. For what its worth, I think the jets will draft Fields.
It is always part of the Lawrence sales pitch. 5 Star recruit, he was supposed to be incredible. Then he went Clemson and was the starting QB for the National Champions. Winner, all the older scouts love that. People have stopped looking under the hood since then, they were assured the car was a Lamborghini.
Well it's important to remember that not only did Lawrence get all the hype in high school but then he delivered on all that hype at Clemson. That's why he still has the hype.
