IDK if i've done this before but I've said it before. I'll start at 2018 since 2019 is too early to judge and go back the past 15 drafts. 2018 1st - mayfield best allen/jackson this is one debatable at this point whether allen or jackson would be the best but either way it's wasn't the 1st taken or even 2nd. it was the 3rd or 5th 2017 1st - trubisky best - mahomes in this case it was the 2nd QB taken who has become arguably the best QB in the NFL already and already won a SB and been to 2 2016 1st - goff best - prescott goff isn't a full bust but has been medicore. at one point it looked like wentz was the winner here but in the long run it turned out to be 4th rounder dak 2015 1st - winston best - NA this one I can't even. just an awful QB class. QBs were drafted at 1 and 2 with mariota and winston. after that 2 3rds, a 4th, a 5th, and a 7th. 7 in total. 4 are out of the league, siameian was the 7th rounder who had some success and started in spurts but is really just a career back-up. that leaves just the top 2 in winston and mariota and both have failed and were relegated to back-ups and not resigned off their rookie deals. I can't even name one since none were a sucess so i'll give this a NA 2014 1st - bortles best - carr bortles was taken 3rd overall and is now a back-up bounced around the league.the other 1st rounders were manziel who busted and teddy bridgewater who is a journeyman/borderline starting QB. the top from the class has been 2nd rounder derek carr who has played his entire career with the raiders and has been an above average player consistently but not a star. 2013 1st - ej manuel best - NA just an awful class where nobody was good 2012 1st - luck best - wilson This was a stacked QB class for sure. I know some may argue luck was the best but he retired at 30, never won a SB and while he was a great QB this class was so stacked I can't say he was the best. It has to go to 3rd round pick russell wilson who has won a SB and been a top QB in the NFL for the past 6ish years and is still playing at a high level while luck has been retired 2 years. Also in this class is 4th ronuder cousins who has been above average and made pro bowls, nick foles who bounced around but won a SB and has been good at times, ryan tannehill who had a bad start to his career but turned it around after being traded to tennesee. Overall this class produced 4 pro bowlers 2011 1st - cam newton best - cam newton Cam wins this kinda by default. wasn't a great class at all and he did win an MVP and make many pro bowls. outside of him there is dalton who had a solid career on a bad team, tyrod taylor who's bounced around but still in the NFL and will likely start this year for houston when watson gets suspended and kapernick who i won't get into 2010 1st - bradford best - bradford bradford also wins by default in a bad QB class. he was often injured and bounced around alot but a solid QB when he was on the field. outside of him nothign but busts 2009 1st - stafford best - stafford every other QB in this class was a bust, but stafford would win over many QBs. he's been a stud on a bad team his whole career. now he has a chance for a SB with the rams 2008 1st - matt ryan best - matt ryan flacco was in this class as well and won a SB but was mostly just an average QB. ryan has been matty ice for a long time and in the top tier of QBs most his career. easy choice. everyone else was a bust 2007 1st - jamarcus russell best - NA literally every QB in this class was a bust and there were 5 taken in the top 2 rounds and 11 taken overall 2006 1st - vince young best - jay cutler cutler wins by default but had a solid career and made some pro bowls. every other QB was a bust including the 2 taken ahead of him in young and lienhart. this was the year the jets needed a QB and took brick and mangold and people complained but really this was a great draft for the jets 2005 1st - alex smith best - aaron rodgers smith was a solid QB and is still playing but rodgers is one of the best in the NFL even now 15 years later. he just won MVP again. it's an easy choice. all the rest were busts except 7th rounder fitzpatrick who's made a good career as a journeyman and is still gonna start for yet another new team in 2021 2004 1st - eli manning best - ben roethlisberger this was a rare case where all top 3 Qbs panned out. all 3 made pro bowls at one point. 2 won SBs. all 3 had long careers. eli retired 2 years ago, rivers this past offseason. ben is still playing at a high level but not what he once was. I have to give the edge to ben here though as he is still playing, has the most pro bowls of the bunch, and tied for the most SB wins of the 3. All 3 teams wound up pretty happy though with who they got. What can we make of this? besides the fact the draft is a crapshoot, in the past 7 drafts the top QB taken hasn't been the best although in 2 of those years none have panned out. only 4 times did the top pick become the best and it was 4 years in a row (2008-2011) 3 years out of the 15 none of the QBs panned out
Good points, but they don't really matter. I would take each draft class as it's own and this specific class has a clear top QB in Trevor Lawrence. If you were picking #1, you would pick him. This class looks strong with Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones behind Lawrence, so there are better odds that one could be better than him in the end, but only time will tell. I wouldn't mind 2021 being like the 2004 or 2018 class where multiple star QB's are drafted. I wouldn't even mind if Lawrence is the best, as long as Wilson is really good for the Jets.
thats fair but eli and luck were also in the category and didn't turn out to be the best. both were in stacked classes too and both turned out to be good. this class looks pretty stacked as well. could be a case where 3 or 4 guys pan out but t-law isn't the best of them
Pretty cool stuff! I say we TGG make truce and shake hands to agree to trade down and select some Division III QB who is 5’9, that can read blitzes, can run over guys, a master of wishbone offense and has a cannon of arm.
At least we aren't drafting the 1st qb. Less pressure then Jax not visiting Wilson's pro day and then that kid proceeds to dominate while Trevor fizzles. QB position is like the lottery, wild guess everywhere. Need many things for it to click
But, but, but this can't be true as some posters here have claimed that there's very good/great QBs ever year in the draft.
Well need to look at like sixth round picks. Possibly for QB's like Montana and Brady naysayers have no hope. But look at them now.
i've posted these kind of things many times. if you're the type who enjoys getting depressed look at the QBs drafted in the 2 or 3 slot. no sure things
someone on reddit did it going further back https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/mn02bp/theres_roughly_a_36_chance_that_the_best_qb_in_a/ basically said 36% the 1st QB taken is the best one and they went back 30 years
I think Andrew Luck was still the best of that class. Even though Russell has a super bowl, it was more of the legion of boom that won the SB.
Both were obviously really good. Luck 7 years in the league (played 6, missed 1 due to injury) 4 pro bowls Wilsons 1st 7 years in the league 5 pro bowls Wilson is also still going strong, played in 2 Sbs and won 1 (luck won none) wilson has thrown 81 INTs in 144 games, luck threw 83 in 86 games wilson career QB rating 101.7 luck is 89.5 Luck won 61.6% of games, wilson won 68.5% Both are great QBs but the fact that wilson was better overall his whole career and is still a top QB while luck retired means wilson is the better pick regardless.
Fair enough. Especially from a statistical standpoint. But what do you think Wilson's career would have been like with the Colts? And what about Luck with the Hawks? I understand if that's not a fair question, because 'what if' scenarios are not factual. But I'm curious if things may have been more beneficial for Luck if he was with the Hawks vs Colts.
That's pretty good odds though. You are talking the 1st QB taken vs. the entire field. I bet if you did the same study with other positions it might not be as high as 36% for most
Saw a stat yesterday that was interesting: Of Super Bowl winning QB's, 18 of them were taken in the first round. All other rounds combined had 15 Super Bowl winning QB's.
And this is why a guy like Mac Jones is shooting up draft boards the closer we get. In no other sport is one position so important.
what if's are always hard but I will say this. the seahawks without wilson would suck. The colts the past 2 years without luck went 18-14 and a playoff birth with broken down rivers in his final year 1 year and career backup brissett 1 year. yes it's the 1st taken vs the rest of the field. just means while picking the 2nd QB doesn't mean they have a 64% chance to be the best, it just means the 1st one taken 2 out of 3 years isn't the top one and the top one comes later. could be the 2nd, could be the 3rd, could be the 4th etc etc to be fair brady skews it a lot since he has won 6 in the past 18 years by himself. unless that stat counts him as 1. SB winning QBs in the past 22 years not taken in the first include brady wilson foles brees brad johnson trent dilfer kurt warner thats 7 QBs who won a total of 13 of the past 22 SBs won by Qbs not taken in the 1st. again brady skews it a lot though
