My Take on 2021 QBs

Hello TGG!

Haven't been posting on here much as of late. I'm in dental school now so life has gotten a lot busier. Fortunately it hasn't gotten too busy for me not to watch dozens of hours of college QB film and write page long scouting reports for each

I know this is absurdly long and most people won't read it (I mainly put it together for my friends who I talk draft stuff with pretty much 24/7 and they're probably more interested in my opinions than you guys) but figured I'd throw it in here in case any of you are bored and want the opinion of an old poster.

I'm pretty much resigned to the Jets taking Wilson and I can live with it. Good fit for the offense and not many limitations as a player.

Without further ado...

 

1. Justin Fields, Ohio State

Grade/Projection: 9.4/10; Elite NFL starter

Strengths:

· Prototype height and build for the position

· Consistently elite accuracy to all three levels of the field and when throwing on the run

· High-end arm strength both in terms of downfield passing and in fitting ball into tight windows

· Dynamic runner for the position in terms of straight-line speed, power running, patience, and field awareness

· Has an understanding of when touch throwing is required and can layer the ball over/between defenders when necessary

· Willing to stand strong in a collapsing pocket and follows through throws even when faced with imminent heavy contact

o No accuracy decline when throwing from a condensed pocket/with defenders around feet

· Has toughness required to play position at the NFL level

o Had best game of career vs Clemson after suffering ribs/hip injuries; played in title game the next week

· Excellent decision maker who knows how to balance taking calculated risks with protecting the ball

Concerns:

· Plays with an overall lack of urgency

o Takes too long to get to the top of his drop

o Feet are slow to reset when progressing from first to second read

§ Only examples of inaccuracy on tape are when throwing to second/third read before feet are fully set

o Needs to eliminate first read more quickly (when indicated)

· Routinely waits to see receivers open despite occasional examples of anticipatory throws

o Partially attributable to option-route heavy offense?

· Slow to identify and respond to pressure

o Takes too many sacks that could have been avoided by feeling pressure early and manipulating the pocket accordingly

· Does not impress as much as expected on second reaction/improvisational passing plays given his athleticism

NFL Comparison: Dak Prescott

With similar physical tools, both players will protect the football and provide consistent accuracy paired with explosive plays as runners and downfield passers. However, both are relatively rigid passers who thrive most within structure, and are therefore much more effective from the pocket and on designed roll-outs than they are as improvisational passers breaking the pocket.

Overall:

Since developing an interest in watching college QBs (2015 class), I’ve seen players who are bigger than Fields, ones with stronger arms, ones more athletic, and (maybe) ones more accurate. However, I’m not sure I’ve seen one that marries all of those traits at the level Fields does. Typically, traits-based prospects have concerns in other areas (level of competition, production, accuracy, etc.) and common buzz-words for them include ‘raw’ or ‘project’. Fields is not only an elite traits-based prospect, but he already utilizes those traits at a high level against top college competition. On top of his on-field play, he demonstrates toughness and leadership (he was a driving force for the Big 10 even playing football in 2020) and seems to fit all the criteria of a franchise QB. He needs to speed up his game in general, but this can be said of virtually any QB entering the league. The only way I can envision Fields not succeeding as an NFL player is if his franchise fails to protect him adequately early in his career and irreparably hinders his development as a passer. Even then, his mobility provides an extra dimension for moving the ball and establishes a relatively high floor for any offense with him at the helm, especially since this running ability can mask the redzone deficiencies typically displayed by young passers.

 

2. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

Grade/Projection: 9.0/10; Top-10 NFL starter

Strengths:

· Extremely efficient processing speed

o Routinely progresses to second/third read early in the down

o Aware of where checkdown is on all plays

· Trusts eyes and throws with confidence and decisiveness, often right at the top of his drop without taking unnecessary hitches

· Throws with good anticipation, especially over the middle of the field and in the redzone

· Elite arm strength

· Very good touch thrower and understands how to layer the ball between zones/use variable ball speeds and trajectory to exploit leverage

· Good straight line speed to pick up chunk yardage as a scrambler

· Maintained a high level of play throughout all three seasons as a starter

· Good accuracy in the quick passing game

· Shows flashes of brilliance as an improvisational passer after leaving the pocket

· Consistent, repeatable throwing motion with a strong base

Concerns:

· Inconsistent accuracy in the intermediate/deep range

· Has a tendency to fade away from throws, especially when under heavy pressure

· Often oblivious to underneath defenders and will occasionally throw directly to them

· Tall/lanky frame sometimes leads to awkward throws when forced off of his spot

· Plays in an offense heavily reliant on screens that exploit talent disparity between receivers and ACC defensive backs

· Initial reaction to pressure is often to move away from the line of scrimmage instead of step up or drift towards space

· Thin frame relative to height

o Suffered torn labrum in college


NFL Comparison: Justin Herbert

This is a natural comparison given the similarities of the players’ physical profiles. Both players are more fluid as athletes than the typical quarterback of this size. Both come from college offenses that were screen-heavy resulting in stark disparities between what they were asked to do and what they’re capable of. It would not be a surprise if, like Herbert, Lawrence developed more consistency in intermediate/deep accuracy when asked to do it more frequently.

Overall:

Lawrence is a polished prospect with impressive physical tools paired with a three-year history of high-level play. However, I believe that his narrative as a historically great, near-perfect prospect has eclipsed his reality. Often, NFL fans and media tend to conflate precocity with potential. Players who break out at a young age (in Lawrence’s case, as a true freshman) are praised under the assumption that continued development will result in superstardom. In Lawrence’s case, he’s essentially remained the same player he was as a freshman. He has an in-depth understanding of Clemson’s offense and how to play the position in general, and he’ll surely adapt to an NFL offense quickly. It’s rare to find a prospect this advanced mentally who can routinely read multiple progressions as quickly as he does. However, I have concerns about his accuracy on throws over 10 yards and his poise under pressure. Despite this, he has enough upside to be deserving of the #1 overall pick in virtually any draft.

 

3. Zach Wilson, BYU

Grade/Projection: 8.7/10; Above average NFL starter

Strengths:

· Explosive, lightning-fast throwing motion

· Virtually perfect upper body mechanics

· Elite accuracy on downfield throws, especially into tight windows

· Able to change arm angles to accommodate throwing windows and still maintain velocity and accuracy

· Safe decision maker who rarely puts the ball in jeopardy

· Excellent downfield vision and decision making when rolling out on play action bootlegs

· Enough athleticism to escape the pocket to extend plays as a passer and occasionally threaten the defense as a runner

· Effortless arm strength even when forced to throw off-platform

Concerns:

· Frame: needs to add weight to hold up against NFL defenders

o Suffered labrum/rotator cuff and hand injuries in college

· Afforded with the luxury of abnormally good protection and took full advantage of it with very deep dropbacks

· Ran a wide zone/play action heavy system known for elevating quarterback play

· Looks like a 16-year-old

· Only one season of high level play

NFL Comparison: Baker Mayfield

Like Mayfield, Wilson burst onto the scene as a potential top 5 draft pick in his last year as a college starter. Both players are at their best when rolled out of the pocket and allowed to dissect the defense from the perimeter and while throwing on the run. With quick releases, good arm strength and downfield accuracy, both can threaten a defense at all three levels if adequately protected or put into play-action heavy offenses with defined reads.

Overall:

Wilson is a natural thrower of the football who can get the ball out incredibly quickly with power and precision. I would be careful not to mistake his quick throwing motion for quick decision making; he will very frequently hold the ball deep into a down and is almost always given adequate protection to do so. He is often compared to Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, largely on the basis of his ability to change arm angles without sacrificing arm strength or accuracy. However, I believe the other two players add more as improvisational players than I’ve seen from Wilson in college. There are examples on tape of Wilson making throws off-platform, however I believe the majority of these are on designed rollouts rather than second reaction plays. This could be attributable to the fact that BYU’s protection is so sound that Wilson is rarely faced with enough pressure to necessitate scrambling to buy time to pass. Given his ability to throw from any angle with proficiency, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him present as a Mahomes/Rodgers level improviser in the NFL if faced with more pressure. However, considering this attribute is one that is commonly cited to rationalize him as a top 3 draft pick, I believe it’s important to note that it isn’t exhibited as frequently on tape as advertised. Still, Wilson has enough arm talent to efficiently manage an NFL offense, especially one which often moves the pocket and gives the quarterback defined reads.

 

4. Mac Jones, Alabama

Grade/Projection: 8.0/10; Average NFL starter,

Strengths:

· Throws with elite timing and anticipation

o Gets the ball out with urgency in both pressure and non-pressure situations

· Great vision to see throwing windows before they open; trusts his eyes and begins his throwing motion with confidence promptly after a decision is made

· Excellent touch and varies ball trajectory depending on coverage

· Demonstrates command of the offense at the line of scrimmage without sideline assistance

· Accurate when the ball is thrown early in the down

· Good pocket awareness and poise

o Makes subtle movements around pressure while maintaining a throwing posture with both hands on the ball and eyes downfield

Concerns:

· Limited physical tools probably constrains NFL ceiling

o Below average arm strength

o Not a threat as a runner and probably lacks athleticism to escape the pocket in the NFL

· Accuracy sharply declines when ball is not thrown on time, especially downfield

· One year college starter

· Surrounded by an elite group of skill position players

NFL Comparison: Eli Manning

Jones is reminiscent of Manning in his proficiency in the quick passing game, confidence and consistent accuracy when throwing the ball on time. Like Manning, Jones will be hard-pressed to threaten defenses with mobility and fair questions can be raised about whether or not a quarterback with this playstyle can succeed without elite protection.

Overall:

Frankly, I had not watched Mac Jones play before writing this and only did so to render complete opinions on the top 5 quarterbacks. I was very surprised after watching him in depth at some of the traits he displayed as a pocket passer. Far from just a ball distributor to elite playmakers, Jones showed confidence, timing, touch, pocket manipulation and anticipation characteristic of a high-end pocket passer. Unfortunately, his physical tools leave much to be desired, and I have doubts that he can continue this playstyle at the NFL level. On plays where he is forced to hold onto the football longer than usual, his lack of arm strength and mobility become exposed. He lacks the athleticism to extend the play outside the pocket, and lacks the arm strength to push the ball downfield unless he gets the ball out early. Also, while anticipation is a valuable trait, players who rely on it are at an increased risk for turnovers in the NFL, as they are forced to release the ball before the coverage and leverages are clear and defined. For this reason, I would suspect Jones’ interception numbers to be a concern at the next level even though they weren’t in college. Still, he’s a good enough pocket passer to warrant a first round pick and will likely provide “just good enough” QB play through the duration of his rookie contract and up until his franchise realizes they need to upgrade to become a legitimate contender (provided he doesn’t stumble into 2 Manning-esque Super Bowl rings).

 

5. Trey Lance, North Dakota St.

Grade/Projection: 6.8/10; Developmental starter/backup

Strengths:

· Elite processing speed in the quick passing game

· Marries feet to eyes incredibly well, allowing him to smoothly progress between reads

· Very good arm strength

· Good acceleration and top-end speed; quick change of direction in the open field

· Runs a pro-style system and appears to understand it well based on speed of progressions

· Good play action fakes and ball handling

· Always keeps two hands on the ball even while moving under pressure

Concerns:

· Sporadic accuracy even on short throws

o Even ‘on-target’ throws are only generally accurate, often placed on the wrong shoulder or in positions that limit run after catch ability

· Begins his throwing motion by sinking into his lower body

· As a runner: will often just run full speed in a straight line with no regard for blocking, leverage or open space

· Frequently drops eyes to run at first sign of pressure

· Occasionally throws line drives when touch throws are indicated

Comparison: Josh Allen (Wyoming version)

I make this comparison both because I see similarities and to provide a cautionary tale. Josh Allen as a college player was a traits-based prospect who was poor in virtually every aspect of conventional quarterbacking. Lance, as he currently stands, is not an impressive quarterback by any means. He is inaccurate and lacks a feel for passing in general, despite sporadically unleashing highlight reel throws. He does, however, have impressive traits in his size, athleticism and arm strength, which could potentially be molded by the right team. I would tend to bet against it, considering stories like Allen are extremely rare, and the list of QB castoffs is much more concentrated with bad college QBs with good traits than is the list of NFL starters.

Overall:

If I were to get @OldTakesExposed for this writeup, I would most likely expect it to be because of Trey Lance. Honestly, I wouldn’t draft this player. He was not highly recruited coming out of high school, played 14 career college games against bad competition in which he wasn’t overly impressive, and is now being touted as a potential top 10 draft pick. I don’t really see anything that changed between him committing to NDSU and now that could have changed his stock so drastically. I will note that while I don’t put a ton of stock into “playing bad competition” in the passing game (if your receivers are about the same talent as the DBs the throwing windows are comparable), I find it much more relevant when evaluating the QB as a runner, since his athleticism is being compared head-to-head to the opponents’. Lance is an impressive runner on tape, but how much of this can be attributed to running around FCS players? The most confusing aspect of the current QB ‘draft stocks’ is that Lance and Fields are being valued almost equally. Fields has all of the traits that Lance has, if not better, and is actually a good, accurate quarterback on top of them. Maybe some team sits Lance and develops those traits. However, it’s going to take elite coaching and incredible roster construction in line with what we’ve seen from Buffalo over the last 3 years, and I will confidently bet against that….

@OldTakesExposed

 

lol I forgot that was in there. One of my good friends went to BYU and is a huge Wilson guy so I was taking a jab at him. Don’t think it’s too far off though haha.

 

I did list the torn labrum as a concern for Lawrence. And my mistake on Wilson, I was reading an article about Wilson and Brees’ injuries and I misattributed the rotator cuff injury they mentioned about Brees to Wilson.

I wrote these concerns before BYU’s pro day so I’m a little less nervous about Wilson’s frame now. I was expecting something in the ballpark of 6’1” 205 with the way he looks on tape, but I can definitely live with 6’2 214 given that he’ll easily pack on another 5-10 in an NFL program. Rodgers is 6’2” 225.

Me putting Wilson at #3 isn’t a slight against him. Like I said, I can live with the pick and I think we’d be getting a great player. I just happen to think Fields is a lot more special than he’s being made out to be.