Every since it was revealed JD had a plan we have all been wondering how it will go. Its true for me and I've been watching and researching every little step and trinket the FO has given us in order to peak behind the curtain at the plan. Though its a little early, and this might be a little bit of a rough take, its becoming clear what the plan is. Honestly the plan isn't that mysterious or unusual. What is more relevant to us is understanding the brain trust who are now leading us and what their plans are for our future - who we will be in the future. That is really the primary focus of this post. JDs (and Selah's) plan seems to be a cross between the Ravens method and the 49ers method, with a seemingly larger slant towards the 49ers. What we should understand about that is from now on we are going to be a defense first team. That sounds over simplified so lets go into what that means for our brain trust. Defense will almost always be the priority and we will spend the bulk of our resources on it. That means most of our high draft capital and most of our expensive FAs will be on defense every season. This season we have to rebuild the offense so it will be a little less so. But overall its always going to be about defense first. There will be years soon where our cap will be as high as 65% defense to 35% offense. They are going to spare few expenses to build this defense. They wont stop until they have at least 5 probowl caliber starters and no positional weakness's. Defensive linemen will be considered the most important positions on the team, and they will never let the DL slip into disrepair. We are going to have a top 5 defense again, no matter how long it takes. This comes at a cost and that cost is paid by the offense - primarily WR and RB. That is the lamb that get sacrificed for the defense. Their priorities on offense will be as follows: 1. OL - most important by a long shot. 2. QB - They will only draft one first round QB. If that busts we will trade for one. 3. TE - Almost as important to them and their scheme as QB, but not 1st round important. 4. WR/RB - Always mid level servicable players who fill a role. We will never...NEVER, draft a WR or RB in the first round. They are second round and beyond players in this system. We will never pay a top WR or RB top money. The only way we ever have a top WR or RB on this team is if we get one at an unusual bargain, or we get lucky in the later rounds. The WR core we currently have now is how our receiving core looks for the duration of their tenure. Mid level'ish role playing guys. Number one draft picks will almost always be for a linemen, depending on which side of the ball needs it the most. Outside of QB we will rarely draft a non linemen in the first. The exception to this will always be on defense (LB, CB). Another worthy note is they prefer to get QBs outside of the first round. Not always, but neither the Ravens for 49ers have used a top 10 pick on a QB in decades. Even when the Ravens took Flacco they traded down ten spots, from 8 to 18. And that was because they were finally desperate. The 49ers kept trying in rounds 2-3 before trading for Jimmy G. (That system may finally be coming to an end, because, and only because, they are so solidly built now.) I'm not saying this means we wont ever use a top 10 pick on a QB. Nothing is set, especially considering our needs, but it would go against their system - their plan, and they hate going off plan. There system also says this is not the year to draft a QB. Again, because of our unusual circumstances this could be altered. But IMO the odds are heavily in favor of us trading down for more capital to continue building with. They want the offense complete so the QB has the best chance to not bust - because they hate using the capital on him. This years draft is very likely to go like this: We trade with the 49ers for extra capital and maybe a player we have our eye on. 12 - IOL 23 - DL 34 - OT or maybe DB 44 (from SF) - IOL or potentially RB The first two picks, 12 and 23, could be switched depending on BPA -and the DL could become a LB if they feel there is a hotshot. But those picks are very in line with their first round philosophy. It wont matter if they take players higher then they are projected. They only have so many picks and they are going to get their guys, projected draft position be damned. Once QB is taken care of expect all future drafts to go similarly. The game is won and lost up front and our top pick will always be big men. Overall, if they do this right they are going to build a very competitive team. It will take time and if they whiff on their first rounders it could take a long time. Yet we will get there. What we wont have is an electrifying offense. But we will have a top defense. The details of how far it takes us are in fates hands.
You never seem to trade back the #2 for very much tbh, can't help but feel 12/44 and a player is still on the low side, but not as low as trading it to the Falcons for the #4 and a 2nd rounder lol Got to be getting some future 1st/2nds on top imo
Not to make two big a point out of it but both the Ravens and the 49ers have drafted two WR's in the 1st round in the last decade. That's 20% of their 1st round picks on WR's.
JD has discussed his plan repeatedly. Build up strong lines: defense and offense. Get a good QB. Build the team primarily through the draft. I don't think he values the D more than the O. It's just that there were better free agent options on the defensive side of the ball this year. Now I expect him to draft a couple of O-lineman.
I def can see this, and perfectly fine with this type of management. In a defense first team, a QB that is not turnover prone is key. Especially since defensive teams plays the field position, and time of possession game. At the end of the day I think we will prioritize defense but more like 60/40 Def/Off. Main priority will always be Oline and Dline. The offense and defense wont feature 1 man show type players, there will be only players who fit the system. I think we have the rt set of coaches on both sides of the ball, with the rt HC and GM to run a solid program.
He clearly needs to draft Smith at #2. Super Bowl in 2 years. QB can be anyone. Toss that dude the ball and watch run for paydirt!
Good point Brad, but that's an outlier. The 49ers took a WR with the 30th pick in 2012, after they were completely rebuilt and trying to make a push past the NFC championship game. So a caveat would be we might grab a low first round WR when we are rebuilt and need the offensive push to get over the hump. The Ravens aren't really running the same philosophy as they did most of JD time there. JD is going to build more of a team that looks like the pre-Jackson era Ravens. But after we are rebuilt, and when we are ready for a final push, yep maybe a 1st rounder at WR. Probably several years away.
I can only guess what deal they will get, or who we trade with. In the 49ers swap we would need to get more then #2 and a player (unless its Bosa or someone like that). I just didn't want to extend the mock draft that far.
If JD focuses more on defense than offense - as a guiding philosophy as opposed to taking advantage of a given opportunity - I'll be very disappointed. This is an offense-driven league, and has been since the turn of the century. The Jets have tried to follow a "defense wins championships" script all that time and haven't won a thing. Certainly defense is important. We can look at this year's SB to see that the team that had the better defense won, but they sure did have a damn good offense, not to mention the most successful QB in the game. And, oh yeah, the Chiefs had a pretty damn good QB too. Until we get a FQB and an offense to go with him, we're not winning anything. If Douglas doesn't understand that, he might not last to the end of his contract. As to "what's behind the curtain", none of us knows. We can guess, and make general statements, but JD isn't tipping his hand. And I would go so far as to say that there are no media "experts" who know anything either. Within the general outlines of "Build from draft; supplement via FA; trade once in a while, usually to get draft picks" there's a lot of room for him to do things, and impossible for us to predict. And if he trades the #2 pick for the 44th pick, he should be fired immediately.
The names change but the arguments stay the same. Mayfield>Darnold>Rosen>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Allen Wilson>Fields>>>>>>>>Lance>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Mack>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>the Rest. You are a massive cunt if you don't agree with my QB of choice, well, that's just wrong, mine is obviously way better than your choice, I mean come on man ffs I can't wait for the collective sigh of disappointment when we trade down out of the #2 spot and keep Sam
If defense is the focus, why no CB signings and why don't you have a CB drafted in our first 4 picks? Other than that, we agree that the draft's focus is OL, OL, and OL. And if we're going to spend 65% on defense, why hire a defensive genius who requires top defensive players? Folks like Parcells and Belichek made their dime by getting the best out of underrated players! Did Parcells or Rex Ryan defenses spend big on defensive talent when we went to the AFC Championship?
Because he has real talent and he didn't act like a chickenshit by sitting out the season. You can make the Smith / Waddle comparisons all day and it won't change the fact that Nick Saban thought Smith was better. Look at the way the two of them were used and it becomes clear that Saban saw Smith as the primary piece and Waddle as a good complementary piece. This is similar to last year when Ruggs and Waddle were complementary speed guys playing off the main two of Jeudy and Smith. The Alabama offense went through the rounded WR's who had game in every zone and used the speed guys to stretch things out. When Waddle got hurt this year Smith became almost unstoppable. Not because he had great talent around him but because he was almost unstoppable.
This thread is more about me coming to terms with the fact we have zero chance of taking Smith, even if he was there on a trade down. In my evaluations Waddle doesn't beat Smith in any category except raw speed. And even that is debatable when you compare them in game, in the open field. Waddle is fast, but those long strides of Smith put a lot of distance between the DBs in fewer steps. Also Waddle's injury probably makes its closer to even now. But the real difference is Smith is so smooth at the catch. Waddle catches a lot of deep passes where he has to go to the ground to complete the catch. On these same plays Smith would catch it, stay on his feet, and look for YAC. Smith almost never goes to the ground making a catch. Everything he does is smooth and focused on continuing towards the end zone. I have even come to believe that Smith will be more reliable on 50/50 balls then Chase. Chase is a better fighter but Smith is a better jumper, has a longer reach, and better hands. Especially in the end zone. (I didn't give the details of the mock SF trade other then it includes SFs 2nd. Why do people think that is the proposed trade?)
Then explain what trade you're advocating. Because what you wrote essentially boils down to the Jets trading back to #12 in return for SF's second round pick.
We trade with the 49ers for extra capital and maybe a player we have our eye on. That is what I wrote. I didn't feel like guessing at what the trade would include or extending the mock beyond the 44th pick, which I already explained earlier in this thread.
