Yeah, agreed. This is a team sport. Look at Mahomes in the Super Bowl. He has no chance without pass protection, and he is considered the best QB on the planet right now. Sam's case is a little different, because I think intelligent NFL and Jets fans know that the team's failures were not his fault. We give him the benefit of the doubt. The problem is Did Sam do enough on his own to warrant giving him another chance with a new Head Coach and a better roster? That is where people are split.
Well, there is a new ESPN speculative trade for Sam with a convoluted 4 team round robin with Seattle, Chicago and Denver. At the end of the day, Sam goes to Seattle and we get the 2023 3rd from Denver, the 2023 3rd from Seattle (conditional) and WR Tim Patrick from Denver. What do you guys make of it? Doesn't seem quite favorable for the Jets.
I'm the biggest Sam hater around and even I think we could probably get more than that. I'd like it more if the picks weren't in 2023. If we offload Darnold we need picks ASAP so we can build around the new QB as quickly as possible. I think my ideal outcome is the idea that's been floated around of trading Darnold to the 49ers for a swap of 1st round picks. We send them the #23 and they trade us the #12. I think doing that would give us a decent shot at being able to draft both Wilson and Waddle. It almost seems too good to be true though.
To me the keep Sam or dont keep Sam comes down to two things . Do you think you can upgrade the positions with one of the rookies and do have enough time with Sam's contract. We have plenty of draft capital and Money to build a contending either way. If you think it is close you go with the rook for contract reasons.
Well, if JD decides to trade Sam, his new team will owe him $5M this season and $18M for his 5th. That's $23M for a starting QB for 2 seasons....not bad. Avg less than $12M per over 2 years. A cap stressed team might just take the bait.
I am personally not big on most the QBs not named Lawerence. Lance is probably the one I am highest on and he needs time to develop. Honestly they all need time, but I think Lance has the most potential of them. Wilson is a one year wonder and even it wasn't that great. Compare his year to Burrows year. Not so good. Fields is better imo, but how will he do without a stacked team at NFL speed. Honestly I wouldn't draft them. If Sam us as bad as people say we will pick at the top again next year. If someone offers a boat load Sam can go and we can sign Alex Smith, Tyrod Taylor or someone else to stop gap. We need to focus on building our team. Look at KC, all the piece were there before Mahomes. He stepped into a perfect situation and became the best in the nfl... look at Watson, Hopkins, Watts, and a solid team was there, he stepped in and became a top 3 qb. Look at Allen, they built the team, he came in and developed. I want who we draft to succeed, but if we draft Wilson I think it's about a 85% chance of failure.
We didn't pick up the 5th yet, it 18m for the 5th... not 28. They just posted the number for 5th year option on nfl.com. QB starter with no pro bowl appearances is 18m.
Wilson is indeed a one year wonder (like Burrow) but to say it wasn't a great season is false. Here's how it compared to Burrow's season, and keep in mind Burrow's is literally the best season by a college QB ever: Burrow 76% completion 10.8 Y/A 60 TD 6 INT 202 QB rating Wilson 74% completion 11.0 Y/A 33 TD 3 INT 196.4 QB rating It wasn't as good a year as Burrow but it was clearly a great season. Better Y/A than Burrow, better TD/INT ratio, comparable completion %/QB rating. Burrow faced far better competition than Wilson but he also played on an offense with numerous first round picks surrounding him which is not true of Wilson's offense.
Again 1 year. Chances of that player actually being competent 2 years in a row, not high. Add that he played bad competition even less. Add that he's going to a team that has 0 talent offensively outside LT and Slot WR, even less. Again Wilson is a very bad pick for us. I understand he had a good year. I very seriously doubt he has a good year for the Jets. It would be a wasted pick.
I think the 5th year option only being $18 million just helped Sam's trade value even more. You trade for him, exercise the option, and then you have your QB locked up for 2 seasons at a really low price for a starter. If he plays great, it is a homerun, if he plays bad, you cut your losses (which isn't that much), and if he plays average, you got a pretty good deal. Now what will the team give up for him? I still say a late 1st rounder or a 2nd round pick. Maybe a 2 and a 4 or 5. Something like that.
I definitely think his value is up. Pretty sure Douglas is holding out for the deal he wants. If not he may take the gamble on him here. He's not in a rush to give Sam away for nothing. An extra 1st works big in our favor as we get closer to the draft.
You believe what the tape tells you. Does he make the correct reads, Does he get the ball out on time, can he make off platform throws, is he athletic with a strong arm and most important is he accurate? If he has all of that he will be successful in the NFL even with the Jets (Baring injury)
All that was said about David Carr, Johnny Manziel, RG3, hell Sam Darnold was supposed to be the best QB in the last "Great QB draft". Ryan Leaf was highly touted..... want more.... the team you go to does matter. Kyler Murray has on of the best wr from the past 2 decades plus some other decent receivers... I bet that definitely helped him. Fact is if you look at all the qbs they share one thing... they have a least 1 decent receiver, maybe several, and usually the only is decent-above average. The jets don't have that. Period.
You say that as though the Jets won't have any great receivers. With the cap space and draft picks they have, Douglas should certainly be able to transform this team, especially the offense, which will help any QB (including Darnold) succeed. If JD does not significantly improve the offense, I doubt I'll be paying much attention to anything else they do going forward. My question to you is: have you watched much - or any - tape on Wilson?
I do not think any of those QBs checked all the boxes. You either trust the tape and your scouts or you don't. Looking at competition level stats are a very small part of the eval. Yes, football is a team sport having good receivers helps your development . By your logic we should skip on a QB and sign a JAG because nobody will be successful how the Jets are currently constructed? I would rather draft the QB we like and surround him with good players.
You know who might be interested in a starting QB for $23M for two seasons, and a ton of draft cap including the 2nd overall to build a solid team? JD!
Good QB prospects bust all the time, just like good prospects at every position. That's just the nature of the game. That doesn't mean you don't play the game at all. There are plenty of reasons to think Wilson will be very good. Could he bust? Sure, of course. Is it likely he's worse than Darnold? I doubt it. In general, the higher you draft a QB the better his chances of being good and becoming your long term answer at the position. Having the #2 overall pick is extremely rare. We likely won't be in as good a position as this to draft a QB for many years. The consensus among the best scouts and QB coaches seems to be that Wilson is the best QB available in this class other than Lawrence. Regarding surrounding talent - given our picks and cap space the next 2 years I think it's safe to say the offense is going to look quite a bit different than it does now very soon. We have enough early picks and cap space where keeping the #2 pick and transforming the offense aren't mutually exclusive.
I have watch plenty of tape. And with that very limited tape against what should be high school competition. He looked good. But with everything stacked against him. I still say he has about a 15% success chance.
Question: If JD decides to keep Sam for 2021 but JD doesn't pick up Sam's 5th, can JD tag Sam after his 4th year? Or does Sam become a FA no matter what if JD doesn't pick up his 5th yr option, a decision that has to be made by May 22nd of this season. Anyone know? @MaximusD163
