You are partially correct but have a couple of big misconceptions regarding five year averages and the salary cap and length of contracts that are skewing your figures but at least you have cited a source other than "common knowledge." Your source appears to be wrong on the five year average, as is any inclusion of the salary cap as a factor. Darnold will fall into the second lowest category of quarterbacks by meeting play time requirements but never being elected to the Pro Bowl. That means his option price will be based on the average PYS of all quarterbacks from the third highest paid to the twentieth highest, not the 25th as you say. PYS stands for "Prior Year Salary" as defined here: "Prior Year Salary (PYS): A player's PYS is composed of his base salary, roster and reporting bonuses, prorated signing bonus and other payments to players for playing in the NFL for the previous league year — except any performance bonuses outside of roster and reporting bonuses. May 24, 2020" 2020 NFL CBA Explained: Franchise Tag – Front Office Football (frontofficenfl.com) [The article is geared towards franchise and transition tag calculations but I did not see the definition of "PYS" on the NFL document that outlines the option year payments.] Here is the actual CBA from 2018, the appropriate section begins on page 55 of the PDF about halfway down page 42 of the text: March-15-2020-NFL-NFLPA-Collective-Bargaining-Agreement-Final-Executed-Copy.pdf (windows.net) There is nothing in that calculation or anywhere in the description of the fifth year option that refers to it being affected by a five year average or the salary cap. Using current information from Spotrac regarding 2020 salary "Total Cash" figures would make the option price $25,603,974. Precisely what Spotrac includes in the "Total Cash" category is not clear; If incentive payments listed separately for Brady, Mariota and Brissett do not apply and are included in that "Total Cash" figure it would reduce the option price by $333,333. [Actually, after a second look, Mariota and Brissett appear to be below the top twenty so their's wouldn't count; Brady's incentives would only amount to a possible reduction of $187,500.] There are no doubt a few other minor items that could show up but I believe that if people were to use a figure of $25.5 million they won't be far off. Oh, and to be clear - that's way too high for Darnold today.
My inclusion of the salary cap as a factor will most likely come into play because the 5th year option will be calculated using salaries from Darnold's 4th year, this year, which by all reports is going to see some reduction is salaries due to the reduced salary cap. The top players may see no drop but those in the 2nd and 3rd tier may, which would bring down the average. No, salary cap is not a direct factor in calculating the 5th year option amount but it will affect salaries and thus will effect the option amount. The total from 3rd through 20th, https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/cap-hit/quarterback/ which is Wilson through Darnold, comes in around $391,717,000 which divided by 17 comes to $23M, Mariotta is in the top 20 and Brissett is a FA. If some of the contracts come in a little lower this year it could drop that a little more. And before anyone here gets the idea I am saying pay Darnold $23M, nope never said it.
It gets calculated using year three. The fifth year option only applies to the top ten positions of the draft. I think my numbers are pretty accurate.
My mistake using year 4 instead of year 3 but your calculations are definitely off if you used "Total Cash" since the "Cap Hit" should give you the correct figure. "Total Cash" most likely includes the total of bonuses paid out even if they are prorated for purposes of cap hit/salary. The $53M R Wilson shows for "Total Cash" shows me that isn't the right number to use. Using "Cap Hit" it comes to $377,142,641 for #3-#20, an average of $22,184,861.
Cap hit is not considered at all in either the CBA or the article I link; that article showed those categories of pay that apply, including prorated bonuses; there's nothing "most likely" about what is included. Here is that quote again: "Prior Year Salary (PYS): A player's PYS is composed of his base salary, roster and reporting bonuses, prorated signing bonus and other payments to players for playing in the NFL for the previous league year — except any performance bonuses outside of roster and reporting bonuses. May 24, 2020" Russell Wilson's salary is irrelevant as he is the highest and it is positions 3 - 20 that are included in the calculation. Third is Cousins at forty million; twentieth is Alex Smith at 16 million.
The "base salary, roster and reporting bonuses, prorated signing bonus and other payments" from the above is equal to the cap number. The total cash number would include entire signing bonuses cash paid which would inflate your numbers and should not be included in the calculation. I used the term most likely since neither of us works on the salary cap for the league office so I was acknowledging that I am not an expert on the subject but I know the "Total Cash" number is incorrect for this calculation. The mention of Russell Wilson is an example to show you that the number under "Total Cash" is not the number that should be used since it includes his entire signing bonus not his prorated signing bonus. You can see others on the list, between spots 3 and 20, under Total Cash that this applies to also. I just figured with Wilson being top of the list and the number so inflated that it would be more noticeable to some to make my point. If you don't like me using Wilson as an example since he is not between 3-20 on your Total Cash list, then use Cousins. His $40,000,000 Total Cash includes his entire $30,000,000 signing bonus when the PYS calculations, and also cap hit calculations, would use the prorated $10,000,000 amount bringing his cap hit and PYS down to $20,000,000.
Actually, it looks like we're both wrong when Russell Wilson's individual contract page is looked at in more detail. His contract extension signed in April 2019 shows a 65 million signing bonus which was to be prorated over not just his new four year extension but also the remaining year left on his existing contract, or 13 million per year which it shows in the annual breakdown with the exception of 2019 which shows an additional 6.2 million which appears to be the carried over bonus amount from his previous contract. The thing that Spotrac has that is weird is that they show his "signing cash" in 2019 for 30 million and 2020 for 35 million. There is however a clause that allows the player to defer signing bonuses but it appears that in most cases it is still prorated and then a section actually called the "Deion Rule" comes into effect. So, yes, the numbers shown as "Total Cash" appear to be somewhat skewed by applying signing bonuses contrary to the proration schedule. Looking at Cousins, as you say shows the prorated amount is not reflected, just the entire payments made in that year. The end result though, when averaging eighteen salaries, is that some will have a bigger hit if they are credited for a bonus that year, but most will show nothing instead of the prorated amount. Without doing a deep dive on all eighteen players it should pretty much even out in addition to those things that may not show up on Spotrac. I don't think it will be very long before we see the actual number come out because I think Mayfield, Jackson and Allen will get optioned and the amounts are usually announced at the beginning of the league year, March 17 in 2021. I'm going to stick with my $25.5 million ballpark for now. Are you still looking at 18?
When I reran the numbers with 3-20 instead of 3-25, and using his year 3 instead of year 4 I come up just over $22M
If your first number was good at eighteen it would still be too much for Darnold! [What source do you use for your cap numbers?]
Those numbers were Sportrac but Overthecap would have only caused it to go down about $235K so roughly $22M even
The option salary for each 2018 first-round pick is listed below: 1. Quarterback Baker Mayfield, Browns — $18.858 million (Playing time). 2. Running back Saquon Barkley, Giants — $7.217 million (One Pro Bowl). 3. Quarterback Sam Darnold, Jets — $18.858 million (Playing time). 4. Cornerback Denzel Ward, Browns — $13.294 million (One Pro Bowl). 5. Linebacker Bradley Chubb, Broncos — $12.716 million (One Pro Bowl). 6. Guard Quenton Nelson, Colts — $13.754 million (Two Pro Bowls). 7. Quarterback Josh Allen, Bills — $23.106 million (One Pro Bowl). 8. Linebacker Roquan Smith, Bears — $9.735 million (Playing time). 9. Tackle Mike McGlinchey, 49ers — $10.88 million (Playing time). 10. Quarterback Josh Rosen, Cardinals — No option after being traded to an released by the Dolphins
