I swear just this morning I read something on The Athletic about a GM raving about how well Wilson "drives" the ball down the field when he throws lmao. Arm strength seems like such a subjective thing. I really don't think any of us can pretend to accurately gauge the velocity of passes thrown on camera. Unless it's Josh Allen where the ball moves notably faster than anyone else.
BUT the soup could cause indigestion so we'd have to hit CVS after for some Pepto Bismol so I'll just have the steak.
Exactly. First, I'm not an expert, just a fan who has watched hundreds of QBs over the years, but that just gives me a subjective basis to judge things like this on. That's why one of the things I liked about the Combine (although they can also measure this in workouts) is the use of the guns to measure velocity, and the distance measurements. Still, by themselves these also fail to really give the full picture. Anyway, having someone who thinks - in this case - that Wilson doesn't have a strong enough arm to provide examples of why they think this would help me to see what they're talking about because I don't see it. I'm not saying they're wrong, I just need to see the context.
Watch the Houston and UCF games. Because of his motion, he also has the tendency to miss high and even if it's not a miss in college because he was so well protected (talking about timing throws/in pocket throws), catchable high misses in college are uncatchable high misses in the NFL where everything is sped up. Idunno what this guy is talking about but this is hardly a frozen rope. This is a very difficult throw and it's far and deep. But if everyone's going to compare him to Mahomes and Rodgers, he needs to not nearly give the defender a chance at recovering because the receiver has to stop. This is a dart and a very good/difficult throw (to be fair). Watch those full game tapes though. If you watch a lot of college football, you see a lot of guys (pro prospect or not) that can throw the ball 40-50 yards in the air and complete passes all over the field. It's the juice on the ball when it needs to be there that keeps those guys from being good pros. That's why I go back to Bradford. His tape looks awfully similar and although Wilson's a better athlete, they have relatively the same frail/slender build, same compact throwing motion without a lot of legs involved, and come out with the same labels of incredibly accurate and what not. The question is not necessarily whether Wilson naturally has enough arm to put more juice on the ball, because most guys generally do. But does the accuracy maintain the same when 1 - you add more velocity, 2 - can you add more velocity effectively and reduce it when you need to and 3 - what does this all look like when you don't have 6 seconds to throw against mid-tier Group of Five teams.
He’s a better athlete than Bradford or even Mayfield but have still seen some things on game tape when things break down especially right along the hashes where hes a frozen target w dead feet and/or wasted movement for just a split second & those are sacks in the NFL. We’ve seen similar flaws on college tape w Mayfield flushed to his right as well as on the boundary & Rosen anywhere outside the hashes. Is it mental?Ankle stiffness? Coordination? Dont know but didnt like it.Odds are its a minor flaw but definitely wouldnt write it off & good not great athlete w some limitation is likely the best description. To your points about his arm.. everything is adequate but theres not alot of torque behind throws where their needs to be also not thrilled w the trajectory either.Too much arc on some throws,not enough on others. I think arm strength matters & especiallly so in East Rutherford. Chad & Sanchez had their moments but the best passing games this team has fielded were w guys w elite level arms both in distance & velocity. Namath.KOB.Testaverde.
Regarding the bold - that's actually something Simms talked about on his podcast evaluating the QB's. He said Wilson is the best of the bunch at not losing accuracy when increasing velocity. Simms said a guy like Lawrence probably has a stronger arm than Wilson but he's not as good at maintaining accuracy when he really lets it rip.
Thanks, I appreciate this! First, I agree with the misuse of the term "frozen rope", which so many of these "analysts" over use. Second, I also agree - and have said so myself in the past - that Wilson does NOT possess the arm of Mahomes or Allen. Third, I agree that you have to look at his accuracy when he really has to put his arm into it. On this point, from what I've seen - and I have watched almost all of the tape on him that I know of - his accuracy holds up. I don't think he could possess the accuracy ratings he has if this weren't so. Fourth, you did include some footage of what I think we can both agree are special throws, throws that I've never seen Darnold make even in college (not a high bar to clear granted, but meant to say clearly an upgrade over Sam). On balance I still think he has ample arm strength - including accuracy under duress - to be elite, but I have a better picture of what you're saying so thanks for taking the effort to do this. On an aside, the first time I posted here a few months ago about Wilson after being made aware of him by Zace, I likened him to a "poor man's Mahomes", and tried to quantify that by specifically stating that I wasn't saying he had as strong an arm as Mahomes, but that his sense of the game, and his off platform play and throwing from different arm angles reminded me of Patrick. I still hold that opinion, but I have to admit to being annoyed at all the straight comparisons to Mahomes that so many "analysts" are tossing around. He is NOT as good as Mahomes, at least from what I've seen at this point. MAYBE he can become something close, or develop his own way of playing that's even better (though not likely). But if he becomes second best to Patrick, I'd sign up for that. Anyway, thanks again.
IDK if you still have me on ignore, but I'll respond to this anyway. I disagree that he doesn't have enough arm strength to succeed (meaning to me lead a team to the SB consistently), but I understand your concerns as noted. I do believe that the best QBs do possess elite arm strength, and while Wilson's is strong enough IMO, it's not elite. But I also think there are other key traits to a great QB, among them possessing an innate understanding of the game, meaning that they seem to be always playing a few moves ahead of everyone else, leading them to see and take advantage of holes in the defense, and/or being able to create something out of nothing - this is something that Mahomes, Rodgers, Elway, Montana did so great. And also, the ability to lead and bring their team back from defeat consistently. On these two traits I'd rate Wilson very high, so with that couple with his VG arm strength and great accuracy I think he has a good chance to become elite.
I'm not really sure how Simms could come to that conclusion because there haven't been a ton of situations where Wilson has really has to dial up the velocity to beat the defensive back to the spot. The nature of their offense was to throw deep down the sidelines which is where most of his "wow" loft throws come from and why everyone's banging the table about his arm. The throw I referenced as being a dart is a really good throw. He does climb the pocket well, but he climbs into absolutely nothing in front of him and makes a good throw across the field to a guy that has five yards of separation. Sure, it's difficult and showcases velocity, and if you analyze the throw by itself in a vacuum it's a nice ball. But throw in the other factors and it degrades it a bit.
To rebut this, everyone's knock on Fields is field vision and how when he's on he has tons of time to throw, but why not the same complaints about Wilson? The only game he saw legitimate pressure was against Coastal Carolina he was rather mediocre. It's easy to see the whole field and bomb it deep. left and right when you have all day to throw.
That's not Fields only knock. He is a one read QB, he has hard time anticipating routes, he has a very long throwing motion, he has hard time completing short throws. I have never seen him improvise. He is poor at reading coverage. His best attributes are his heavy arm and running ability.
Well I've admitted that I don't know how people are making the judgment about "seeing the field" when you can't see their eye movements and even their head movements are hard to see, but I have seen Wilson seem to scan the field more so than say Fields so I'm going off that for my own assessment. I trust that someone experienced like Simms, JT O'Sullivan, and Tim Jenkins can see this and comment accurately (if not perfectly) on it. As to the CC game, I disagree that Wilson was mediocre. To the contrary I think he was damn good but the team didn't play as well as he did. But a lot of that I'm going to put to the fact that they only found out a couple of days beforehand that they were playing CC and had to fly across the country to play the game; also there were some very suspicious "home" calls in that game. I agree that he didn't look "all world", but he was damn good against a quality team under those conditions. We'll have to ATD on this I guess. In comparison, Fields struggled against two teams that he should've done better against, and while the whole OSU team struggled, Fields in particular didn't do well, the opposite of what I saw with Wilson in the CC game. And also Lance only played one game in 2020 and he actually looked like he regressed from 2019 - although TBF, it's really hard to come out of the gate hitting on all cylinders for one game. Here's where I'm at right now: IDK if I'd say any of these QBs are as "can't miss" as P. Manning or Luck, or Mahomes or Watson, but I'd put Wilson and Lawrence (in that order IMO) right under that level. Given we need a FQB, I'd take either of those guys at #2.
We go back a long ways.Ignore was for one day..my apologies. Im passionate about this one. Throughout this entire process ive never said hes not a good QB prospect or indicated that hes a bad player. I just wouldnt take him at #2 & i dont think hes the best fit for NY despite perhaps being a scheme fit. The guy can make all the throws. Hes smooth on his drop backs. He has very good command..in fact that might be his best asset. Very good pocket presence. But at #2 im looking for at least one elite trait. And the 3 things different people at different times have alluded to as being elite i dont agree with. 1.Arm strength(Which you already agree is not elite) 2.Athleticism 3 Instincts Game senses is something you made mention of which fits into instincts. While i agree he does PLAY instinctially..im not sure its always for the better at the next level. Many of the throws people have used to exemplify this are quite often thrown into double sometimes triple coverage,w.o a ton of zip that are surely picks or PBUs in the NFL. Also to piggy back off @Jonathan_Vilma point about him never being under pressure & not doing well when he was;Thats one of the biggest gauges of elite level instincts & game sense from a QB is when you are under immense constant pressure & have to create on your own. I think you need the right type of arm to win at Metlife & in AFC east . Need somebody who can cut through that wind at all levels w just enough arc for the receivers to adjust in stride. Im not trying to label every QB w a geographical location but Wilson seems like more of west coast sort of QB. Perhaps the same could be said for Sam
I really liked a lot of what I saw from Fields when I watched him play this season. The one thing I can't get over though is how many Darnold-like moments I saw. What I mean specifically is that when a play would break down Fields had a strong tendency to refuse to give up on the play and make boneheaded throws into multi coverage trying to make something out of nothing. I pretty much never saw anything like that from Wilson. I think it's extremely important for a QB to realize when there's nothing there and throw it away or at least make a throw where the only two possible outcomes are your guy catching it or it going out of bounds. I saw Wilson do that several times, where he didn't have a great option so he threw it where only his guy had a chance or it went out of bounds. Is that fixable in the NFL, where everything happens more quickly? I don't know, but I lean no given that it's plagued Darnold his entire career and it's not like he doesn't know it's a bad idea to throw into triple coverage. He just can't help himself from making the wrong decision in the heat of the moment. If you couple this tendency with the fact that Fields took the longest time to throw on average of the major QB prospects it could indicate a processing speed deficiency.
That tells me that you haven't watched enough of him. Literally every single one of those "knocks" was in full display against Michigan or Wisconsin last year, except the elongated motion. I agree that it is, but he's also extremely technically sound with his footwork and motion on the move that I don't think it's a big issue because he drives on the ball. That's the 10th (Michigan) and 12th (Wisconsin) ranked pass defenses from 2019. 10th (Wisconsin) and 25th (Michigan) respectively in points allowed.
Regarding the Wilson not doing well under pressure thing, I disagree with that. He performed very well under pressure, best in the QB class I believe. I know not everyone likes PFF here but: They also have a rating that analyzes good throws made under pressure. I don't have it on hand but Wilson ranked the highest of the available QB's in that metric as well.
That was one game. KC could play a full season with that lineup and still win 11 games and make the playoffs. You keep forgetting how his receivers let him down.
How many of those plays could there possibly be? He has 14 turnovers (9 picks/5 fumbles lost) in 22 starts and 579 attempts (excluding his spot duty at Georgia but he had no turnovers there). Not to mention he has only thrown interceptions in 5 career games. The only real knock I see is needing to have the hero ball moments (anecdotal) coached out of his game.
Three drops absolutely fucked them. The Kelce big first down drop early in the game, and Tyreek Hill dropping two touchdowns (converted one for a FG). That games at least 31-20 with two plays.
