Chris Simms and Curious Case of Zach Wilson

We been seeing these mind-blowing analytics on Wilson for a couple of months now, and it has me believing that he's either the best QB in this draft or a monumental one-year-wonder. There is no in between.

 

Coming from a stats guy, Wilson's 2020 season was one of the most impressive seasons in the history of college football. Putting up those numbers on that BYU team was insane. It's more impressive than anything Lawrence has done and only Burrow's 2019 really compares to it. But as with Burrow, the big question with Wilson is whether it was a legitimate improvement or a fluke. Lawrence has a three-year track record that Wilson doesn't have.

 

We're fine. He and I are pretty much on the same page as to how to build the team this offseason. It seems like we want the same players. He's very passionate and I love that, so no hard feelings I hope even with him cursing me out. LOL I'm sure we'll clash over picks and talent and direction and plays and whatever, but at the end of the day, we both want the same thing. For our Jets to win games.

And if everyone got along and agreed with each other all the time, it would make for a very boring message board. Although we agree about how to build the team this offseason, I had to disagree about this draft being weak in IOL. It very well could be, but good GMs always seem to find those hidden gems in the middle rounds. That really was my point, as evidenced by the Patriots selecting Thuney with the 78th pick. You just never know.

 

I'm going out on a limb here to say the schedule may be somewhat significant. Really, he had to face the Hilltoppers, Bobcats, Bulldogs, Broncos, Lions, Roadrunners and the ever powerful Chanticleers. Admittedly, he did face the Trojans too, but they came from Alabama, not California.

Sagarin's final ratings for the year had BYU at #106 in strength of schedule, right behind Louisiana - Monroe. Perspective.

 

Definitely, a valid point about him possibly being a one-year wonder. Therefore you have to look at his skill set. IMO, it is off the charts. The way he twists his hips around and throws accurate passes is very impressive. Reminds me of Mahomes and Rodgers. His ability to make all the hard throws across his body on the run, again very impressive. His accuracy, impressive. He's fearless and runs right over people or slips around them to get into the endzone. Impressive. His improvisational skills are impressive. Yes, I'm impressed! I can keep going but you get the point.

 

I think WIlson is the case where stats meet the eye test. He was ranked #1 of all time passer by PFF. Basically, according to the advanced stats of pff he is the best passer that has ever played single NCAA season. When you watch him play, he passes the eye test too. Has a big arm as well, and measurements I think will be 6-2+ 115+lb. Very athletic as well. And he actually has a very good rookie year also, and played second year before full recovery from surgery. So, yeah, he only had one elite year, but has solid body of work in the 1st year too before surgery. The bottom line here is that there are TWO players in this draft that appear to be top talents. And Jets happen to have #2 pick in this draft.

 

BYU faced a weak schedule, but Wilson's teammates were a bunch of nobodies; the best player on their offense other than him was TE Matt Bushman, who's a projected mid-round pick. The other top prospects (Lawrence, Fields, and Lance) all played on teams that were superior to their competition, whereas without Wilson, BYU would have been mediocre in their conference.

 

Yeah I've been doing a pretty deep dive into QB stats this year, and I couldn't believe what I was seeing with Wilson's numbers. The raw stats are impressive, but when you look at the team he put up those numbers on and the advanced metrics, this guy is an elite prospect.

 

I'm not real familiar with the defense of the North Alabama Lions but I'm just guessing that most here would describe them as "nobodies" also; does anyone have a clue who their best player was? It would be interesting to find out how many defenders who Wilson faced the entire season will have their names on any draft board. BYU doesn't play in a conference; they play mooks.

 

That's what I was thinking as well. Take out Zach from BYU and say put same QB as say Boise State, and Boise state is just as good as good as BYU. San Diego in this example beats BYU rather easily. Instead it is BYU with the blowout wins in each game. Yeah, schedule was weaker, but there were decent opponents, even same opponents as last year or two who gave BYU trouble before, and this time Zach annihilated them. Except Coastal, where I thought he still played well, even in a loss. Even the lone INT came off hail mary 60+ yard pass at the end of half.

 

Thanks! I apologize for my reaction earlier. I thought that you were being sarcastic and intentionally twisting my words. A number of posters here do that and it gets old. I thought you were doing the same thing. I'm glad that you weren't. All's good as far as I'm concerned.

 

You're a great fan and that's what makes having these conversations about the team interesting and fun. Maybe I could have worded some things differently, but on a message board sometimes you say things that are unintentionally misleading to the other person. That's why I brought up Thuney, not to prove you wrong, but to say hey, no matter how much scouting the expert talent evaluators put into it, inevitably there are always great players that slip through the cracks. We need JD to find those hidden gems.

And if you ever disagree with me on anything, absolutely bring it up. I make dumb trade proposals, because as a fan that's what we do. You had called me out on a trade proposal I made to trade up to get Devonte Smith, so we would have the #2 and #4 picks. I realized how stupid that was after you mentioned it to me. What was I thinking, especially when I love Wilson at #2. But as a fan, sometimes you get infatuated with a player and it clouds your judgment. I might even like Waddle more than Smith. Imagine throwing to those two in college.

Anyway, I'm sure we'll disagree in the future and we may even clash because we're stubborn fans. That's why I've learned over the years to ignore who's posting and instead to just focus on the post itself. So there's never any hard feelings even when there's disagreement. We're passionate fans who are passionate about our opinions. It makes the board more fun when we have a difference of opinion. Don't hold back because of this one situation!

 

he totally nailed the Herbert over Tua

 

the problem with the caremol trade was that carmelo is a NOT A BUILD A FRANCHISE AROUND player... he's slightl less efficient than Allen Houston was

 

Thanks! You're a great fan and guy. Discussing things on the internet is a challenge. So many of us use language differently. That causes a lot of misunderstandings, and people often are talking past each other, when they really agree. Too often, we all can respond negatively rather than asking questions to clarify first. I'm as guilty of this as anyone. It's not an excuse, but yesterday when I responded in a hostile fashion I was really tired. I had worked out in the yard all day, read a couple of irrational posts from posters that drive me crazy, then read your response. I should have taken a few minutes to chill, think about it, and ask you what you meant, but didn't. My passion definitely gets in the way at times. I love intelligent discussion. I love learning, and don't mind being challenged on my opinions/thoughts, because that can help me think more clearly about things and learn that sometimes I am wrong. Because we're fans, we can all get crazy ideas sometimes about trades, keeping players, which coaches we like, etc. I truly do try to challenge people on opinions and ideas, and not make it personal. I fail sometimes, especially if there has been a history of the other person continually being obtuse or if they have made personal attacks upon me.

With regards to Thuney, yes I know that great players can be found in the middle and lower rounds. We have to hope that JD has that kind of vision/perception/analytical skills to spot those players. Now that we're drafting based on traits, character and scheme fit rather than round, I think we have a good chance of JD finding those players. That's one of the reasons I'm so optimistic about our future.

I agree, so please challenge me when you think I am wrong-headed, have a stupid idea, or am just being stubborn.

I understand getting infatuated with players. I certainly have in the past, but try not to do that now. Hopefully, I learned that when one does get infatuated with a player, it clouds one's vision, and one doesn't think rationally. I could easily get infatuated with Kadarius Toney. He is such an exciting, dynamic player. I think he would definitely make our offense more dangerous and exciting and help us win, but the better course might be taking an OG or RT or even a CB at #23, and if he's still there at #34, great, take him then, but if not, maybe focuse on trying to get Javian Hawkins or Demetric Felton later, as they could give us some of the same kind of play, just not at the same level as Toney perhaps. Then again, who knows, one could wind up being better than Toney. He may have character issues (although I haven't heard of any yet). The combination of the OG/RT and Hawkins/Felton could have a greater positive impact on the team than Toney and whatever player the Jets would take in the 4th/5th round.

Anyway, thanks again for your forgiveness, understanding, and accepting me for who I am. When this Covid crap is behind us, we have to get together for a drink and to watch a Jets game. Cheers!

 

LOL