Take a look at the Jonathan Adams thread that Vilma started in the Draft forum and watch the video he posted with it, and then consider how different Darnold would look throwing to someone like him.
I don't really care when you think about Sam, Orlovsky is such a hack. Comparing Brees, Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan who finished college in 2000, 2003, and 2007 is the dumbest thing in the world. You could still mug receivers when Ben and Brees finished. And Matt Ryan was pretty much a one-man show at BC, again before the era of mass screens and such and still a bit more liberal contact allowed.
Finally someone with the proper lack of emotion in their decision making. Yes the riskiest thing is taking another QB who is NOT Trevor Lawrence. Classic example Boom or Bust pick. and a BYU QB who played zero competition in college...in a COVID year. lol. JD will definitely not pick him and probably no one will trade up for Wilson either. the fact the Jets said their "intrigued" by him shows the lack of conviction from the FO. Unless someone ponies up a #2 for Darnold he's our QB next year. If he sucks, we let him walk, he delivers we franchise him and do a deal. Either way we can't lose because we'll have tons of cap and draft capital for anyone else to take over for the next 2-3 years. That's all JD cares about.
Sorry, but your reasoning is flawed. Sam is the most risky, and it isn't even close. The odds of him getting it together this year and becoming even an average/decent QB are probably less than 20%. His problems have more to do with his flaws (not being able to read Ds, poor decision making, awful footwork, lousy accuracy, TOs) than they do poor coaching or a lousy team around him. He will be on his 3rd new offense, 3rd HC and 3rd OC. His confidence is pretty shot. There's the opportunity to re-set the cap with a rookie QB, that would be missed. If Sam should play well, it will cost the Jets a lot more. Then there's the risk of passing on 2-3 QBs who could go on to become very good/great FQBs. Then there's the risk that if Sam should play well that he could just walk in FA. Wilson, Fields and Lance are all just as athletic as Sam, have just as strong an arm, if not stronger, are more accurate in all situations, make better decisions, are better at reading Ds, and make far fewer TOs. I think they all have higher football IQs as well. If we don't take a QB and trade down, most of those picks will probably be this year. Between them and FA this team will be a lot stronger next year, and will be drafting lower even if Sam plays in his normal, below average, inconsistent manner, unless Saleh is a failure as a HC. Next year's QB class will not be as good as this one, and with the Jets drafting lower, they'll have a much less chance of getting a potential FQB. You just aren't being realistic, and are clearly being influenced by emotion/sentimentality. I understand not wanting to give up on a QB that has a lot of physical talent and was rated so highly just 3 years ago, but we have to deal with reality and the situation as it is. It's unfortunate that the Jets didn't get their act together two years ago, but they didn't. It is time to move on.
i know that wasn't their initial plan but it sure evolved that way. i didn't say it was all by design.
Because they've probably slipped into that GM position because the franchise was not having success with the previous GM's approach and something new needs to be tried.
I'd put it even more directly: GM's clear the roster as quickly as they can because it is a bad roster - which is why the last guy got fired. Getting fired for your own mistakes sucks. Getting fired for the last guys mistakes? Well, that's a firing offense.
The flaws you point out for Sam have all been magnified by the situation around him. It’s pretty tough to have flawless mechanics when you’re getting rushed and destroyed on most drop backs, and on top of that your receivers aren’t helping out much. His Mono year 2 years ago the O-line was one of the worst I’ve ever seen in pass protection. Last year, the team was extremely thin and the receivers and oline were never all healthy at the same time. They weren’t even good units if they were all healthy. We didn’t have backups that could step right in like some other teams. Gase was below average at best and possibly much worse on top of all this. The re-setting of the rookie QB salary is probably the best argument in drafting a QB to me. I just don’t think you can bank off any of them being great though. I’ve seen too many good QB prospects turn into average at best or even busts. What makes these QBs any different? Many respected football analysts are saying we should keep Sam and trade down, so are they all wrong? I have to agree that it’s atleast an option to consider. I’m honestly not even for any one move in particular at this time as I’m weighing the positives and negatives of them all. I’m sure JD is doing the same
Good post! I agree with most of that. I just think keeping Sam is riskier because, if he continues to play like he did in 2020, and Wilson, Fields, Lance etc go on to be successful, it would be a horrendous decision by Douglas. I find that more likely to occur than Sam play great and Wilson, Fields, Lance etc all bust. I also love the fresh start approach with Douglas, Saleh and a new QB. Douglas and Saleh will make the best decision for the team though, I agree. They will evaluate Sam, and all the rookie QB's, plus free agent QB's and Watson. So you would assume all will sign off on the decision they make, and if that is to keep Sam, fans should support that. A lot of fans assume Sam won't succeed, but I think he would. No matter where he plays, he will improve a lot in 2021 from 2020, as last year was a dumpster fire.
I just think that even if we were to keep Sam and trade down, we will be set up as a team for the future even if he doesn’t improve. This is assuming we get a haul back for the 2nd overall pick. You would have the following possibilities: Sam improving, Morgan turning out to be good, a free agent or trade next year, and the draft next year to find a QB with an up and coming team with a lot of draft picks and money to spend. If you trade Sam and stay at 2, then you better hit it right or you’ll be treading water for the next few seasons waiting on the rookie to turn the corner most likely. It’s hard to explain, but if we were to keep Sam I just feel like we have more outs as no one will be married to him as the QB. If we draft a QB we’re pretty much banking the next few seasons on him as the QB. Teams rarely give up on high picks at QB before it’s too late. I don’t think all of the top QBs will bust, but history tells us that they all won’t be good, so you better choose right if that’s the way we decide to go
I understand that view and see what you mean, for sure. I'd rather have a definite QB though. No questions. No outs. You are thinking worst-case scenario with Wilson at #2 though. How about best case scenario? He is a great QB. The franchise QB the Jets have coveted for years. Saleh is a great Head Coach. And by the time he hits his prime, Douglas will have built a Super Bowl roster around him. That is the path I am seeing right now.
I’m fine with that and I’m also fine with trading down and keeping Sam for next season to see how it plays out. I don’t think you can go wrong either way. I have a feeling that JD likes Sam but still isn’t sure what he can actually be in the NFL. He will be fine with going that route, but if one of the QBs in the draft wows him then he will go that route and get what he can for Sam. I was just talking bad case scenario as we were discussing which options are riskier.
I get that anything's possible, but the odds of a QB drafted at #2 becoming a long term starter are FAR higher than the odds of a QB who started his first 3 years like Darnold becoming a long term starter. Like, many multiples higher. I know Darnold has gotten a raw deal during his first three years. We've had bad coaches and bad talent. Having said that, that's true of the situation of most QB's drafted as high as Darnold was, and he's been so bad that I can't imagine he'd be that great even with a far better situation. If you weigh the probabilities there is no scenario in which it's a smart move to bring him back instead of drafting a QB at #2. Imagine we bring him back and any one of the non-Lawrence QB's ends up being good to very good. We'd be calling for JD's head after this season. That's the kind of move a GM doesn't recover from.
Yeah, understood. Keeping Sam is also saying "I don't think Wilson or Fields or Lance or Jones or Trask, etc will be as good as Sam and whatever picks/players the Jets acquire." I would be surprised if Douglas felt that way. Yep. That is exactly right. And if you reverse it, Sam plays great elsewhere and the new rookie QB struggles with the Jets, I think fans would give Douglas more of a break because the move was understandable. Keeping Sam, he flops, and the other QB's succeed, is not acceptable or understandable. It would be fireable. Right now Joe Douglas is picking his QB. This will be the QB connected to Douglas. Connected to Robert Saleh too. I'm not sure they can logically pick Sam to hitch their wagon to over the other guys.
I just disagree on the “many multiples higher” argument. 2nd QB’s drafted in the last few years as high picks where there were multiple QBs drafted high: - Tua (Who knows but Miami isn’t even sold) - Daniel Jones (Average at best wouldn’t be happy with him) - Darnold himself - Mahomes (HOF) - Wentz (Bust at this point - traded away by original team) - Mariota (Backup, fringe starter) - RG3 (Injuries but bust) - Jake Locker (Bust) - Sanchez (lol) That’s a pretty sorry list and many of these guys were hyped up as much, if not more than Wilson and Fields.
Sorry but I don't think it's the type of thing you can disagree with. I'm basing my claims on 25 years of evidence for how often highly drafted QB's become long term starters and how often QB's who start their careers like Darnold do the same. There's about a 5-10% chance of a Darnold-like QB ever becoming average (average, not even good) and about a 40% chance of a QB drafted in the first round becoming a long term starter. You could disagree with the methodology used, I guess, but the numbers are the numbers.
My list is probably more relevant than a blanket statement of 25 years of 1st round QBs as it’s atleast similar situations in recent years. It also takes out the 1st overall studs and late first round QBs which are taken by better teams. Even that is not the correct way to look at it but I just listed it to show that highly touted QBs in the draft are very far from a sure thing (which you understand, I get it) I just disagree with you in Sam’s potential and that’s fine. I’m not against the rookie QBs at all either as I’ve said in other posts, and I actually may prefer that route. Just looking at all angles...
I agree with you on just about everything except this. I don't think JD likes Sam at all. If he did, he would keep him, possibly trade down, and gets tons and tons of picks since the #2 is worth a ton. If he liked Sam, the #2 would be on the block right now. The #2 pick is not on the block at least nothing we've heard so far. Goodbye Sam. I never would have drafted him.
A smaller sample size is rarely more relevant than a larger one. I think if anything the odds of a QB taken in the first round becoming a long term starter are even higher over the last 10 years than the last 25, given how pass-friendly the rules of the game have become.
