There is only so much you can plan at a QB position as far as premier options. The dominos of Stafford, Wentz, Goff have fallen. These were pro bowl type of players (at least formerly), where they lock up your starting spot. Now whoever brings guys in via free agency or trade, it's just to compete for a starting job or be a back up. As much as folks like Sam, he is not going to be a #1 starting option for any team at this stage. Wherever he comes in, he will either compete for a starting job or be a back-up who will learn and perhaps step in for the starter at some point in the year. Let's say draft comes along, and Panthers want to get Lance. Maybe he off the board before their pick or they try to trade up, but fail. They can then consider Sam, who is only a year older than seniors in this draft, and pay more to get him than before they thought they could score Lance to develop for a year under Teddy. Or Washington is looking at Mac Jones, who also gets off the board. All of the sudden, Sam is looking better. The point is, short of a good offer now, which I doubt we got, it just makes no sense to declare that we decided to move on from Sam, like Eagles did. In fact, by saying we will wait, teams might offer more. And if not, it's fine too. There is no hurry, no desperation. If someone offers a good value, we take it. If not, let's see what happens during the draft with other QB needy teams. Just a wise move by JD all around to declare we are still looking at QB prospects, so that there is no gun to our head. And comes April, if no good offers, he may say we are still evaluating up till the actual draft. Now, I do think Sam gets traded during or prior to draft, I don't think it will drag on for too much longer once we draft a QB at #2.
I agree in terms of the premier options, but as there are no more premier options outside of Watson. Prescott (at least according to many posters) or the draft, once FA begins, at some point GMs/teams will want to nail things down for the upcoming season as much as they can. They will sign a FA QB to compete or start. Prescott might still be available. Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor will be available and there are worse options to start. Teddy Bridgewater will probably be available. The Panthers are getting dangerously close to burning their bridge with him. Trubisky will be available. Fitzpatrick will be available. The Jets aren't going to keep 4 QBs. They already have Morgan. They may want to sign Beathard since he already knows the offense. If so, that only leaves room for one QB. They won't be able to keep Sam and draft a rookie. More than likely, they would then opt to trade Sam and draft a rookie. Other teams will know that, and the Jets would then have to accept the best offer, which might be lower at that point or just wind up releasing him. Whereas I agree that Sam shouldn't be a starting option this year, I think there will be some teams who think he is. I'd be surprised if anyone trades for him and then extends him or picks up his $25 million option for next year. I think if they trade for him it will be as their starter or to compete for the starting job, and if he plays well, then they'll seek to extend him. I agree that it makes no sense to declare now that we are moving on from Sam, but I also don't think that the Jets can afford to wait until after FA begins. They need to do their due diligence on prospects, but they also need to maximize the value for Sam. I think it would be a big mistake not to trade Sam well prior to the draft, and I would be surprised if JD waits that long. If he does, then I doubt they will draft a QB. They will just roll with Sam, which will be an even bigger mistake. He cannot afford to get greedy.
there's only 4 realistic options for JD imo - Taking Wilson, Fields or Lance @2, or trading 2 and keeping Darnold. We have too many holes on the roster to take a non-QB prospect to pass up. Right now, I'm in the take a QB at 2 camp but again this situation is very fluid
We are probably talking about a 3d/4th round pick at this stage. I think if we had a second rounder, JD would pull the trigger. We can easily wait until free agency begins, and still get Beathard, then trade Sam at some point later. Sam at this point of time is not a star player. He does not have a big contract. He is basically still a younger prospect with some talent and NFL experience. Just to get SOME pick for him, we can do that during draft. All I am saying is that, if a good offer comes along, do it. If some mid round offer comes along, wait for the draft to see how things play out at QB, and I think we can get this type of offer or perhaps better then.
I agree, with everything except waiting until the draft. Teams generally don't trade players during the draft. It's not as if it's never happened, but I'd imagine once the draft starts, if he's on the roster he'll be on the roster at least until the draft is over.
Max, your whole post is what comes to mind when we talk about trading away our premium draft cap (for Watson) and then rely on our non-premium picks to build a power house team. Too many fans say "We will have plenty of draft ammo left over to build a solid team". Will we? What do you think.
Well ultimately it depends on how much the Jets would give up to get Watson, but even if it's 3 or 4 first round picks, they could still build a good team. There is less room for error with drafting players, and I wouldn't't say they would still have "plenty" of draft picks, but they would have enough to get it done I think. The Jets would probably not be a great team in 2021 if they drafted a new QB, so I figure that they would probably not be a great team if they traded for Watson either. I'm ok with that though, because Watson is young and the Jets would have a QB for many years with a more competitive roster. I think people's mistake with the Watson situation is that they see those draft picks and they feel like they will be huge assets for the 2021 season, and you have to remember even players like Quinnen are often not that productive in year one. Who knows what the final price for Watson ends up being though.
The Jets went 2-14 last year. If they take a rookie and start him we're probably looking at 2-5 wins this year. Maybe 7 at the outside. This is not the 6-10 Steelers with a roster just missing a QB who take Big Ben and go 15-1. We're not even in the same galaxy that team was in.
You don't need to use the Steelers as an example to make that point. We're not even in the Mark Sanchez Jets galaxy.
It's a 2 edged sword really. If you have a top 2-3 FQB, you probably don't need a generational Defense to compete at the highest levels. But if you DO have a gen-D, you probably don't absolutely need a top 2-3 FQB. Seems like the last 20 SBs have been won by either great QB or great D. Nothing else seems to matter. So ya, I guess if we DO get Watson maybe we won't need a 'top team' to compete, so we could maybe survive with lesser draft picks. Use what's left on oline and defense. Thanks for your reply.
For sure, and it’s a lot harder to try and maintain a championship level defense year in and year out. Elite QB’s generally play at an elite level more consistently than a team can manage to field an elite defense. How many teams have had an elite defense as consistently as guys like Brady, Brees, Mahomes, Roethlisberger etc have played at elite levels? There’s just more variance when you have to rely on more players to make it happen.
If we get Deshaun Watson in anything but a fire sale the odds are 50/50 or better we don't see a winning season in whatever span of time it takes us to realize that there are no quick fixes for bad teams in the NFL. It'll be like waiting on the tooth fairy, only this version doesn't come for the tooth tucked away under your pillow it comes with a hammer and pliers and takes the ones still in your mouth instead.
Every QB you just named has had a ton of help on offense and defense over the course of their careers. When they didn't, see Brees from 2012-2016, they were a loser. There is no QB in NFL history who has consistently won when he was the whole show. Joe Namath was a great QB before the injuries did him in but the thing that really did him in is that by 1970 the Jets had a roster that looked a lot like the one we have had the last few years.
Well they weren’t losers, they had a few 9-7 or 8-8 years. Teams without elite QB play drop way lower. And I wasn’t specifically referring to wins, I was referring to consistency of play.
Drew Brees went 7-9 4 years out of 5 from 2012 to 2016 while playing at a Pro Bowl level the whole time. He actually made the Pro Bowl in 3 of the 7-9 seasons. How did that happen? The Saints sucked balls as a team for most of the span and when your team sucks balls it just makes the Pro Bowl QB the head ball licker.
I think the part that bothers me is the talk track about giving away three first rounders plus and then saying we’ll still have plenty of draft ammo. We won’t. We’d be down one first rounder in the next two years ... simple math, right? We have five in three years. We’d be left with two. We’d be BELOW average picks....and I don’t care that we still have a coup,e second rounders and third rounders. Yes you can find great players....but the odds are lower. If we even had an average roster it would be possible I guess. But we have holes literally at every single position other than LT and DT. That’s it. We need pass rushers, corners, LBs, OL, WR, TE, and probably RB. It’s a lot. I think we’d be asking Watson to overcome a below average roster again, at least for a year or two....it’ll be tough. he couldn’t do it in Houston last year. im not saying it can’t work....I love the QB....but I’m not rushing to rely on second and third round picks to build a great roster. And it’s not like we have a lot of tradable assets to recoup more picks. The only players anyone would likely trade for are Q and Becton. Darnold could be traded, but the return is nebulous....is it a late first? Is it a second? A conditional pick? Hard to know. I guess I’d we can trade Darnold for a late first and include that as one of the three first rounders it becomes way more attractive....
Absolutely. It's easier to up grade ONE position than an entire defense. Well, it SHOULD be easier, but finding a top 2-3 FQB turns out aint too easy after all. We have a legit shot at Waston, which would but us in a different class (finally). BUT imagine for a moment that our ONLY QB options going forward for the next 4-5 years was Sammy/Fields/Wilson. I think THAT scenario puts us in the class of needing a generational defense to make a serious go of it (redo of '09 '10). And if thats the path, then keeping Sam might put us ahead of the game, plus leaving all our resources to get our oline and gen-d going. I'm sure JD would love to have both....the cap he'd spend on Sam, and the #2 he'd spend on fields/wilson, but he'll have to decide. Cap space, draft picks. Cap space, draft picks. decisions decisions.
