You never know, he may be willing to rework that deal if he's happy here. Unlikely, but not an impossibility But why do you think their ceiling would be 7-9? Especially 2-3 years from now when we have no idea what the roster would look like.
Their ceiling in 2021 would be about 7-9. What their chances would be down the road would depend on how many picks JD hit on - minus whatever he traded to get Watson, whether Watson stayed healthy, whether Watson stayed happy, etc. Ceiling if they got lucky on all of the preceding would be at best Russell Wilson on the Seahawks territory or about 11-5. I just don't get what league you guys are all watching that makes you want to pay a premium to take on Watson's contract. We're not the Chiefs. The talent is not stacked to make a run right now and nobody else paying that kind of money to their QB has a realistic shot at a SB, which is why Russell Wilson wants out in Seattle. Are you guys all so desperate for a sweet taste in your mouth that cotton candy looks good right now? Cuz our brand of cotton candy wouldn't taste all that good.
Not only have we tried it, the Jets have spent the following draft resources on QB since 2009 with bottom of the league production from the position: #6 overall #17 overall SIX 2nd round picks 2 4th round picks and a 6th and 7th rounder. We could give up less to get Watson and have top 3 production for the next 10 years.
That's because the Jets absolutely blow chunks at drafting or at least until JD they did. If you cannot draft you cannot win in the NFL. That's true if you have Deshaun Watson and it is true if you do not.
I guess it is because people are sick to the back teeth of being shit and losing badly, guessing at one of the three QB's available or sticking with Sam is another massive risk, which at the end of the day could see us back here again inside 3 years. Taking Watson and his not that horrific contract, cheap as fuck next year and then easily reworked if he wants a team to play with and the Jets under the cap space required, the man is already swimming in dollars. Anyway, all depends on how well JD can draft and pick his way through FA, the thing about free agency though is, other players will sit up and take notice if the Jets signed Watson, they may see a team being built and ready to go inside 2 seasons and want to be a part of it. And even if we go the draft route for a QB then at some point if we strike lucky we are going to have one of these horrific contracts of our own anyway, take out the doubts and trade for the QB that has shown the league he is one of the best out there and has 10 years+ to give 15 if you want to Brady him. On my part, conjecture maybe, hopes definitely.
Having a cheap rookie QB remains the ideal way to contend, we've just selected very poor rookie QB's.
This is a fallacy though. Deshaun Watson has already had two knee surgeries. He has been surrounded by talent in Houston, talent that began to decline last year when his contract became a focal point in whether the team felt they could keep one of the top 5 WR's in the NFL over the long-term and also sign Watson long-term. He went 4-12 having one of the best seasons a QB has ever put up. I believe no QB has ever lost more games while having a Pro Bowl caliber year. Transplant him from the Texans to the Jets and the odds are you just bring his peculiar curse along with him. It wasn't an accident that the Texans went 4-12 last season. You see this as the Jets getting top 3 production for 10 years. The more likely result is the Jets getting top 10 production for 3 years before we have to move on to whatever is next.
True but it makes winning easier when you can count on having someone good in the most important position at least. That would be a refreshing change as well
What's the alternative? Great, established QB's don't become available very often, and when they do it's for a hefty price.
Yup, all true. And we are in a rare position where one of them is available and we have the collateral to make it happen. The alternative is Deshaun Watson baby
Lots of teams have been mediocre with a great QB. The Saints losing for most of a 5 year span despite having Brees. (Too much money on Brees, mediocre drafting.) The Lions going o-fer-Matthew Stafford's career. (Horrible ownership.) The Chargers going 77-83 over a decade of Philip Rivers. (All of the aforementioned.) It takes a team to win in the NFL and having a bright shiny toy at the helm doesn't change that. Deshaun Watson would be a bright shiny toy on the Jets and then the losing would likely continue and we'd get the same treatment the Texans are getting now. yeah, McNair and Easterby are a clown show but...
Watson has only had 3 full seasons. In those 3 full seasons, when the head coach wasn't fired, he won his division both times with a combined 21-10 record. He's also been behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league his entire career. Blaming Watson for the Texans record last season is ridiculous. There is a much better chance of Watson being a top QB for the next 10 years than for any QB the Jets draft this year or next year having a successful career. But please, tell me the trades/picks/signings you think the Jets should make this year and how many years you expect this plan will take for the Jets to compete for a division title.
It will take fewer years to become a real contender if the Jets use those draft picks to build a team than if they splurge on a shiny new marketing tool.
That's an oversimplification of the situation though. We wouldn't just be swapping a rookie QB for Watson, we'd be swapping a rookie QB on a cheap contract plus 2-3 more first round pick players for Watson. The equation is a lot more complex. It's not "would you rather have a rookie QB or Watson?" it's "would you rather have a rookie QB playing for peanuts plus 2-3 more first rounders playing for peanuts or Watson playing for a ton of money?"
The Saints 5 year stretch was during the bountygate punishment when their head coach was suspended and they lost 2 2nd round picks. Watson is already on a higher career trajectory than Rivers or Stafford.
