Darnold, Fields, Wilson, Jones, Trask, Lance

Discussion in 'Draft' started by NOVAJET, Dec 28, 2020.

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Fields, Wilson or Darnold

  1. Fields

    22.0%
  2. Wilson

    26.3%
  3. Darnold

    31.7%
  4. Other - Explain

    10.8%
  5. Watson: 3 1st's

    9.1%
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  1. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

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    Everyone knew who Kirk was. I just think that stats and PFF can be misleading.
     
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  2. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

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    Fields is more pro ready 100% just on level of competition alone he’s far more pro ready. Plus he is also playing with several potential pro teammates and Days offence has a lot of pro elements to it as well.

    I think you can start Fields Day 1 and he will have a greater chance of success than Wilson Day 1. Both have a similar ceiling and floor as prospects but Wilson is a small school strong arm prospect and those kids simply need to get up to speed during practice and 2nd team reps. Fields would also benefit from watching for a year as well to be honest but if we’re talking day 1 starter it’s not even close.
     
  3. This is the lone aspect i wIll defend Wilson on. BYU is the farthest thing from a small school & is a historically successful football program w a longstanding tradition not to mention a good set of NFL alums at the QB position..

    Every mormon football player in America..and there are some damn good ones,dream of being a BYU Cougar.

    Jim Mcmahon.Steve Young.Ty Detmer.Koy Detmer.John Beck. Also had #1 overall QB recruit a number of yrs back in Ben olsen.

    Not every good prospect goes power 5 & there are plenty of perfectly worthy FBS & yes even FCS programs players come from

    Now excuse me whole i go shower this Wilson love off of me..
     
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  4. Borat

    Borat Well-Known Member

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    I looked at the defense rankings of teams top prospects faced, and here are these rankings (by PFF):

    Trevor Lawrence: 12, 16, 24, 51, 56, 61, 62, 90, 99, >200.
    Zach Wilson: 6, 9, 15, 36, 52, 53, 65, 70, 79, 101, 126, >200
    Justin Fields: 7, 13, 29, 33, 55, 58, 73, 93

    Of course the rankings are subjective to some degree, but the bottom line here is that the narrative that Wilson played against cupcake schedule, bad defenses he could abuse at will, etc, compared to others and padded his stats is not really true, at least according to this. Yes, some cupcakes, but really faced enough good defenses, and did well in every game. Fields had the hardest defenses according to this, but if you look top 8 for Wilson and compare to all 8 of Fields, Wilson has faced some tough defenses as Fields did too, and played well against these each time.
     
    #2224 Borat, Feb 17, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2021
  5. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    One other "plus" playing at a school like BYU is that while the level of competition isn't as high as OSU/Clemson/Alabama, neither are the players around him as high, so more responsibility is on his shoulders to carry the team. The "lesser talent" issue cuts both ways.

    Don't worry, I wasn't going to anoint you as a Wilson convert!:p
     
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  6. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    Well again stats are relative and subjective, but that said, if you're using the same subjective analysis for all three QBs in this case, there is some merit to the comparison. Still, the problem with college stats is that there are so many variables that it's almost impossible to get reliable comparisons. I think they're useful for some context and high level comparisons, but it really comes down to studying their tape of their performances, and then seeing them in person and interviewing them. And frankly, if I were a GM I would also be interviewing the people that know them well, and who have played with them and coached them as far back as I could because I believe things like "winner's mentality" show up very early in one's development.
     
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  7. JohnnyP123456

    JohnnyP123456 Well-Known Member

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    Let's have some fun over here shall we?



     
  8. Borat

    Borat Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree, it is VERY high level. Who knows if San Diego State is really # 6 defense or Troy #15 or Houston is as good as they say. But we can say at high level these are decent defenses and to put together a great game against them is a good accomplishment that wouldn't be considered a cupcake type of schedule.
     
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  9. zace

    zace Well-Known Member

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    There were people arguing with me on here to the death about him. The stats were dead on with him.

    I think they are great especially when correlating the eye test.

    Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
     
  10. zace

    zace Well-Known Member

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    I don't see it with Fields, he has a long way to go and struggles getting thru reads. Thats something you can see on film. His arm talent is very inconsistent to me.

    I think he has the longest way to go out of the big 3.

    Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
     
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  11. BacktoQueens

    BacktoQueens Well-Known Member

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    BYU 2020 schedule:
    Navy Midshipmen
    Troy Trojans
    Louisiana St Bulldogs
    UTSA Roadrunners
    Houston Cougars
    Texas St Bobcats
    WKU Hilltoppers
    Boise St Broncos
    North Alabama Lions
    Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
    San Diego St Aztecs
    Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl: UCF Knights

    How is that not a cupcake schedule?
    There are a few teams on there I never even heard of.

    You can only play the hand you're dealt, but let's not pretend that this isn't a very soft schedule.
     
    #2231 BacktoQueens, Feb 17, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2021
  12. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

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    Aren't the defenses he faced more relevant to our evaluation of Wilson?
     
  13. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    I've already had this discussion with him and there's no convincing him. BYU is basically a power 5 team and recruit at that level. They play and compete with a number of different Pac-12 teams every year and usually a Big Ten or SEC team each year. They had to reverse course on their schedule and scramble since the Power 5 only played in conference games.

    It's a lot easier to have a higher net defensive rankings in a worse conference. Not to mention his best game came against a UCF defense that allowed 404 yards on 69% completion percentage and 4 touchdowns to USF's quarterback named Jordan McCloud who couldn't even hold the starting job all year.
     
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  14. jilozzo

    jilozzo Well-Known Member

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    IMO wilson is the pick at 2 and will define the next 3 years of NYJ football.
     
  15. apjbfc

    apjbfc Well-Known Member

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    Draft season.

    It's time to play games isn't it.

    Sent from my M2007J20CG using Tapatalk
     
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  16. Borat

    Borat Well-Known Member

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    I would not consider Troy, Houston, San Diego, Coastal, Boise St, UCF, UTSA cupcakes. To play impressively against them in every game should not be frowned upon. I mean Trevor also faced teams like Fresno State, Georgia Tech, Citadel. With much more talented roster than BYU. Comparatively speaking, not saying it's the hardest schedule, but it's a mix.

    UCF's defense was not highly ranked on the list I gave, only 79. He did play well against them too, but also against better defenses as well, like San Diego. And that's the point, there were enough decent teams/defenses he did well against, where even if you remove the cupcakes, there is still a spectacular result against decent opposition. Do you agree at least with that point?
     
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  17. barfolomew

    barfolomew Well-Known Member

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    What a crock of shit! Whoever has wilson above lawrence is insane. Nfl play may prove me wrong but everything those twp have showed so far puts them worlds apart for me.
     
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  18. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    I think considering BYU has near power 5 level competition, the fact that they beat up on a bunch of group of 5 teams is in no way impressive.

    There's a reason in normal years that teams like Texas and Texas A&M schedule Louisiana Tech and Texas State as their first game of the season. To beat the shit out of them and warm their offense up before heading into conference play.

    But you're trying to weight all defensive rankings as equal in college football and not weighting the fact that the talent gap between the Power 5 and Group of 5 is drastically different.

    There's a reason BYU was 2-2 against P5 teams in 2019 and 2-3 against them in 2018 including two games they lost by one score. They beat Wisconsin who was a pre-season ranked top ten team in 2018.
     
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  19. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Here's a good compilation of data that proves the gap in between Power 5 versus Group of 5.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/commen..._source=amp&utm_medium=&utm_content=post_body

    BYU played 9 of their games against the AAC, Sun Belt and Conference USA.

    The Sun Belt is 5-82 against Power 5 over the last five years.

    The AAC is 36-77 against Power 5 over the last five years.

    Conference USA is 11-107 against Power 5 over the last five years.
     
  20. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for this. I was able to watch it on one sitting. I wish I had thought to take notes of things as it played but I didn't, so I'll have to rely on my memory.

    My main take aways:

    1. Wilson has an NFL arm. Not as big as Mahomes or Allen, but not far short.
    2. He makes plays. By that I don't mean that he succeeds at every attempt, but when under pressure, he keeps the play alive until he can do something with it, and while he doesn't always complete the pass, he often does, and most of the other times he throws it away and avoids the sack. He's sacked very few times and those were mainly blown blocking assignments that allowed a free runner in. This playmaking is one of his strengths, similar to Mahomes and Watson (and LAJet mentioned Montana, and I'd concur).
    3. He's very accurate, especially on deep balls (20+ yards in the air), but he's not perfect. That said, no one is, not even Mahomes or Rogers, but he does need to continue to work on his footwork which can get a little sloppy at times affecting his accuracy. On that point, overall he has very good footwork and mechanics, but when he gets into a "gunslinger" mode, these aspects break down - I think a good NFL CS can address this issue with him.
    4. He's "deceptively" athletic - quicker than he looks. This is definitely a functional part of his game that an offense can take advantage of.
    5. He doesn't panic when he or his team is struggling. Against Houston they were behind at the half, and he led them to a win going away. There were a few other games where they were struggling but he kept his composure and led them to wins. The one game they lost, against Coastal Carolina, he was being targeted and the refs allowed the "chippy" stuff, but he didn't let it rattle him and while it wasn't a great game for him in the normal sense, it showed that he can handle a lot of pressure and still put up positive numbers and keep his team in it. And one other aspect of that game, CC was greatly aided by some questionable calls. The first TD by BYU was negated by a holding penalty, and there were two big non-PI calls - one at the end of the first half on the goal line where the receiver was actually being pulled down and there was no call. Contrary to what some people claimed, this was not a "terrible game" by Wilson or BYU, CC was lucky to have won and it was a home game for them, and a short week of prep for BYU.

    To sum it all up, I'm not anywhere near the talent evaluator that some here are, but personally I'd feel confident in taking Wilson at #2. I just get that "IT" factor from him, and he's not gimmicky or coming from a gimmicky offense - he's legit. I haven't seen enough of Lawrence, but IMO - for what it's worth - I think Wilson will be better.
     
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