Then disagree w me Craig. im tired of box score scouts poisoning draft talk year after year. Same logic that crucified josh Alllen & Mahomes while hoisting the likes of Johnny Manziel.
Yes, I am taking the opposite approach and including advanced statistical analysis in it and also factoring the historical aspect of it. Along with contribution to the team in the context of the team history. Looking at high school evaluations and athletics tests before they even got to College. Watching interviews with the prospects and reading about them to learn about their character and leadership traits. Watching ALL film footage - every play of every game this year as well as detailed breakdowns by reputable former QB/Coaches. This should not be considered by any reasonable person as ignoring actual evaluation. This IS actual evaluation. And it tells me that Zach is real deal, with medical evaluation/measurements still yet to be verified.
@KurtTheJetsFan does bring up one good point that I am worried about: Zach Wilson really had ONE good season. And it was during a pandemic and at BYU. How will that translate playing in a stadium with 90,000 fans against NFL talent? It is a valid concern.
Fair enough. i truly couldnt disagree more w your process,your assessment & most importantly your conclussion. My track record on this site for evaluation speaks for itself dating back nearly 2 decades & many debates in which ive been disrespected. Usually in the minority.and thats fine. Zach Wilson at the 2nd pick is a joke.
Agree. Have been guilty of it myself. People want to use stats/metric/etc. to bend the argument to whatever they want, but only to the point they want it stop at. For instance people want to say Wilson is a better prospect than Darnold... look at the metrics!!!! On the surface it sounds good - But the metrics not only show him better than Darnold but also better the anyone else in the 2018 class, better than Lawrence and better than Mahomes, Watson were, etc.. If we judged purely on metrics Lawrence would be ranked 5th in the class behind - 1. Wilson 2. Mac Jones 3. Kyle Trask 4. Justin Fields 5. Trevor Lawrence With that said, I actually like Wilson + feel we should move on from Darnold at this point but I won’t go so far as saying Wilson was a better college prospect...
So based on your evaluation of the options, do you see any QB worth the second pick, or just roll with Sam again? I’m far from a QB savvy fan, but I don’t see Sam having the pocket presence nor the quick field reading ability to take us to the level we envision for a QB.
Before even getting into the tape... -Medical history -Questions about character -Questions about leadership -1 year of production during a covid season in which his team lost to an FCS opponent Certainly not a dealbreaker if the prospect has the upside to offset that risk.. But then you put on the tape & what exactly IS the upsiide? Hes already got good mechanics,already going through progressions,maybe he puts on 5-10 lbs of lower torque??? He kind of is what he is. Does he have elite arm talent? No.Is he an elite athlete? No.Is he winning w intangibles? Well given the red flags outlined above most likely not. Folks wanna ride stats & mechanics as if hes a safe pick..well wait a minute..how safe is he really? He doesnt make much sense from a risk management perspective.And to take him at 2 after one of the worst season’s in team history? To start a new regime? Hard pass
? Mahomes had good stats in college, the argument against him was that his mechanics were all over the place. Similar to the Wilson situation to be honest. Josh Allen is a total outlier so he's a terrible candidate to make your case with. He played very poorly his first two years and might honestly be the only QB ever to improve as much as he did after his first two years. Big armed, inaccurate college QB's bust about 100x as often as they become top QB's like Allen did. None of us are saying stats are everything, we're saying they're a piece of the puzzle.
My thing is unless you thnk Sam is definitely going to be better, why not reset the clock and get 3 more years of cheap QB play? To me, Fields, Wilson and Sam all have question marks, but it just makes no sense financially to stick w Sam.
So do i think Sam can rebound? Absolutely. in a perfect world would i like to move on w a different QB? Yes. But im not enamored w Wilson or Fields.Id take Lance at 2..but not if we can get him between 6-10.
There were some stats pertaining to Mahomes being an air raid QB & those that came before him. Also remember people actually claiming he wasnt accurate w some questionable metrics.. The Allen thing coincides quite nicely.PFF likes to pick & choose subjective metrics to tally up that supposedly predict future outcomes. The tight window metrics completely destroyed Allen & folks ate it right up along w completion %. But thats where “college isnt the pros” & projection come into play.There were those of us that knew all that narrative was BS. Projection won the day.It was all there on tape
I like this take, because it is true and your honest view. I have read two extremes on Wilson though. Evaluators either love him and think he is the #2 pick or think he is not even worth a 1st round pick. It is odd. I guess you get that with some prospects. It will come down to what Joe Douglas thinks.
I mean, Allen has had 2 full seasons of horrendous accuracy and 1 full season of good accuracy. Not exactly a shining exemplar to prove that PFF's accuracy stats on him were wrong. And again, he's pretty much the only QB ever to improve his accuracy as much as he has. Relax.
Um, it’s a good thing that he already has good mechanics and goes through progressions. Are we looking for bad players just because they might get better? JoSh AlLen bAby!
And my argument was he has enough tools to offset his ball placement & the ceiling to improve it which he has. People overrated ball placement & vastly underestimated Allen’s ability to overcome it & eventually improve upon it. People on here thought he’d never complete an NFL pass.He was supposedly Hack 2.0.
UM... We’re looking for players that already have a quality skill set w room for improvement so they have somewhere to go w their development when they inevitably struggle. In Wilson’s case..how is he getting better beyond NFL coaching-system acclimation?Because right now he diesnt have a top 5 skillset
I still need to watch tape on these guys but I just thought that was an absurd comment. Sorry. You want guys w good mechanics and can read the field rather than teaching someone those things. I’m sure Wilson has areas he can improve.
Nobody could’ve predicted that improvement, although I guess you did so congrats. Idk how you project improvement.
