I wouldn't pay any attention to this as it's not being put in the correct context...it's not a trade "being discussed", this person pulled if from Dan Bruler's (the Athletic) mock draft...here's what Dan mentioned as the mock scenario...and it's not based on any insider information, he's just forecasting a possible scenario while connecting dots on his own...Personally, and I'm a Sam guy, if you can get that trade you do it in a minute...getting a #2 and moving up 11 spots in the first round is almost like completely undoing the original trade for the Colts #3 pick...almost...then what you have is a 3 year rental experiment with Sam, that didn't work basically at the cost of 1 #2 pick...pretty fair deal: Here's the full trade from Brugler's mock: New York Jets receive: 2021 first-round pick (No. 12 overall) 2022 second-round pick San Francisco 49ers receive: 2021 first-round pick (No. 23 overall) QB Sam Darnold
I doubt there is a legitimate chance of this happening. Just out of curiosity, I consulted the infallible draft value chart for 2021. I don't remember who said it, but I read Darnold's value around the league was two second round picks. I believe it was Schefter a while back, but I'm not quite sure. The difference between the Jets first rounder and the 49ers first rounder is 440 points. That would be good for the 46th pick in the draft (aka a second round pick). That combined with a second rounder in 2022, matches up perfectly with what Schefter (or Rappaport) said Darnold's value was a while back. Originally I thought this trade was pie in the sky, but through the draft value lens, maybe its not as crazy as once thought.
that San Francisco trade would be great for both teams. Obviously we would benefit from getting the 12 overall and I do think Darnold would be best suited on the west coast. Shanahan might be able to fix him and revive his career
You have a point to a degree. It's a complicated situatoin with a lot of different factors/influences. IMO it's just as much a logical fallacy to assume that because Darnold was a very good/great prospect 3 years ago that he can be fixed as it is to assume that because he has played so badly that he can't be fixed. IMO one has to look at all the underlying reasons (not excuses) WHY he has played so poorly, what his flaws are, what his part in all this is, and how long it could take for him to turn things around. Those answers aren't crystal clear, and they aren't necessarily separate, but rather interconnected, and there are no guarantees. It's not just a matter of physical ability. We all know that he has talent. We all know that Gase and Gase's system were not what was right for Sam. We all know that Sam has regressed, but why has he regressed? Is it just a matter of his having picked up some bad habits or concepts during his two years under Gase, or are there basic, underlying issues that go back to his days at USC? Are his problems purely physical, or are there mental/emotional aspects that are causing the problems? We also all know that it would be better for the team and they could perhaps rebuild faster if Sam could quickly turn things around and fulfill his potential, but is that even still possible, and if so, how long could that take, and is the team willing to struggle and wait that long? One also has to look at our new OC's, QB Coach's and HC's ability and experience with developing QBs (or lack thereof). One has to take into consideration whether one is willing to try to extend Sam but not pick up the 5th year option. One has to take into accounting whether Sam would be willing to accept a cheaper extension rather than the 5th year option being picked up. One has to take into consideration the costs to the team capwise, to the rebuild/success on the field if they give him another chance and he fails, and what they could lose in terms of compensation if they trade him now vs. seeing him walk as a FA at the end of the season. One has to know all the facts such as is it just rumor that Sam refused to change his footwork, or is it fact? One has to know his football IQ for certain, his coachability, and how difficult it is to make fundamental changes to footwork, mental approach/mindset, etc. One also needs to know the cost of each of the options, how realistic each of those options truly is, and do a risk assessment. How risky is each of the options, and how bad would it be if that option failed vs how bad would it be if one or more of the other options failed? One also has to take emotion out of the equation, and look at it objectively, not subjectively, i.e., one has to forget about how much one likes Sam, how much of a great guy on thinks he is, and how much better/easier it would be for the Jets if he can be fixed here this year. That's where the reality comes in. With his contract situation, with the degree of flaws that he has at present, with having to learn yet another new offense this year, it's very unlikely that he could play at even an average level, much less at a high level. While it is definitely possible that Sam can improve and play better, the bottom line is how much can he improve, is it even possible for him to still reach the potential he had coming out of USC, and if so, how long would that take? IMO the bigger risks are all on trying to roll with Sam and hope that he can not only fulfill his potential, but turn things around quickly. I just don't think that is possible, and I don't think that it's probably possible here with the Jets, not only because of the trauma and bad times he's had here, but because we have a rookie HC and OC, neither of whom have ever developed/fixed a QB, and it's uncertain whether our QB Coach has. I think that Sam needs a change of scenery and a HC/OC/QB Coach that are experienced in fixing/developing QBs and adopting their systems to what their QB can do well, and we just can't offer him those things. For his benefit, I think he needs to go elsewhere, and I know for our benefit that he needs to go elsewhere. I wish him well, and hope he can get traded to a team that can help him.
What I get out of all of this is that the decision of whether to keep or get rid of Darnold has a LOT of different factors that have to be answered, and therefore it's not as simple as just saying "Get rid of Darnold, he sucks", which I know you're not really saying here, but others have. It may well be that they should get rid of him - I think they should myself - but for all the aspects you detailed, these are things that Douglas and Saleh have to decide and none of know that, and I don't believe anyone's posts here are used by Douglas as part of his decision making process.
I also think a lot of it has to do with how many options are available this off-season in both free agency and the draft. Along with having lots of draft picks and cap flexibility. And how many guys are going to be traded. Look back at the 2009 and 2010 drafts and off-season. Look at 2019 as @HomeoftheJets pointed out in another thread. If there weren't as many options or 3-5 first round projected prospects (depending on how the NFL views Trask and Jones) then I think people would be more lenient with hanging out one more season with Darnold. I'd estimate this is going to be the most QB movement in the history of the league. We've already seen five teams commit to changes (Lions, Rams, Eagles, Colts, Saints), and we're 5 weeks away from free agency.
I hope the bottom line in bold is true, but there isn't exactly a scarcity of available options considering Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Deshaun Watson, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Newton, Mitchell Trubisky, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, Andy Dalton, Jimmy Garoppolo and even to a wilder extend Derek Carr, Russell Wilson and such are still floating out there. And I understand that Darnold might be a better option then some of these.
That's a bad deal for the 49ers, unless they are certain Sam will be a Franchise QB. How much would it cost to jump from #23 to #12 in the draft? I would assume something valuable. Maybe a 2nd round pick? So to do that, plus get a 2nd round pick would be wild. The 49ers would hope and assume that 2nd is a late pick though in the lower 50's or early 60's. 2 2nd's for Sam seems like great value.
I dunno. JD just got 2 firsts plus a 3rd for a safety. He should have no problem getting 2 firsts+ for a potential FQB.
I'm convinced we're being trolled at this point. The bad takes and ignoring of evidence to the contrary are just too much.
Of course, and that says nothing. Do you really frequent a Jets forum just to repeatedly say "either this or that could happen"? Of course not. What we're trying to determine is what actions are most likely to be good for our team. And in the case of Darnold the evidence is overwhelming that the best thing to do is probably to move on and draft a QB.
Well this isn’t great for the Sam market but it’s also pretty fair value. Wentz was never worth what Philly wanted.
If he returns to 2017-2019 Wentz the Colts got a good deal. There's no way he can be as bad (and hated) as he was last year. But maybe I'm wrong. The escalators also would mean the Colts likely give away only a late first on the conditions.
