Darnold, Fields, Wilson, Jones, Trask, Lance

Have read numerous times that Douglas likes the measurable when people have discussed Fields vs Wilson.

Remember that Douglas was the one who found and fought for the Ravens to draft Flacco. So arm means more than other measurables.

 

SO whose arm do you think he favors?

 

In 73 days....

"With the 2nd Pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, The New York Jets select Zach Wilson, Quarterback, BYU."

 

Zach has now emerged as a solid favorite on betting sites to be selected as QB2, followed by Fields and then Lance.

 

They're essentially giving a 3.85% probability of Lawrence falling to us.

 

I don’t want Wilson.

If we are drafting a QB, I feel like passing on Fields will be a mistake.

One of the many issues Sam faces is that his seeming passivity does not command a room of men. I get the same vibes from Wilson.

 

From every game I watched, he is anything but passive, much to the contrary.

 

If it’s a 1A Wilson 1B Darnold scenario for the Jets, keeping Sam and trading back is what they should do.

 

I'm worried he's not sturdy enough and will ultimately get his head handed to him. Surgery already on his throwing shoulder, more surgery scheduled for his non-throwing shoulder? Holy Dee Milliner Batman...

 

Implied probability is more of a quick estimate. To be more accurate you need to take ALL implied probabilities, set up a proportion of that equaling 100, and then determine what this 3.8% implied probability means in actual terms. To make a long story short, in this case it looks like there is only about 2.5% chance of getting Lawrence, which sounds about right. By the same token there is 42% chance of getting Zach, 26% Fields, and 24% Lance.

 

I'm curious why you perceive Wilson to be "passive." The very first time I saw him play live (vs. Coastal Carolina) he concerned me because I thought he was too aggressive. On one run, instead of sliding, he hurled his throwing shoulder into the midsection of a defender. On another run, he hurdled a defender and landed on his head/shoulders. He also hurdled a defender his freshman season, and then got up like he was going to fight the defender. If anything, to me he seems too aggressive, too machismo.

I think both Wilson and Fields have plenty of fire and leadership.

 

That adds up to 94.5%. Where does the other 5.5% go?

 

I totally disagree. There's no way they should keep Sam and then trade back unless it's only 2-3 spots and then take Lance. Even that is risky. There's no way on earth the Jets should roll into the season with Sam and Morgan at QB or Sam, Beathard and Morgan at QB. IMO that would be a fireable offense by JD.

 

Both have a big arm, but could be this:

 

Jones and Trask.

 

Thanks.

 

I think it is extremely telling (assuming the rumors are true) that teams are offering first round picks for Sam.

 

We don't know what other teams are offering. Schefter is speculating that the Jets are being offered a 1st round pick because 4-5 teams are interested. They may just be kicking all the tires, doing their due diligence and may be offereing nowhere near a 1st round pick. Even if they are, I don't think other teams realize the depth of his issues. I've said for a while now that he probalby needs a change of scenery to succeed. Thus, he could have more value to other teams than he does the Jets. Those other teams may think that they can fix him, and may have the experienced coaches to do that. We don't imo, except at QB Coach.

Many, if not most, of the prospects coming into the NFL at QB these days have been playing QB since Pop Warner. They have received a lot of coaching along the way and many have gone to football camps numerous summers. Sam didn't play football at all until his sophomore year of high school, and then was a linebacker and WR and an emergency QB. He missed most of his Jr. year of high school, then played his Sr. year, and then didn't play the full season his freshman season at USC, then played his sophomore year and entered the draft. Thus he doesn't have as much experience at QB and his undestanding of how to play the position and football IQ is not on a partr with most other QBs imo. I think that's what hampers his ability to read Ds, his decision making, his running out of bounds and taking sacks instead of throwing the ball away, his TOs, etc. He may never be able to overcome that lack of experience and knowledge If he did refuse to change his footwork, then he may be uncoachable as well. I wish him and them good luck.

 

I actually have not heard a rumor someone offered a 1st rounder already, but would it be just as telling if no one offered a 1st round pick? If the best offer say ends up a 3d rounder or low second - below the spot where a guy say like Trask is picked? I suspect that's what's going to happen when it is all said and done.