He does point to us signing them as being a good thing. Also no point in analyzing his coverage ability. Indirectly here. I doubt we'll be in on either player. There was an article a while back on the 49ers offensive line and how they plug and play guards who fit their scheme and rarely pay a premium for them. I'll see if I can find it. Not sure why he brought up Iupati although you're right he does outline it being a bad signing.
https://jetsxfactor.com/2021/02/07/new-york-jets-free-agent-profile-detroit-lions-de-romeo-okwara/ New York Jets free agent profile: Detroit Lions DE Romeo Okwara By Michael Nania - 02/07/2021 Following a breakout 2020 season, Lions edge defender Romeo Okwara is one of the best potential pass-rushing solutions on the market for the Jets. Positives Elite pass-rush production in 2020 Amostly pedestrian defensive end for the New York Giants (2016-17) and Detroit Lions (2018-present) over the first four years of his career after being signed as an undrafted free agent out of Notre Dame in 2016, Okwara came out of nowhere with a massive breakout year in 2020, becoming one of the best pass rushers in football seemingly overnight. Okwara tied for fifth among edge rushers with 61 pressures, doing so at a tremendous level of efficiency as his 14.4% pressure rate ranked seventh-best out of 124 qualifiers at the position. Pro Football Focus saw his production as valid, scoring him with an 85.4 pass-rush grade that ranked ninth-best among qualified edge rushers. Consistency In 14 of his 16 games this past season, Okwara registered a pressure rate above the 2020 positional average for edge rushers, which was 9.7%. He was rarely completely silenced, logging at least two pressures in all but one of his games. Side-to-side versatility The Lions utilized Okwara frequently on both sides of their defense, as he rushed from the left side on 58.9% of his pass-rush snaps and from the right side on 41.1%. He was much more effective from the left side, where his 17.8% pressure rate ranked second-best among all qualified edge defenders behind only Joey Bosa. From the right side, Okwara had a solid pressure rate of 11.6%. Scheme fit Okwara lined up with his hand in the dirt on 81.0% of his snaps in 2020, making him an ideal fit for a Robert Saleh/Jeff Ulbrich defense that calls for hand-in-the-dirt defensive ends to man the edges. Durability Throughout his career, Okwara’s durability has been relatively solid. He has played 68 out of 81 possible regular season and playoff games in his career (84.0%). Outside of a 2017 season in which he only played six games due to a knee sprain, he has played 62 out of 65 games (95.4%) across his other four seasons. Okwara played all 16 games in 2020. Age Okwara will not turn 26 years old until June, making him the second-youngest impending unrestricted free agent edge rusher (among those to play 200+ snaps in 2020) behind Carl Lawson. Clean in the penalty department With only six career penalties over 2,521 defensive snaps, Okwara has averaged just 2.4 penalties per 1,000 snaps, barely more than half of the 2020 positional average at EDGE (4.5). Negatives Run defense Okwara put up some brutal numbers against the run this past season. His PFF run defense grade of 45.0 ranked 10th-worst among 124 qualifiers at the position (7th percentile). He collected just 13 run stops (tackles against the run that constitute a poor result for the offense) over 289 snaps against the run, a rate of 4.5%, which placed at the 25th percentile. It’s worth noting that Okwara’s numbers against the run were actually pretty good prior to 2020. From 2016-19, his composite run defense grade at PFF was 69.9, a number that would have placed him at the 78th percentile among qualified edge rushers in 2020. Tackling Finishing plays is an issue for Okwara, who ranked fourth at his position with 12 missed tackles. It was a problem for him in both phases as he missed seven tackles against the run and five against the pass. Similar to his run defense, it has to be taken into account that Okwara’s tackling was not a problem for him before 2020. Okwara had a 21.4% missed tackle rate in 2020 (44 tackles, 12 misses). From 2016-19, he had an 8.7% miss rate (95 tackles, 9 misses). His 2020 season was an enormous outlier The conundrum for teams pursuing Okwara is that his 2020 season looks completely different than what he put on his resume over his first four seasons. Over his first four seasons, Okwara was not even remotely close to as good of a pass rusher as he was in 2020. His pressure rate from 2016-19 was 8.2%, a good deal below the 2020 positional average of 9.7%. His best single-season PFF pass-rush grade over that span was a 58.3 in 2019, which ranked at the position’s 21st percentile that year. In 2018, his 50.3 pass-rush grade ranked at the 5th percentile. On the other hand, Okwara wasn’t as bad of a run defender and tackler as he was in 2020, so he is due for some improvement in those areas. However, pass rushing is what gets front-seven players paid, and with Okwara’s 2020 pass-rush production standing out as such a big outlier compared to the rest of his career, it will be hard for teams to trust that he can maintain the same level of output. Film Okwara’s best attributes as a pass rusher are his length and his hand usage. His wins tend to be a result of good technique rather than raw speed, power or athleticism. Standing at six-foot-five and 265 pounds, Okwara boasts 34⅛-inch arms, a number that puts him at the 72nd percentile among edge rushers measured at the NFL Draft Combine. He combines his long arms with savvy hands to make a lot of noise off the edge. There are video clips in the article.
https://jetsxfactor.com/2021/02/10/...-targets/?mc_cid=053eae5d1c&mc_eid=90b98ab2f5 Ranking the New York Jets top 15 free agent targets By Robby Sabo - 02/10/2021 We have reached the NFL’s first dead month of the calendar year. It’s February, post-Super Bowl, which means free agent noise will exist from now until sometime in March when the free-agency rage slows down a bit. Dead month or not, the rumors are still flying all over the place. For instance, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported Tuesday that the New York Jets will be “taking a look” at free-agent wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and Will Fuller. What does it mean exactly? I don’t know. Just add another rumor onto the already-ridiculous pile. As fast as ESPN’s Adam Schefter “reported” that the Jets were leaning towards keeping Sam Darnold, is as seemingly as quick as he reversed course as of late. Sure, information changes and reporters should act accordingly, but nobody would ever know what a Joe Douglas-run franchise will be committing to in January. It was simply too early to report anything. Whatever. The moral of the story is this: The noise simply won’t stop, which means the Jets’ interest in any particular free agent needs to be taken with a serious grain of salt. But while you cautiously deflect the noise, take in Jets X-Factor’s free-agent rankings. 15. J.C. Jackson, CB (RFA) J.C. Jackson‘s production has quietly improved over the last three seasons. The 6-foot-1 outside corner allowed a 47.2 passer rating, while yielding an insane 5-to-14 touchdown-to-interception ratio and just 6.4 yards per target (Dec. 4, 2020), per Jets X-Factor’s Michael Nania. While he also may come at a cheaper price, the problem lies in his restricted free agent status. Would the Jets be willing to dish out a first-round pick if Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots slap a first-round tender on him? 14. Carl Lawson, EDGE Carl Lawson, a fourth-round pick out of Auburn, has racked up 20 sacks in 51 games and just 14 starts. At 265 pounds, he can easily fit one of Robert Saleh‘s EDGE roles. 13. Desmond King, SCB Desmond King is already 26 years old, believe it or not, and he’s even been a first-team All-Pro player. (Albeit, it came by way of special teams in 2018.) Few have excelled in the slot quite like King. King’s candidacy from a Jets perspective revolves around Brian Poole. Will Douglas bring back the suddenly oft-injured Poole or go in another direction? How do they feel about Javelin Guidry? While Poole’s physicality is appealing, King is younger and more reliable (missing just three games in four seasons). 12. Brandon Scherff, IOL The reason Brandon Scherff is so low on the list is simple: The man simply cannot stay healthy. Availability is always the best ability and the Washington Football Team stud guard has missed 18 games over the last four seasons. The Jets cannot pay that much money for a guy who misses that much time. 11. Jayon Brown, LB Jayon Brown represents a sneaky free-agent add for this team. First and foremost, he shouldn’t cost too much. Secondly, the kid is perfect in Saleh’s defense. What the Jets need at the second level (linebacker) are athletic guys who can cover. Brown finished 20th overall at the position, with a 66.4 grade, but he finished 11th in coverage (73.5). Without many linebacker options on the open market, Brown could be crucial. Douglas may have to draft a guy, regardless. 10. Romeo Okwara, EDGE EDGE is by far the most plentiful position on the list. And despite the idea that most of these guys won’t become free agents—through franchise tags or otherwise—the Jets need to snag at least one. Romeo Okwara fits the bill. The Notre Dame product whose brother, Julian Okwara, disappointed greatly in his rookie campaign, tallied 10 sacks for the Detroit Lions this past season. He’s in line for a big payday after his fifth season, but this past year marks his only double-digit sack campaign. 9. Bud Dupree, EDGE Bud Dupree‘s Jets candidacy is an interesting one. He’d be coming over from the Pittsburgh Steelers where he played EDGE from a 3-4 outside linebacker spot. By no means is it a dealbreaker, but he’s another guy who’s missed some games (five in 2020). He has the right size and can absolutely get it done out of the 4-3—as he played it in college—but I’d rank others ahead of him.
8. Richard Sherman, CB He’s old, he’s slower, yet he’s what this defense needs. Never underestimate what a veteran leader can do for a young team. Two years ago, Richard Sherman was tremendous. But once the injuries happened upfront and the pass rush wasn’t legitimate anymore, Sherman’s production dropped a bit (ranked 38th by PFF in 2020). Still, the Jets can use the guy on a mid-level deal that doesn’t break the bank. 7. Daniel Carlson, K (RFA) The second restricted free agent of the bunch is Daniel Carlson, a kid the Las Vegas Raiders won’t want to see get away. But if they do put a lower tender on him or fail to retain his services, the Jets should jump at the chance to acquire this kicker. 6. Kyle Juszczyk, FB A lot of folks won’t like seeing a fullback in the No. 6 spot, but Kyle Shanahan’s offense demands that position. Sure, Trevon Wesco does a tremendous job, but having two guys who can get it done there is essential. Juszczyk is still arguably the best fullback in the game. The Jets should target him high in order to give the offense a much-needed facelift. Having Wesco blocking in-line more often will also help. 5. Allen Robinson, WR Yes, Allen Robinson fits the Jets’ outside need perfectly. And interestingly enough, many onlookers believe he’s looking to land in Florham Park, NJ. How much it’ll cost Douglas and the Jets remains the all-important question. Remember, Douglas won’t break the bank this offseason. Free agency is never used by the good ones in order to build a team, rather only to simply top off the already-built infrastructure that came from the NFL draft. 4. Shaquil Barrett, EDGE The odds that Shaquil Barrett gets away from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are slim. After piling up 19.5 sacks in 2019, he returned in 2020 to finish third in EDGE pressures (behind only Joey Bosa and Carl Lawson). A tremendous argument exists that he should be the top EDGE free agent on this list. 3. Trey Hendrickson, EDGE Perhaps the only reason Trey Hendrickson ranks ahead of Shaq Barrett is that it’s more likely the former gets to free agency than the latter. Also, the former is coming from a 4-3 base while the latter worked out of a 3-4. The third-round pick in 2017 completely busted out this past season, tallying 13.5 sacks. 2. Curtis Samuel, WR Curtis Samuel outranks Allen Robinson thanks to the nature of today’s sport. Conventional wisdom leads most Jets fans to believe an outside threat is what’s needed at the position. With Jamison Crowder inside and Denzel Mims outside, another outside guy is required. Not exactly. While Crowder is a tremendous slot guy, he offers very little by way of the “X-Factor” stuff. He’s not a threat to run the ball or be a consistent jet-motion guy. It’s a prototype the Jets have lacked for seemingly forever. And now with the jet-sweep and edge-attacking college-principled schemes running rampant, the “X-Factor” type is more of a need than an outside threat. Samuel’s ridiculous speed and agile hips would absolutely fit alongside Crowder and Mims. But more importantly, he adds a dimension every good offense needs in today’s NFL. Ideally, the Jets would employ two outside threats and have their slot receiver assume the “X-Factor” role, but Crowder just isn’t built that way. So if Samuel is the guy over Robinson—which would be a much cheaper option—the team’s No. 4 guy will need to be another outside threat (via NFL draft, most likely). 1. Joe Thuney, IOL Without a doubt, Joe Thuney needs to be the Jets’ top free-agent target. The interior of the offensive line needs serious help and Thuney, a guy the Jets were connected to last year before the Pats franchise tagged him, will help ease the woes. PFF ranked Thuney 10th at the guard position a year ago. Perhaps what’s most attractive is the fact this man hasn’t missed a game in five seasons. Thuney needs to be the New York Jets’ undoubted No. 1 free-agent target this March. **** I really like this list with an exception or two. If J.C. Jackson would cost even a 2nd round pick, forget him. IMO there's no way a FB should even be under consideration. It's a luxury and a waste of FA $s. The Jets have Wesco and perhaps they can use a backup OL/DL or sign a UDFA to back up Wesco. I don't think Dupree will leave Pittsburgh or Barrett would leave Tampa Bay. Both would probably cost too much anyway. I hope that we can sign Hendrickson or if not, Okwara could be a decent consolation prize. I'd love to see JD sign Thuney, Robinson or Samuel, Hendrickson, Brown, Carlson, and Sherman (if he is willing to sign a reasonable deal).
I agree with NC's top 15 list in that Thuney and Samuel are our top 2 free agent priorities. But I would rank Morton or Williams at RT as number 3. Cut Fant and use the money to greatly upgrade the position.
@NCJetsfan I think you may well need to get used to a FB again, they certainly used one on the Niners, Kyle Juszczyk may well be the best but he is very expensive for a FB, but that was 4 years ago, will the price go down a bit now, you wouldn't pay $21m for a 4 year contract to a 29yo FB? I can see them maybe drafting one lower down the draft
To be clear, it's not my list. I can't take credit for it. It's Robby Sabo's list. My list of potential FAs would have included some of the names, but not all. I would love adding Morton or Williams at RT, if it didn't preclude our adding Thuney, Robinson or Samuel, and Hendrickson.
I do not know the market price on these RTs. Conklin got 14 mill a year for 3 years or 14 million. The Jets save 7.35 million by cutting Fant. If we end up paying 12 million it would cost us 4.65 million to upgrade from Fant. In regards to Robinson I don't see a reason why the Bears will not franchise him for 15.3 million. I really doubt he makes it to FA.
I don't have a problem with FBs per se. I just don't think we should use FA $ or cap space to sign an expensive one. No, I wouldn't sign him for half that much. He'd have to be the second coming of that great FB the Niners had during the Walsh/Montana/Rice dynasty. Even then, at 29, by the time the team is ready to be a serious contender, he'll be retired or ready to retire. They can draft one in a low round or sign one as a UDFA or use a backup OL/DL to back up Wesco imo.
He may not, but he could refuse to sign the franchise tag. I'd love to add Robinson, but think I'd probably be just as happy with Godwin or Samuel, and maybe even Golladay or Davis. Just as long as it isn't Will Fuller or Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster.
https://jetsxfactor.com/2021/01/26/jets-2021-free-agency-ranking-free-agent-wide-receivers/ Jets 2021 free agency: Ranking the wide receivers from best to worst By Michael Nania - 01/26/2021 Ranking 47 impending free agent wide receivers from best to worst, based on an accumulation of their 2020 statistics. Using an agglomeration of five different key statistics, I ranked the 47 impending free agent wide receivers that played at least 200 offensive snaps in 2020. This is the first in a series of articles that will rank all of the qualified free agents at key positions of need for the New York Jets. The players were ranked according to their average percentile ranking among 163 qualified wide receivers in these five statistics: Receiving yards per game: This is the only stat of the five that is volume-based rather than efficiency-based. I decided to include it in order to prevent players who produced at a high level of efficiency on a very low volume from ascending too far up the list. Overall Pro Football Focus grade: PFF’s overall offensive grade accounts for most aspects of the position, taking into account volume, efficiency, drops, the difficulty of catches made, extra production created after the catch, and run blocking. Altogether, it does a good job of separating receivers who create their own production through fantastic individual efforts from receivers who are a product of their surroundings and rack up easy production. Poorly-graded receivers tend to drop a high rate of passes, win a low percentage of contested-catch situations, and consistently fail to create yardage after the catch beyond what is presented to them. Yards per route run: Formula: receiving yards divided by routes run. The average amount of receiving yards gained per snap in which the player ran a route on a passing play. This stat combines per-target efficiency with target volume for a solid all-encompassing number regarding yardage production. Percentage of routes gaining a first down or touchdown: It is important to look beyond solely yardage totals when evaluating receivers. Yardage doesn’t tell us everything, as not every yard carries the same value. A receiver can gain one yard on a go-ahead touchdown or gain six yards on a fourth-and-7 catch that yields nothing of value for his team. Yardage totals also tend to favor explosive-play receivers who make a handful of big plays over quick-hitting chain-movers who make an abundance of solid plays. A receiver can have a 90-yard game with one catch while another receiver can dominate a game with six first downs and two touchdowns while only gaining 80 yards. The second receiver was clearly better, but the yardage totals suggest otherwise. Including one per-route stat for yardage and one per-route stat for conversions gives all different types of receivers a chance to fly up the leaderboard. DVOA: Defense-adjusted value over average, via Football Outsiders. This stat estimates the true impact of all targets thrown in a receiver’s direction by using factors such as down, distance, field position, game situation, and the quality of the opposing defense. Here it is: 47 of the top 2021 free agent wide receivers, ranked. Takeaways Corey Davis is a legitimate top-tier option Regardless of the numbers, I will not argue that Davis is a better player than the likes of Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay or Allen Robinson, but he certainly should be considered in the same ballpark as those three receivers and the rest of the premier names on the market. Davis took his game to an entirely new level in 2020, making a star-level impact through an absurd level of efficiency. Despite ranking 51st in the NFL in targets (92), Davis ranked 25th in receiving first downs (49) and 20th in receiving yards (984). Among the 43 wide receivers with at least 90 targets, Davis’ average of 10.7 yards per target ranked second behind only Justin Jefferson (11.2). Davis led that bunch with a first down or touchdown on 53.3% of his targets. Travis Kelce was the only player in the league to post a better rate over at least 90 targets (60.7%). The big questions for Davis are his consistency and his ability to handle a larger volume. On the consistency front, it is concerning that Davis had three zero-yard performances in 2020 (including the Titans’ Wild Card loss to Baltimore). In terms of his capability of being a team’s top dog, Davis’ relatively low target volume – 6.6 targets per game in 2020 and 6.0 for his career – is a red flag. Top receivers typically see 7-8 targets per game at the very least. It’s also worth noting that he had the luxury of playing alongside an elite receiver in A.J. Brown. Whether or not Davis can be a true “No. 1” type of receiver and maintain his production over a larger volume remains to be seen, but it cannot be debated that he was one of the most efficient players in football at any position in 2020. He’s going to get paid by some offense-needy franchise out there. Will that team get a strong return on its investment?
Rashard Higgins, Allen Lazard, Isaiah McKenzie highlight potential steals Three particular players stand out with excellent efficiency over a smaller volume – Higgins, Lazard and McKenzie. Higgins’ raw totals don’t pop out – 599 yards and four touchdowns over 13 games – but he made the most of his opportunities. Racking up that production over only 52 targets, Higgins ranked second in the NFL among qualified players in yards per target with a mark of 11.5, trailing only Will Fuller‘s 11.7. His DVOA of +29.4% ranked third among wide receivers with at least 50 targets, trailing Fuller (+41.2%) and Julio Jones (+29.7%). While one must be wary when evaluating Lazard’s production due to the simple fact that he played with Aaron Rodgers, his numbers are impressive nonetheless. If we knock the filter down to 40 targets, Lazard’s DVOA of +27.4% ranked fourth at his position behind Higgins, Julio, and Fuller. Lazard recorded a conversion on 23 of his 46 targets (50.0%), catching 33 passes for 451 yards (9.6 per target). Over two playoff games, Lazard picked up 158 yards over 14 targets (11.3 per target). Averaging only 17.6 receiving yards per game in the regular season, McKenzie is the ultimate wild card of the group. He was a conversion machine. McKenzie picked up 17 conversions (5 touchdowns and 12 first downs) over just 142 routes run, a 12.0% rate that placed seventh among qualified wide receivers behind only DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, Corey Davis, A.J. Brown and Davante Adams. That rate barely edged Stefon Diggs‘ 11.9% rate, which checked in one spot below McKenzie on the list. Standing at five-foot-eight and 173 pounds, McKenzie is primarily a slot weapon, but not exclusively. He ran 68.3% of his routes out of the slot. The slot is where he did most of his damage, though, catching all five of his touchdowns from a slot alignment. Doing that over just 97 routes out of the slot, McKenzie’s average of 19.4 slot routes per touchdown reception ranked second among qualifiers behind only Antonio Brown (17.0). JuJu Smith-Schuster may be fool’s gold Smith-Schuster does not offer the production to match the hype that he typically generates. While he scored a career-best nine touchdowns in 2020, Smith-Schuster still landed in the position’s bottom half of overall PFF grade, yards per route run, and DVOA while landing only slightly above the median in conversion frequency. The explosiveness that Smith-Schuster was once known for went out the window this season. Entering the year with a strong average of 13.7 yards per reception, he averaged a paltry 8.6 yards a pop in 2020, resulting in a career-low 6.5 yards per target. Pittsburgh peppered him with quick throws, as his 4.4 air yards per reception ranked fourth-lowest among wide receivers with at least 40 targets, but Smith-Schuster did little with those short throws. He tied for 86th among wide receivers in yards after catch per reception (4.2) and 124th in broken tackles per reception (0.04 with 4 on 97 catches). This is the second consecutive disappointing season for Smith-Schuster since he broke out in 2018 with 111 catches for 1,428 yards and seven touchdowns at just 22 years old. In 2019, Smith-Schuster averaged only 46.0 yards per game while recording a conversion on a lowly 32.9% of his targets. Since Antonio Brown skipped town, Smith-Schuster has averaged 49.4 yards per game and 7.0 yards per target with a conversion on 35.9% of his targets. Not turning 25 years old until November, Smith-Schuster is the second-youngest wide receiver in the entire 47-player group (older than only the Jets’ Jeff Smith), so he has as much time as any fifth-year player to find his groove. However, as things stand, there will be plenty of receivers on the market who offer a more reliable track record of performance than Smith-Schuster – many of them coming at a much cheaper price tag. If you enjoyed this leaderboard, make sure to subscribe to Jets X-Factor (first month free and a portion of proceeds donated to COVID-19 relief in NYC) to ensure access to all future rankings.
Should the Jets pursue him? Are there other WR's you prefer in free agency/draft? Do you like him in the Shanahan scheme? If I were Joe Douglas, I would prefer we sign Robinson over other players in free agency due to the fact that most rookie WRs need time to develop. Robinson is ready to come in and contribute right away and it would open things up tremendously for Mims and Crowder. Let me know what you guys think and please consider subscribing if you use Youtube for Jets content : )
Penny. Great work. To avoid multiple threads for each FA, would you mind collecting everything on One Thread? Like I said, awesome work as always.
I created the FA & Potential Roster Moves thread hoping that all FA info would go into there. You could merge this thread into mine, and he could post there rest in that thread.
There's nothing wrong with profiling individual FA targets in their own thread imo. And yes! Robinson should absolutely be a top target. Perhaps even the top priority signing. Not to relive past pain, but the 2014 draft was so ridiculously rich in WR prospects. In the 2nd round, with Davante Adams, Robinson and Landry all available...all of which I really liked......Idzik took Jace Amaro. Ugh, a slow TE who refused to block, and with a shit attitude to boot. Worst draft this team has ever had.
Leave it stand alone for a while so we can discuss them individually. When it dies down a bit merge it.
