Great post. I agree with most of it. I do have a few small disagreements. I don't think that the Jets are considering Sewell at all. JD realizes that is a luxury the Jets can't afford, that they need a QB, this is a great QB draft, they're in position to get one they want, and that it would be unwise not to take the QB. Further, I believe the Jets will love (or already do love) two or more of these QBs, and also love Watson. One of Watson, Wilson, Fields and Lance will be our QB. Prescott has already been re-signed by Dallas, and was never really an option imo. He was cost prohibitive. Even if they could have worked it under the cap, it would have been unwise to sign a QB for which the cap hit would have been so big for a rebuilding team. They have a lot of holes and need some veteran leadership. Similarly, Jameis Winston was never a possibility either, due to his stupidity in continually turning the ball over. For the same reason (turnovers), inconsistency, flawed footwork, inability to see the field, and poor decision making, Sam is not really a long-term option. I believe the Jets have already made up their minds to move on from Sam. Goff was never an option. They weren't going to trade draft capital for a QB of his level. Garrapolo isn't good enough, so like Goff, was never really was an option, either, except as a one-year stop gap until the rookie took over/insurance, and they weren't going to burn draft capital to bring him in for one year. If JD fails to get Watson in a trade and then takes Sewell, or gets greedy trades down, and then misses on Wilson, Fields and Lance, then he should be fired imo. That would Idzik-level decision making. I would then lose all trust in his knowledge and ability.
I agree with a lot of what you have to say so I won't nitpick any of it. I do agree with you about Smith in many ways, but some players just have that it factor. IMO, he does. I just saw Mel Kiper rank him #2 overall. That is after I said to move up and take him. Now, I'm not saying Mel is some expert, but still, that is high praise for a WR who he's probably watched every play of his career. However, I'm perfectly fine going with your scenario where Mims becomes our #1 WR. I have several different plans in place because we have so many options this season. The #1 thing I want out of this offseason is to get really good players. Not just fillers, I want greatness out of every draft pick and free-agent signing. I want to finally get guys who come in right away & look like they're going to be special. That is why I will trade up in this draft at any point to get the player I think will be great. I will only sign players who have what it takes to build a championship team. I will not waste money on mediocrity. I will trade my mid to later round picks to acquire another 2nd rounder or 3rd rounder since this draft is loaded in the first 3 rounds. I will constantly look to be in a position to get certain players. Quality over quantity is my motto this offseason. A football fan usually goes for quantity over quality before a draft/free agency. I want to do it differently this offseason. If we only end up with 5 draft picks. Let them all be good/great, rather than have 10 picks where 8 are gone within 2 years. I want a great LB. In the Super Bowl Romo talked about Levante David knocking Kelce off-balance all game, which IMO made a huge difference on the entire defense and through off Mahomes' timing. I was actually looking at signing David this offseason since he is a F/A, however, his age may not mesh with our time-table. We need someone like him otherwise you get killed on those quick slants. LB should be a top priority this offseason. This will be the most challenging position to fill unless we give a ton of money to David. But then we probably would have Watson as our QB as we would be in a win-now mode. I wouldn't mind taking Wilson at 2 and using my scenario where I trade up to get the players I think will be great. Smith may not be in the cards, but I would still move up to get the players I want, rather sitting back waiting for players to fall. That is my philosophy this offseason.
I applaud that you want quality over quantity, especially when many fans are willing to sacrifice quality for quantity. We have a lot of needs, but they're not all going to get filled this year anyway. I want great players with each pick too, but unfortunately, that's just not very realistic. If JD hits on 70-80% of his draft picks, he will be doing great. The key is not missing on the 1st and 2nd rounders. The thing that you might want to consider is what happened with Tanny. He did what you say you would do, i.e., trade up to get quality. His approach left holes and little or no depth. One simply cannot trade up very often, and when one does, one has to balance that with trading back and adding additional picks. The draft is a crapshoot. Shifting from the base 3-4 to 4-3 means that more holes will be created. Henry Anderson will probably be released as he isn't a fit in a 4-3 and could give us additional cap space. Jordan Jenkins probably won't be re-signed, nor will Neville Hewitt. Perriman (injuries and inconsistent production) and Poole (injuries) probably won't be re-signed. I don't think we have any true 4-3 DEs on the roster, or at least topnotch ones, so that's two more holes. I'm sorry, but the reality is that we simply cannot afford to trade up this year to get players. Maybe in a couple of years that will become an option again, but we need to fill holes with solid, productive football players. We have too many players that aren't NFL caliber starters or backups. The reality also is that sometimes, perhaps fairly often, players taken in the middle and even lower rounds can wind up better than players at their positions taking in early rounds. That's why trading up is not a good idea to do very often. Trading back and getting more picks can be a very good thing on occasion. We all know Parcells traded down in the 1st round and again in the 3rd round, and passed up on two HOF LTs in the '97 draft and wound up with Jason Ferguson, Leon Johnson, Dedric Ward, two busts (Terry Day and Chuck Clements) and an average or slightly above average LB in James Farrior and who only became a really good player after we traded him away. We had a ton of holes and didn't have 2nd and 3rd round picks due to luring Parcells away from the Patriots. Overall, Parcells did well with the picks he got, and the point can reasonably be made that the combination of Farrior, Ferguson, and Johnson helped the team more than Orlando Pace or Walter Jones would have. The more picks one has the better one's chances of getting productive players. Thus, I can understand why a number of posters here want to trade back from #2 for a haul of picks. It's exciting to think about the possibilities of what could happen and how many holes could be filled. The reality is, however, that JD is not going to hit on all of his picks. The reality is also that we need a QB, and with QB being the most important position and with this at least appearing to be a great draft for QBs, we need to get our QB now. It's also important to get him here this year so he can start learning the offense and developing chemistry and timing with his offensive teammates, so that the team can become truly competitive sooner. It's also important that the offense be built around our new QB. I'm glad that you realize that we need to get our QB now. I just wish that the others could/would see that. IMO it's sad, but just not realistic to think that we can build around Sam and succeed. I understand your and others' love for Smith. He was a great, dynamic player this past season. He has great character. If he can stay healthy, he possibly can be a star in the NFL, but at his size, I'll be surprised if he can stay healthy. I, too, want a great LB. If we didn't need a QB so desperately, it would have been great to take Micah Parsons, as I think he can possibly become that great LB we want.
McShay said on ESPN that he has Wilson in a tier by himself under Lawrence, then everyone else, and he'd be shocked if we don't pick Wilson if we stay at 2. We know who McShay is friends with...
I think there could be fire behind this "Douglas is friends with these guys" smoke but I think it's also just the way the board is playing out in general. Wilson seems to be the higher rated prospect. This is just the first time I've seen someone say Wilson is on a whole different level than Fields.
This mock makes a lot more sense than the first one. He has 4 QBs going top 5, and Mac Jones at #12. No Sewell for Jets at #2. Not sure if it plays out like that, but he now recognizes this is a very strong QB class. If Wilson measures well, he is a lock at #2. This is especially important, because 2 years ago when he got right shoulder surgery for torn labrum, he mentioned he also has a torn labrum on left shoulder, which prevented him from lifting weights, and said he will have surgery on that one too. Apparently, he never got a surgery on left shoulder and labrum healed on its own. Now, if he is able to bulk up, this will indicate that left shoulder is fine also as he is now able to lift weights, which is really all he needs it for. Otherwise he might need to have that surgery after all, like Lawrence is doing now. He did say when the season concluded that he was looking forward to putting on weight. So, I for one am really looking forward to these measurements, as they will answer a lot of important questions about Zach.
It could ultimately be true. But I find it hard for the Jets to have decided on who they're picking before the pre-draft meetings. If they have, I think that's an oversight in how they're handling the process. If we take Wilson, I hope he's a stud.
I'm starting to come around on Wilson, although he is still a huge douche risk in the personality dept and there's something odd about his throwing motion. His touch is really impressive and his anticipation is at the level of an NFL veteran, it's crazy. His arm is strong enough, although the weird throwing motion makes it hard to buy into how strong that arm is. His ball fakes are freaking awesome in PA and he goes through progressions pretty regular. Still the main concern is level of competition and health, maybe with health being higher, although the labrum and broken hand might be making me think too much of Pennington and how easily he would get hurt. He seriously reeks of frat boy though.
"Huge douch risk" is an excellent QB evaluation stat. Certainly has to be taken into account. Seriously though hopefully we get Watson and all is moot.
It's actually a good way to measure all players. Jamal Adams had a 96.4 douche rating and look what happened with that guy. Super duper advanced analytics is the way to go.
Works for coaches too, that's why it blew me away when we hired Gase with a 98.9 douche rating. Highest among all candidates at the time.
Don't hold your breath. Watson is not even on trading block, and Houston can wait on him for over a year easy. If by some miracle he will be traded to Jets for a good price, it will be a bonus, but by no means something that is likely. Zach Wilson on the other hand IS very likely and definitely there in case JD wants him. As far as "douch risk", this is the least of my concerns. It's basically been debunked. It's a rumor that started for sole reason that he comes from rich family with nothing at all to it. Even this anonymous source said "rich kid who is an entitled brat - uncle owns Jet Blue". It's almost given as a reason that he is entitled brat BECAUSE he uncle owns Jet Blue. I watched a lot of his interviews. Every time very respectful, giving credit to the team and other players all the time. Teammates really wanted him back after last game. When this rumor came out coaches and players came to his defense. We gotta be able to sift through this BS.
I like Wilson as a player too but I find it hard to get over the injury concerns...He also just doesn’t seem “solid”, like he would get crushed by NFL defenses. I don’t know...I compare him to Fields and Lawrence and it seems like they’re going to be fine taking hits whereas he will constantly be dinged up or hurt. I have nothing to back it up except eye test and his injury history but it would worry me.
